NightWatch

For the Night of 7 October 2009

China-al Qaida: al Qaida leader Abu Yahya al Libi urged Uighurs in Xinjiang to prepare for a holy war against China and called on fellow Muslims to offer support, Reuters reported 7 October. In a video statement on an Islamist Web site, Libi warned China of a fate similar to that the Soviet Union.

He accused China of oppressing Muslims while looting their wealth and undermining their culture and religion. He stated that China has applied policies for the Uighurs' demise and destruction so that their numbers decline and the Islamic identity dissolves. Libi said all Muslims should be aware of the Uighur situation in China.

Note: It has taken nine years for senior al Qaida men to focus on the Uighurs. The Chinese have tried to engage Islamic states while keeping the Uighurs quiet, as part of a multi-tiered approach to avoid Islamic terror. The policy has not immunized them.

India-Pakistan: Pakistan’s Daily Times reported remarks by Indian Defence Minister AK Antony on Wednesday who said Pakistan was “not willing” to act against terrorists infiltrating into Indian Kashmir. …The main thing is, even after 26/11 ( the attacks in Mumbai last November) Pakistan is not willing to take strong action against these infiltrators,” Antony told reporters on the sidelines of the inauguration of the Defence Accounts Department headquarters building.

Alleging that all the terrorist camps were close to Pakistan Army bases, Antony said if Pakistanis were sincere they could control the terrorists. Meanwhile, the Indian Express quoted Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram as saying that reports that the Taliban were being pushed into Indian Kashmir to foment terror were baseless.

India’s top security authorities are maintaining the media pressure on their Pakistani counterparts so as to encourage them to reject support for terrorists as state policy. They are not succeeding, but the Indians keep the spotlight on the less noble dimensions of Pakistan’s national security policy.

One of the ironies of the fight against terrorists in South Asia is that the US must rely on Pakistan for support, arguably itself a state sponsor of international terrorists who target Afghanistan and India.

Pakistan: According to the report in the Daily Times, the Supreme Court Registrar office on Wednesday dispatched contempt of court notices to 60 judges of the Lahore, Peshawar and Sindh high courts, who had violated the Court’s order of November 3, 2007 banning them from taking an oath of office under Musharraf’s Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO).

A seven-member bench of the SC on November 3, 2007 had restrained judges from taking oath under the PCO, which was promulgated by former president Pervez Musharraf.

Hearing review petitions filed by PCO judges affected by the apex court’s 31 July verdict, a 14-member larger bench of the SC headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry on Monday had served contempt of court notices to these judges. The CJP had observed that these judges were constitutionally, legally and morally bound to follow the order passed on November 3, 2007.

Comment: The significance of today’s contempt notices is that the legal, judicial and political repercussions of Musharraf’s final days are not settled. Sixty judges face contempt of court charges, which can include jail time.

The Chief Justice remains a significant political force, albeit acting with restraint, keeping low visibility and walking with a light political footprint through the summer. Nevertheless, the notices are reminders that Pakistan has not returned to political normality, though it is politically stable.

Finally, it probably is no accident that the notices appeared only a few days after news reports that Musharraf plans a political comeback, probably in 2010.

Afghanistan: On 7 October, the eighth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban posted a statement on their website, shahamat.org, saying they pose no threat to the West.

According to Reuters, the statement reads: “We had and have no plan of harming countries of the world, including those in Europe … our goal is the independence of the country and the building of an Islamic state.” the statement went on to say that the Afghan Taliban were prepared for "a long war" if foreign troops "want to colonize the country of proud and pious Afghans under the baseless pretext of a war on terror."

Comment: The point worth noting is that the Taliban posting reinforces the statement on Sunday by US National Security Advisor Jones that there are fewer than 100 al Qaida in Afghanistan. Al Qaida is not welcome in Afghanistan by either side of the fight. The statement posted on the website is accurate, based on the past eight years. The Taliban resurgence is a home grown development that did not appeal to, rely on or seek Arab or al Qaida help, according to information in the public domain.

After their ouster from Kandahar in 2001, the Taliban openly derided the Arabs of al Qaida and blamed them for the Taliban’s misfortunes. They vowed never to allow the foreigners -- especially the haughty, insensitive Arabs -- back into Afghanistan, consistent with the history of Pashtun xenophobia. They have been true to that vow ever since, as General Jones confirmed, indirectly.

