NightWatch

For the Night of 26 October 2009

Administrative Note: The NightWatch edition prior to this was 22 October.

North Korea-US: The BBC reported US and North Korean negotiators met in New York, supposedly to discuss resuming the Six Party talks, according to the press. The NightWatch hypothesis takes North Korean statements at their word, namely, that Six Party Talks will never resume. The most authoritative media outlets in North Korean declared those talks dead.

The North Koreans want to hold discussions with American negotiators which they apparently got in New York at a working level. Progress in the bilateral discussions is a condition for just talking about multi-lateral talks in some venue, but not Six Party Talks.

North Korea: Update. South Korean officials leaked that North Korea has completed the construction of its largest and most sophisticated missile base on the west coast, Yonhap reported. One official said North Korea has been testing missile parts such as boosters at the Dongchang-ri base located 200km northwest of Pyongyang and 70km west of the main nuclear complex in Yongbyon. Another official said it is a leap in North Korea's ballistic missile development, adding the construction ended "only recently."

This is the missile test facility that is oriented to shoot missiles southwards in the general direction of the Philippines. The east coast facility at Musudan is oriented to shoot missiles eastwards over Japan

India-Pakistan: Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik said he is convinced India is among those backing the Taliban in an attempt to destabilize Pakistan, The Times of India reported 26 October, citing an interview on television in which Malik was responding to a journalist's question. "I have no doubt about it. I was very open. I have given the full details," Malik said

India denied Malik's statements, Indo Asian News Service reported, citing Indian External Affairs Ministry sources. Calling Malik's statements groundless, Indian sources said India's stand on the Taliban is well known and that Pakistan should break down militancy aimed at India.

Comment: The juxtaposition of the two statements in light of recent history exposes paranoid thinking in Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban are the creation of the Pashtuns with Pakistani official support. The Indians supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. The Pakistani Taliban are a home grown movement produced mostly by the Pakistan Army and intelligence service under Musharraf.

Indian forces have humiliated Pakistani forces in two wars. If India wanted to destabilize the government of Pakistan it could have replaced it, but chose not to take responsibility for more Muslims on both occasions. The last thing India wants is an Islamic extremist, religiously intolerant, anti-Hindu government in Islamabad.

Pakistan’s Malik is not remembering his history clearly. His admirable, passionate defense of Pakistan would be more persuasive were it backed by an accurate factual record.

Pakistan: Update. Schools in Sindh and Punjab Provinces and Islamabad reopened after being closed down last week because of security concerns, GEO TV reported today. The government directed security agencies and concerned departments to take steps to ensure foolproof security at educational institutions across Pakistan. Educational institutions in Baluchistan Province remain closed for three more days in light of the murder of Baluchistan’s Education Minister. North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) schools are closed until 1 November.

The operations in South Waziristan continue at a pace that ensures the safety of most of the Mahsud tribal fighters. Any left behind are the rear guard. The Army operations have been reported in the open since June. The Mahsuds have had more than three months to prepare and relocate. The good news from such advance publicity is that resistance and casualties are light.

Pakistan-Iran: For the record. The international media reported eleven “elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps” members were arrested today near Mashkel just inside Pakistan.

During this Watch, CBS News reported Pakistan released the Iranians who said they acted in hot pursuit of smugglers. Despite the media attempt at high drama, the men proved to be border guards trying to stop smuggling. It is difficult to associate the adjective “elite” with the Rev Guards. Thuggish would work, but not elite. No crisis here.

Afghanistan: Angry protests erupted in Kabul for a second day, as demonstrators injured 15 officers while pelting police with stones in protest over allegations that Western troops burned a Koran, Agence France-Presse reported 26 October. Interior Ministry spokesman Bashari said hundreds of demonstrators gathered on the northern outskirts of the capital preparing to march into the city while some hurled stones at riot police who tried to bring them under control. He added that police have been extra tolerant trying to avoid any scuffle with the protesters.

Special Comment: Americans would be justifiably confused by statements about Afghanistan in the past few days.

First, today, Senator John Kerry was quoted as saying, in paraphrase, that unless the US and NATO succeeds in Afghanistan, Pakistan will become the epicenter of international terrorism. Someone should tell Kerry’s staff that Pakistan already is the epicenter of international terrorism. There are virtually no international terrorists continuously in Afghanistan. McChrystal says so. It’s in his report if the staff cared to read it.

