NightWatch

For the Night of 9 October 2009

North Korea: Update. A senior North Korean envoy plans to visit the United States later this month for a trip that could pave the way for starting a dialogue between the two countries, Reuters reported today. According to South Korea's YTN television, a diplomatic source said North Korea is planning to send Director General Ri Gun, its number two negotiator to a seminar in the US.

Pakistan: Update. The Minister for Information in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) government said a bomb planted in a car parked in the Khyber Bazaar market area killed at least 10 people, Agence France-Presse reported. Police and army soldiers have cordoned off the entire area and investigations are underway to determine whether it was a suicide blast or the device was planted in the vehicle. Hospital sources reported higher casualties, stating that 30 people were killed and 100 others are hurt with 15 in critical in condition.

Despite earlier and repeated government statements, Khyber Agency is not secure.

Pakistan-UK: The UK is building a training camp for the Frontier Corps in Baluchistan in an effort to combat the Taliban presence near the border with Afghanistan, The Times reported, citing an official at the British High Commission in Islamabad. The UK also plans to deploy 24 army trainers at the camp for three years beginning August 2010, after the base is completed.

So…. the US trains the Frontier Corps in North West Frontier Agency and the UK does it in Baluchistan. Sounds great and it’s always good to get help, but the US and UK systems are separated by a common language and a shared foundation in common law. Why would the Pakistanis want two somewhat different systems training the same force?

Afghanistan: U.S. forces withdrew from an isolated base in eastern Afghanistan after a fierce insurgent attack that marked one of the deadliest battles of the war for U.S. troops, The Associated Press reported 9 October.

The NATO coalition said the withdrawal had been planned well before the 3 October battle as part of a wider strategy outlined by General McChrystal. A NATO statement said troops and equipment were moved to other locations in eastern Afghanistan after coalition forces destroyed the outpost.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said it is a victory for the Taliban with control of another district in eastern Afghanistan.

A basic rule of the Joint Staff is that if you are explainin’, you’re losin’.

Al Jazeera reported today a few details of a new US intelligence report that found the Taliban in Afghanistan have grown from about 7,000 fighters to over 25,000 fighters. This is the first strength figure for the Taliban reported by a government agency in the public domain.

Comment: In the NightWatch data base, more than 200 of the 400 districts in Afghanistan have Taliban fighting groups in them. The NightWatch rule of thumb for estimation is 100 fighters per district, usually not in a single force, but divided into smaller cells that might work together for some operations.

Some districts will have many more than 100, and some will have only a small cell. Thus NightWatch has estimated during 2009 that the number of fighters in the many anti-government fighting groups, including Taliban, totaled at least 20,000 fighters. Equally important as the total of regular fighters is the ability of the Taliban to merge fighting groups and enlist local tribal fighters for specific operations that can swell the numbers in an engagement to 1,000 or more. Thus, the addition of part time fighters could double or treble the numbers of anti-government fighters.

In the two recent successful counterinsurgency operations in Asia, that by India in Kashmir and by Sri Lanka against the Tamils, the force ratios ranged from 40 security forces for every Tamil fighter in Sri Lanka to 250 Indian security forces for every Kashmiri separatist. Neither relied on nation building programs.

Applying the Kashmir and Sri Lanka models to Afghanistan, the number of US reinforcements mentioned in the US press is about a tenth the minimum requirement to create a reasonable probability of suppressing the Pashtun insurrection. As for nation building, its effects will only become manifest if a predictably stable security situation can be created and after at least one generation dies. See Max Weber’s writings.

Ukraine-US-Russia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow's statement that Ukraine is being considered as a possible site for the deployment of early-warning radar systems was "unexpected," adding that Russia "would like to receive full clarification," Reuters reported.

Ukraine has no formal confirmation that the United States is considering the possibility of deploying missile-attack early-warning radar systems on its soil, acting Foreign Minister Volodymyr Khandogiy said today, Interfax reported. Khandogiy was responding to a reported statement by U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow that Ukraine was a potential site for the deployment of radar systems as part of the United States' new missile defense plan in Europe.

Some US government elements continue the effort to bring the Ukraine and Georgia into NATO and to defy Russian interests and activities in its near abroad. There are two considerations worth noting. The majority of the voters in the Ukraine at least do not favor NATO membership. Georgian popular sentiment is less clear. Secondly, NATO would be hard pressed to honor its defense treaty obligations to the Baltic states, not to mention the Ukraine and Georgia.

Overt challenges to the Russians risk an increase in subversion aimed at toppling pro-Western governments in the Ukraine and Georgia and replacing them with pro-Russian successors. This is a warning assessment.

Turkey: The government decided to cancel its participation in regular air force maneuvers with Israel, the United States, Italy and NATO, Kuwaiti news agency KUNA reported today. Turkey did not officially state the reason behind the decision to cancel participation in the drills planned for the last half of October.

The pro-Islamist Erdogan government does not want to be seen as a friend of Israel in this fashion. Past governments in Istanbul considered such exercises as confirming the secular foundation of the Turkish state.

End of NightWatch for 9 October.