NightWatch

For the Night of 16 October 2009

India-Russia: Update. India will acquire its first Russian Akula II-class submarine in coming months, which India will lease for 10 years at $650 million, RIA Novosti reported 16 October, citing a highly ranked fleet official. The submarine, named INS Chakra by the Indian Navy, has gone through sea trials. Final tests will begin in late October or early November. An Indian crew will train with Russian specialists and servicemen in early 2010, according to the report.

In a matter of months, the Indian Navy will be back in the nuclear-powered submarine business. Between 1988 and 1991 India leased a Charlie 1-class nuclear powered submarine from the Soviet Union so as to gain experience in nuclear submarine operations. The Indians named that submarine Chakra as well. India eventually intends to build nuclear submarines in Indian yards.

Pakistan: Update. Eleven people were killed after a suicide attacker detonated a car bomb in Peshawar, The Associated Press reported today. The vehicle detonated in the vicinity of a mosque, an army checkpoint and a police station that the provincial Information Minister Mian Iftikhar told Dawn News was also used by the CIA. Previous reports indicated that a female suicide bomber on a motorbike had caused the blast at the police station.

In a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Gilani, the Chief of Army Staff, General Kayani, briefed military and political leaders on the national security situation and challenges facing the state, various media reported. "The political leadership assembled together noted that there already existed an across-the-board consensus in the country to root out extremism and militancy," a statement issued after the meeting said. All of Pakistan's political parties attended the meeting.

Comment: The Corps commanders of the Pakistan Army do not yet seem to share in the consensus about the threat to the country. If they did, the Army would commit resources to the defense of the nation that remain targeted against India.

A consensus of the political leaders is meaningless without the support of the Corps commanders. They apparently see no threat to the state, yet. When they are persuaded that their families are at risk from Islamic terrorists, Pakistan will start to take charge of its internal security problems.

Afghanistan: The U.N.-backed panel investigating fraud in Afghanistan's contested election has completed the bulk of its work, but commissioners are still analyzing complaints and calculating figures to determine if there will be a runoff, according to multiple international media reports. A spokesman for the Electoral Complaints Commission said investigators completed an audit of 3,377 polling stations that returned unlikely results showing 100 percent turnout or a single candidate receiving 95 percent of the vote. The panel continues to investigate individual fraud complaints and work on numbers and percentages.

U.S. Secretary of State Clinton said Afghan President Hamid Karzai will likely win the presidential election even if a runoff is called, according to Agence France-Presse. Karzai is very close to the 50-plus-one percent needed to avoid a runoff, she told CNN

Comment: Reports from sources on the ground in Kabul indicate the runoff is important to the foreigners more than it is to the Afghans. This will do little to win the struggle for legitimacy in the Pashtun districts, where the Taliban have the advantage. Plus, the US already knows the outcome or a recount.

Confusing. This all looks very Western, very expensive and marginally relevant to the struggle against the Taliban.

France: President Sarkozy said French troops will stay in Afghanistan but no more soldiers will be sent there, Le Figaro reported today. Sarkozy also said a larger number of Afghan soldiers will be the most effective factor in winning the conflict in Afghanistan. He added that Afghan soldiers should receive better wages in order to prevent them from deserting the military to join the Taliban.

Sarkozy’s recommendation to use pay to attract and retain recruits in a country as poor as Afghanistan would seem to be a no brainer. A bidding war over pay is one that NATO should never lose. If NATO cannot pay more than the drug lords and the Taliban, then something fundamental is wrong.

Guinea: For the record. Reuters reported today that France has recommended that its nationals leave Guinea because of a surge of violence. The French Foreign Ministry also said it strongly advises against traveling to Guinea because the security situation has deteriorated in the aftermath of the army repression of a popular demonstration held 28 September. The Ministry added that banditry, particularly armed robbery, is on the rise including reports of armed robbers following expatriates from the airport and attacking them at their homes

China: Too good to omit. Brilliant and well informed Readers sent in more links to pictures of aircraft carrier mock-ups in China. There are three. One is near Shanghai and is a 7/8 scale mock-up of a Nimitz-class carrier at an amusement park.

The second is a mockup of the flight deck and island of a full-scale Kuznetsov-class carrier with its signature ski-jump above the bow. It is at a naval shipyard at Wuhan on the Yangzi River. According to the experts, it is not clear that the mock-up is sturdy enough to support flight training, but it can serve as a test bed for electronics.

One web site labeled the mock-up at Wuhan a “cement aircraft carrier.” There apparently really is one, after all.

The third is the ex-Soviet carrier Vargyag at Dalian which is being refitted, according news reports. This is where 50 fighter pilots started training in carrier operations last November.

Thanks to the many Readers who contributed. The bottom line for non-navy specialists, China is in

the aircraft carrier business for real, though it does not have an operational aircraft carrier yet.

Special note: NightWatch received many feedback notes this week. Thanks to all who took the time to write.

End of NightWatch for 16 October.