Second, a national radio news reporter admitted to concern because fighting remains high, supposedly for this time of year. The reporter said the Taliban fighters normally winter in Pakistan!! This statement is wrong in so many ways there is not space to correct it

The Taliban fighters winter in their home villages in Afghanistan. They do not all go to Pakistan and return in the spring. Winters are not particularly harsh in the south, but south of the Hindu Kush the winter lull begins in December or January, depending on actually weather conditions. There is still time for much fighting.

Third, a news account quoted a frustrated US soldier who asked, “Why don’t they understand we are here to help them?” Vietnam redux. The word help is not a universally understood or accepted concept and carries enormous cultural baggage, even in the US.

In Afghanistan, the Pashtuns did not request help and distrust outside help as a form of suppression. US soldiers need to be told that.

It would be more honest, better understood and more effective for the NATO soldiers to say they are the agents of the central Afghanistan government and its allies; are present to show the Pashtuns that the government can reach them; that they owe it loyalty and in return for loyalty they will receive improvements. And then deliver on that promise. That kind of clarity would be helpful, in fact.

Our language of helping is culturally bounded. Outside our culture, and often within it, “I’m here to help you” implies inferiority, weakness, insult and debasement, however well intended. Moreover, help is not easily translatable to people who think the only help they need is to get rid of the foreigners and all will be well. What do NATO soldiers do when the elders say they do not want their help; they just want them to leave?

Kyrgyzstan: About 60 French and 50 Spanish troops, with two C-130 Hercules transport planes, left Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan on 25 October, after the expiration of user agreements between the nations, Kazakhstan Today reported 26 October, citing a spokesman for the Center of Transit Transportations. The deal with Spain expired 13 October; the arrangement with France ended 9 October.

Like the US, both use Manas to support their contingents in Afghanistan. They failed to get extensions for their access agreements and must now re-negotiate. Both will eventually get access restored, but the price will have gone up significantly, no doubt.

Iran: Foreign Minister Mottaki said Tehran may agree to ship part of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment per a U.N.-drafted plan, the Associated Press reported 26 October. Mottaki said Iran is weighing between the U.N.-drafted plan or buying its own enriched uranium. In either case, he said, Iran will also continue to enrich its own uranium. He added that Iran will make its decision within the next few days.

The Iranian slow roll continues. If a little uranium sent to Russia will placate the West, Iran might send a little. It will not surrender its nuclear program to outsiders.

Iraq: Latest news reports state that 155 people died and more than 500 were injured in the weekend twin bomb blasts in Baghdad. Despite tightened security precautions instituted after the August blast in which 100 people were killed by a truck bomb, the bombers struck again. Trucks were waved through checkpoints and traveled streets barred to truck traffic in order to reach the targets.

Nothing has been settled in Iraq. The power sharing arrangements are ineffective in ensuring security. The grudge match between Sunnis and Shia is still not joined, but it gets closer.

Israel: Street clashes occurred on 25 October near the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem between rock-throwing Palestinians and Israeli police. On 9 October similar clashes occurred. Palestinians accused the police of violating sacred Muslim ground. The Israelis denied it but the published press images tend to support the Palestinians.

The danger is that this is how the second intifadah started, from small events that escalated.

Somalia-Uganda: All Somali visitors and refugees arriving in Uganda are to be registered in response to militants threatening to attack the capital, Kampala. Somali community leaders living in Kampala said they would help to root out any insurgents. Earlier al-Shabaab leaders said they would attack Kampala because Ugandan soldiers were serving with the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia, protecting the Transitional Federal Government’s part of Modadishu.

Zimbabwe: Update. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai ended talks on power-sharing with President Robert Mugabe with no agreement, a spokesman for the prime minister said. The four-hour meeting was the first time the prime minister met with the president since pulling out of the coalition government on 16 October. A spokesman for Mr Tsvangirai said both men were "worlds apart" on many issues.

Mr Tsvangirai withdrew from a coalition over political stalemate and charges brought against a senior MDC member.

"The principals met. Sadly and tragically the stalemate continues," said Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Power sharing arrangements are always temporary, no matter how long they seem to last. Next comes the violence.

End of NightWatch for 26 October.