NightWatch

For the Night of 6 October 2009

North Korea: Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) published on 5 October an account of one of the meetings between Kim Chong-il and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. In the item, North Korean leader Kim indicated the North is ready for bilateral talks and multilateral talks conditioned on the success of the bilateral talks with the US.

The Xinhua version of the same meeting purported to quote Kim expressing readiness for bilateral talks and multilateral talks, including Six Party Talks, depending on the success of bilateral talks with the US.

The North Korean version does not mention Six Party Talks, contrary to the Agence France-Presse treatment. The Chinese version explicitly mentions them, but does not state Kim agreed to return to multilateral talks unconditionally.

The international media in Russia, France, Japan and South Korea have praised Premier Wen for bringing the North back to the Six Party Talks. It is not clear that Wen achieved so much. The US almost immediately stated it is prepared to hold direct talks with the North under the conditions agreed by Kim and Wen.

That is the first step in determining how much or little Wen accomplished towards denuclearization of North Korea. Restoration of amicable relations between the two communist states, however, was a genuine and tangible achievement.

Correction: Kim Chong-il and Premier Kim Yong-il both met Premier Wen when he arrived in Pyongyang on the 4^th.

India-Jammu and Kashmir State: Central authorities are withdrawing six companies – about 900 men -- of the paramilitary Border Security Force (BSF) from Poonch and Rajouri Districts of Indian Kashmir, Zee News reported 6 October, citing an unnamed police officer. Some troops have already left Rajouri and all will be out of Rajouri by the middle of October, the police officer said. After the BSF troops have withdrawn, security in the area will be handled by police, the officer added.

In the past two years, India has been slowly reducing the numbers and the visibility of its enormous security presence in the state so as to encourage the revival of tourism and local business. Older hands who have studied the Kashmir insurgency readily recognize that the drawdown of Army and paramilitary forces in parts of Jammu and Kashmir State is an important benchmark of Indian counter-insurgency success.

The decision to withdraw BSF companies from districts on the Pakistan border is a significant sign that normal security conditions are returning even to the districts under most stress in the recent past. The reports did not state where the BSF companies will relocate, but Readers may be confident that the local police will have lots of reinforcements if they are needed.

For new analysts, the key fact is the transfer of responsibility to the police by the paramilitary police. In any insurgency, the most important indicator that the forces of order have gained control is the transfer of security responsibilities to ordinary policemen. This means the government judges the insurgency in these districts has been reduced to an ordinary law and order problem.

In the analysis of instability, Insurgency escalates towards revolution, in other words, change of the political system itself, which is the ultimate threat in Afghanistan. Insurgency de-escalates towards violent crime manageable by the constabulary, as in much of Jammu and Kashmir State and most of Sri Lanka.

Pakistan-US: After a meeting with Secretary of State Clinton today, Foreign Minister Qureshi asked the United States to make a long-term commitment to Pakistan, Afghanistan and the region, Reuters reported. Qureshi said "the people of the region have to be reassured that the United States has a long-term vision not just for Afghanistan and Pakistan but the entire region." He alluded to the U.S. decision to abandon Afghanistan after the Soviets pulled out in 1989 and asked Washington to learn from "the mistakes of the past."

Qureshi’s statement manifests the nearly universal Pakistani judgment that the US has been an inconstant and unreliable meddler in South Asia affairs. The point worth noting is that Pakistani leaders make no comparable demand on China or Russia. The plea for a long term strategy of involvement is a plea for options that enable Pakistan to avoid dependency on any one outside power, including the US.

Afghanistan: Afghan troops routed Taliban insurgents from Kamdesh District in eastern Nuristan Province, Xinhua reported Oct. 6, citing a statement from the Afghan Defense Ministry. Afghan forces, assisted by NATO airpower, killed several insurgents. Three foreign fighters were killed but the statement did not disclose their nationality.

This report is almost certainly incomplete and only partly accurate. For example, it did not mention government casualties, though Pakistani coverage of the fighting indicated there were some.

The NightWatch data base through July indicates Kamdesh District was an expansion area for anti-government fighters. Through the summer, Taliban overran the district center several times, routing Afghan police until NATO reinforcements recaptured the center. Nuristan is the province in which the 8 US and several Afghan soldiers were killed on Saturday.

To its credit, the government wants to make a showing that it is responding to the threat there. Assumption of security responsibility in high threat areas is an important benchmark that Afghan forces are progressing in capabilities. This incident does not make that case, but it points in the right direction.

Poland-US: A delegation that just returned from Washington received assurances from U.S. authorities that a Patriot missile battery will be deployed in Poland, Polish radio station RMF FM reported Oct. 6. This is the consolation prize for the US termination of the missile defense shield initiative in support of which the Warsaw government invested significant political capital. It saves face for the government in that they came away with something.

Somalia: Hizbul Islam leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Awey called on al Shabaab insurgents to agree to a cease-fire between the two militant groups following days of clashes near the port of Kismayu, Reuters reported. Awey said that "Muslim blood is being shed" in the clashes and that the fighting between the groups was only helping Somalia's government and African Union peacekeepers.

The first party to invoke the prohibition against killing fellow Muslims is invariably the loser. Nevertheless, they at least sometimes invoke their prohibition against killing.

Honduras: The government lifted the emergency rule restrictions on civil liberties. A member of the US House of Representatives met President Micheletti and referred to him as the legal President of Honduras, according to Fox News.

Reports of progress in talks and political concessions are contradictory and incomplete. Citizen Zelaya remains in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa.

End of NightWatch for 6 October.