NightWatch

For the Night of 20 October 2009

Japan: Update. Authorities decided Japan is not in a position to continue the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean beyond January 2010, Kyodo reported. Speaking with visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Foreign Minister Okada said Japan is working on measures to support Afghanistan and Pakistan that will use Japan's areas of expertise. Gates said it is up to Japan to determine the kind of support it gives. Gates is scheduled to meet with Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama on 21 October.

Defense Secretary Gates asked Japan to implement a 2006 agreement on the relocation of a U.S. military airfield in Okinawa, Kyodo also reported. Gates pressed Japan to reach an early conclusion on the issue of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station. Okada said a conclusion could take some time, according to a Japanese Foreign Ministry official.

Taiwan-China: “Chinese aggression continues against Taiwan,” a report by the Taiwanese Defense Ministry said, adding that China has 1,500 missiles aimed at the island and has continued to hold exercises to prepare for invasion and to prevent another nation from coming to Taiwan's aid in the event of attack, The China Post reported today.

Chinese military exercises have increased since October 2008, when the United States announced the sale of an arms package to Taiwan, according to the report. The ministry added that China could use a formal peace accord to "soften (Taiwan's) will to defend itself."

Note: the significance of the missile number is that China could launch ten salvos of 150 missiles at Taiwan infrastructure targets. Salvos would pretty much destroy anything of value on Taiwan. The buildup of missile and other capabilities along China’s coast of the Taiwan Strait seems inconsistent with the general warming trend in cross-strait relations.

The Peoples Liberation Army has pursued single-mindedly a buildup of capabilities to attack and destroy Taiwan, irrespective of the current phase of cordial ties. This is the indicator that the Beijing government has pursued a classic two-track strategy of rewards and punishments. Very Chinese.

Beijing will never allow Taiwan to declare independence from China. It will attack Taiwan to prevent such a development. Moreover, the non-stop military buildup shows that Beijing will not tolerate autonomy for Taiwan except on Beijing’s terms.

Pakistan: The provincial governments on Tuesday, 21 October, ordered the closure of government and private educational institutions across the country following the attack on the International Islamic University in Islamabad (IIUI) in which six people, including three female students, were killed and 29 others injured.

The first blast targeted the cafeteria adjacent to a girls’ hostel around 2:10pm, while the second one targeted the Sharia and Law Department building.

The International Islamic University was established in the 1980s. Its campus, on the outskirts of the national capital, has more than 12,000 students, nearly half of them women. Many of the students come from abroad. Most take Islamic studies of some description

These bombings were the seventh major attack in just over a fortnight and the first since the military launched what officials vowed would be a knockout blow against the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan. "We are in a state of war. They will make every effort to destabilize the country. These so-called Islamists are enemies of Islam and enemies of Pakistan," Interior Minister Rehman Malik said at Islamabad's main hospital.

Comment: Malik has the right of it. Pakistan is in a state of war in that the Islamic militants have the capability to attack almost anywhere without warning. Pakistanis east of the Indus, except in parts of Karachi, are not yet attuned to the danger.

Operation Rah-e-Hijat in South Waziristan Update. The army killed 20 Taliban on the fourth day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in South Waziristan, the military said on Tuesday, as troops intensified the battle for control of Kotkai.

An exceptionally reputable and well informed McClatchy correspondent, a native Pakistani, provided a very different version of the fighting at Kotkai in South Waziristan. As reported in the Miami Herald. Saeed Shah reported,

Taliban guerrillas recaptured the birthplace of the Pakistani Taliban leader( Hakimullah Mehsud) from the Pakistan Army Tuesday, inflicting the heaviest military losses so far in Pakistan's high-stakes offensive in South Waziristan….Taliban militants attacked Pakistani forces and recaptured the strategic town of Kotkai, Reuters reported Oct. 20. Security officials said government forces captured Kotkai but militants struck back to retake it. An intelligence official said seven soldiers including a major and several Taliban were killed in the fighting. Another intelligence official said jets bombed Taliban positions in and around Kotkai after the militant counterattack.