The premise that Afghanistan would become an al Qaida safe haven under any future government is alarmist and bespeaks a lack of understanding of the Pashtuns on this issue and a superficial knowledge of recent Afghan history.

In December 2001, Omar was ridiculed in public by his own commanders for inviting the “Arabs” and other foreigners, which led to their flight to Pakistan. The worst atrocities committed by the vice and virtue cops of the Taliban government were committed by the foreign thugs who accompanied bin Laden, according to media reports at the time. The Afghans did not behave that way against their own people, though they were brutish against the Soviets.

There is no factual basis for presuming that support for international Islamic terror is the norm in Afghanistan, rather than a tragic mistake. More than a thousand years of history reinforces the ethnic trait of visceral hatred of outsiders of all kind. Omar’s experience with the bin Laden and the Arabs revalidates the ancient wisdom.

See Neustadt and May’s Thinking in Time, Chapter 3, for a discussion of the appropriate uses of reasoning by historic analogy.

Bin Laden and his acolytes were/are exporters of a toxic world view that took root in Germany deeper than in Afghanistan. The Taliban were focused on subjugating recalcitrant Uzbeks and Tajiks of the Northern Alliance, not on exporting terror. No Afghans attacked the World Trade Center.

Even today, Omar and his merry men do not push – as they easily could -- the age old idea of a greater Pashtunistan that would join Pakistani Pashtuns with Afghan Pashtuns and would split modern day Pakistan north to south along the Indus River. The point is the security situation could be much, much worse and has been in the past, if the Quetta Shura were as brutish as some claim.

There are no good guys, but any successful strategy in Afghanistan will include the Pashtuns in some kind of power sharing arrangement. No matter who governs in Kabul in the future, bin Laden and al Qaida will not find a safe haven in Afghanistan again because almost all Afghans continue to agree on that point after eight years.

For the record, the leading exporters of violent revolutionary doctrines today are the remnants of al Qaida in Pakistan and Iran via the Revolutionary Guards Quds force and its Hizballah proxies. Pakistan is just a regional supporter of terror against its neighbors, but so is India from time to time.

Syria-Saudi Arabia: Syrian TV and SANA reported Saudi King Abdallah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz Al Sa'ud, custodian of the two holy mosques, started a visit this afternoon to the Syrian Arab Republic upon an invitation from President Bashar al-Asad, who received him at Damascus International Airport.

The top agenda item is Syrian meddling in Lebanon. The King is continuing his diplomatic offensive to wean al Asad from Iran.

Russia: For the record. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said 7 October+ that the new U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans pose no risks for Russia, RIA Novosti reported. Lavrov added that the new plan offers good conditions for bilateral dialogue and the two countries will soon discuss missile defense.

The US administration deserves some credit for reducing tension in eastern Europe, if only a bit. It is difficult to negotiate nuclear arms reductions with the Russians when Iranian missiles are in the way.

Somalia: Update. Somalia's two main rebel groups, al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, have agreed to a truce, ending days of clashes between the groups, Reuters reported. A senior al Shabaab official said that representatives from the two groups met on the outskirts of Mogadishu and agreed to a cease-fire deal that asserted future disputes must be resolved through dialogue and put before a Shariah court. The official said the groups also agreed to continue attacks on Somali government forces and African Union peacekeepers, and a Hizbul Islam commander confirmed the details of the truce.

The STRATFOR conclusion is that the alliance won’t last -- an easy call because no alliances last among the Somali clans. That is the way of clans. On the other hand, it only has to last long enough to boot the African Union forces and the Transitional Federal Government out of Mogadishu. That is the place to watch next.

Somalia Anti-piracy patrol: Too good to omit. French General Staff Spokesman Christophe Prazuck said: "During the night, a French naval vessel, the La Somme, which was sailing about 500 km off the coast of Somalia, was attacked by pirates, who took it for a harmless commercial vessel.  La Somme gave chase and intercepted one of the pirates' boats. 

All the weapons had apparently been thrown overboard and the suspected pirates are now being held on board La Somme….Once they realized they were facing a ship that was responding and heading toward them, they stopped shooting and attempted to flee," he added.

Seems like this anecdote contains a useful lesson.

End of NightWatch for 7 October.