This report suggests that one of the three prongs of the Pakistan Army offensive got sucked into an ambush. Shah’s report and the Army statement are the first credible and congruent reports of a serious engagement. The Army got bested today, reminiscent of Musharraf’s campaign in North Waziristan.

McClatchy’s Shah also reported that government attempts to enlist the aid of Mahsud tribesmen were rejected by the tribal elders. The Mahsuds understand this is a punitive campaign. In other words, the deeper the Pakistan Army units move into South Waziristan, the greater is their danger of massacre, but for over-watch by the Pakistan Air Force. This “all out campaign” is faltering after four days, probably because it is far from an all out campaign.

Pakistan-Iran: For the record. Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi said 20 October that Pakistan will cooperate with Iran on the investigation of the 18 October attack by the militant group Jundullah on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Sistan-Baluchistan Province, Iran, KUNA reported. Qureshi said an Iranian delegation will be visiting Islamabad soon to discuss the issue, and that Pakistan wishes to sustain its long-term relationship with Tehran.

The Pakistani assurances of cooperation are virtually identical to those the Pakistani government gave the Indians after the 26 November 2008 Mumbai attacks and are probably as trustworthy.

Afghanistan: A spokesman for President Hamid Karzai said he will accept the final ruling of electoral authorities, Agence France-Presse reported 20 October. Spokesman Waheed Omar said Karzai will wait for the final announcement by the Independent Election Commission (IEC), adding that Karzai is bound to accept the results based on the law.

The presidential runoff election between President Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah will be held 7 November, the BBC reported, citing electoral officials.

Karzai evidently is confident of victory. Soooo…. after the US obtains a legitimate leader in Kabul, how does that reduce the brutality and corruption of the police in Yahya Khel District in Paktika Province, or the necessity to use warlords in Konduz to stop the Taliban in Imam Sahib District?

One well informed commentator, Gilles Dorronsoro, raised a serious issue of cultural misunderstanding. Dorronsoro wrote,

There is a worrisome correlation between the amount of aid for civilian projects per capita and the strength of the insurgency. Helmand Province receives the highest amount per capita -- $250 a year, which is still not a lot, compared with the Balkans -- but it has the highest level of coalition casualties. The first Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan, based in Gardez, Paktia Province, has spent tens of millions dollars helping the local population, but the Taliban has captured the area and U.S. troops are basically unable to move outside their posts without huge security measures.

The point he makes is troubling because the soft power programs to win hearts and minds might actually backfire by reinforcing visceral and cultural Afghan suspicion of outsiders. The Taliban spin is that Western development projects always mean subjugation and seizure of local wealth by Christians. The Taliban version resonates, according to Dorronsoro.

If Dorronsoro is correct, a surge of civilian aid workers might be more misunderstood and have worse impact than a surge of soldiers. His article in the 20 Oct Los Angeles Times is worth a quick read as an alternative interpretation of how Afghans view Western “help.” It seems that 200 solutions are required for each of the 200 districts under stress. Tedious, but possibly effective. Clearly, one solution does not appear to fit more than one district.

Apologies for misspelling the name of the Tajik candidate last night….

Iran: Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers were delayed 20 October, Channel News Asia reported. The talks were scheduled to start at 0800 GMT and the delegations had not met by 1500 GMT; sideline discussions had occurred throughout the day.

The Associated Press reported the United States, Russia, France and Iran scheduled separate meetings, one of which was a meeting between the Iranian and U.S. delegation under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency. There are no details about the meeting.

Thus far the meetings have made no progress.

Security. The commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground force called for officials to give his troops the required orders to attack the Jundullah militant group in Pakistan, Fars News Agency reported. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour did not specify whether he was calling for Pakistani permission, Reuters reported. The Iranian Foreign Ministry urged Pakistan to arrest the rebels and hand them over or grant Iran permission to pursue them.

End of NightWatch for 20 October.