NightWatch

For the Night of 29 September 2009

Japan-South Korea: Japanese Foreign Minister Okada and his South Korean counterpart Yu Myung Hwan agreed today ''carefully'' to assess whether future moves by Pyongyang would lead to a resolution of the North Korean nuclear standoff and affirmed their cooperation on the issue, Okada said.

During a joint press conference after their talks in Tokyo, they also said a proposed visit by Japanese Emperor Akihito to South Korea has ''not been discussed in detail'' by the two countries, with Okada saying Japan will ''carefully'' study the matter by considering ''various situations.'' Earlier this month, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak expressed hope that the emperor will visit South Korea next year to ''put an end to the sense of distance'' between the two countries as 2010 will mark a century since the beginning of Japan's colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula that ended in 1945.

President Lee’s invitation to the Emperor is a bit odd, but the significance of today’s meeting is the South Koreans are getting to know the new Japanese government. First impressions are positive from both sides.

North Korea: The exile-run web site The Daily NK has posted two articles explaining why the leadership succession movement in North Korea has been suspended. Kim Chong-eun , the third and youngest son of Kim Chong-il supposedly was on the fast track to leadership, but not now. All authority delegated to him has been revoked, according to the exiles.

The Daily NK provided several explanations for the suspension, all of which involve serious overreaching or errors of judgment by the third son that angered his father. Without reaching a conclusion about the explanations, the news service reports that the one clear point is that the movement to familiarize the population with the younger Kim has stalled: no new billboards, no new songs, no new mandatory study meetings about the “exploits” of the kid who has spent most of his life in Switzerland. Heck, the kid knows less about North Korea than some NW readers.

NW can attest that the direction of foreign policy is much more consistent with Kim Chong-il’s policies and style … much more stable than last December when Kim Chong-il was clearly ill and not managing the affairs of state. Oddly, that is tonight’s good news.

North Korea-China: Korean Central News Agency reported that at the invitation of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea and the DPRK Government, Wen Jiabao, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, will pay an official friendly visit to the DPRK from 4 to 6 October. During his visit, Wen Jiabao will hold talks and meet with DPRK leaders to exchange views on developing China-DPRK relations and on issues of common concern.

Wen Jiabao will also attend relevant activities to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the DPRK and the China-DPRK Friendship Year.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Jiang Yu said on 29 September that during State Council Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to the DPRK (North Korea), China and the DPRK will sign documents on cooperation in trade, economy, education and tourism.

Jiang Yu said at a regular news conference that Wen Jiabao's visit this time is an important part of the activities to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the DPRK and the China-DPRK Friendship Year and is also a return visit to DPRK Premier Kim Yong Il, who visited China in March this year.

Sixtieth anniversaries are auspicious events for Koreans. In honoring the Korean sensibilities, The Chinese are trying to rebuild their influence in Pyongyang. China’s refusal to veto UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea for the May nuclear test resulted in a serious deterioration in relations with the North and a breach of trust that the Chinese are now hoping and trying to repair.

China-Iran: Today China called for restraint in handling Iran. "We hope relevant countries can do more things that are conducive to relaxing the situation and positively resolving it rather than to the contrary," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told reporters. Jiang was asked for an official response to Iran's actions but did not make clear whether she was referring only to Tehran or to a possible international response.

This is the first official Chinese statement about the predicament of its Iran proxy.

Philippines: Two US Navy CB’s were killed in the southern Philippines today in the deadliest attack against American troops since they began helping local forces stamp out Muslim extremists in 2001, officials said. The landmine blast that killed the two CB’s also killed Philippine Marine, Philippine military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Romeo Brawner said in Manila.

The explosion struck the troops as they were riding a Humvee vehicle on the outskirts of a town on Jolo Island, where the Muslim militant Abu Sayyaf Group is active, according to Brawner. Two weeks ago, a small bomb was hurled at a wharf on Jolo where US troops were unloading supplies. No one was injured.

Use of improvised explosive devices is an acquired capability, not indigenous to Abu Sayyaf, evident from their infrequent use of the weapons and their prior lack of success. Skill in making and using IEDs by Abu Sayyaf represents learning about technology imported from the Middle East.

The last time a US soldier was killed in southern Philippines was in October 2002, when one soldier was killed and another seriously wounded by a bomb, believed to have been planted by Abu Sayyaf, that exploded in a bar in the southern port city of Zamboanga, on the tip of Mindanao Island.

Assuming bomb-making supplies are available, effective use of IEDs can transform Abu Sayyaf from a lawless group of thugs and smugglers into a more serious security problem. The risk for the several hundred US counter terror advisors and soldiers in the Philippines has increased. The Navy CBs are non-combatants, neither advisors or fighters; just easy targets.

Indonesia: Police released today a series of files from slain terror leader Noordin Mohammed Top's laptop showing detailed and chillingly nonchalant planning prior to the July bombings in Jakarta.

Videos on the laptop seized in the Central Java raid this month that killed Noordin, 41, show suicide bombers and other militants discussing and making preparations for the 17 July twin suicide bombings, which killed seven people.

In one video, the two bombers, Dani Dwi Permana, 18, and Nana Ikhwan Maulana, 28, are seen doing stretching exercises near an empty lot in front of the targeted JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels. In another video, the bombers and hotel florist Ibrohim -- who police say helped stage the attack from the inside -- snack on biscuits and apples on the grass in front of the hotels.

A fourth militant still on the run from police, Syaifudin Jaelani, says off camera: "America, destroyed; Australia, destroyed; Indonesia, destroyed." In yet another clip, teenage bomber Dani is seen in front of the hotels saying: "This is not suicide, this is a good deed."

"We see how they are preparing themselves, how they have filmed their plans and their surveys of targets through their own eyes," police spokesman Nanan Soekarna told reporters.

What Soekarna did not say is that “nihilism” appears to be a distinctly un-Islamic motivation for some suicide bombers. That sentiment seldom shows up in captured videos. The distorted logic that suicide is a good thing, on the other hand, is common and often reportedly follows administration of drugs, according to press reports from Afghanistan.

Burma: Yesterday, the United States said it will directly engage Burma’s military regime but will continue maintaining existing sanctions and also consult regional countries, including China and India, in seeking change in Burma.

Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told reporters on Monday that the US intends to start direct dialogue with the Burmese authorities to pave the way towards better relations. “We recognized that, ultimately, we need to change our methods but not our goals. And I think at this early stage, it’s important to suggest that we are prepared to sit down, but also recognize that nothing has changed yet on the ground or in terms of some of the activities that Burma has been involved with,” Campbell said.

The dialogue, Campbell said, will include specific discussion of democracy and human rights inside Burma, cooperation on international security issues including nonproliferation and compliance with 1874 and 1718 of the UNSC resolution, and areas that could be of mutual benefit such as counter narcotics and recovery of World War II era remains.

The US will continue to push Burma for the immediate and unconditional release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners, an end to conflicts with ethnic minorities and gross human rights violations, and initiation of a credible political dialogue with the opposition and ethnic minority leaders on the process of reconciliation and reform, he added.

Comment: Hmm… this is catch-up by the State Department to the opening to Burma by Senator Webb who obtained the release of a deranged American who tried to rescue Aung San Suu Kyi. What the US press reports did not tell Readers is the Burmese initiated the official contacts. Thus the US press did not question what the Burmese are after.

One hypothesis is that they are looking to the US as a third force that will enable them to triangulate between India and China. In any event, the Burmese would far prefer to talk to Webb than Campbell.

Pakistan: For the record. Asked by reporters and editors at The Washington Times whether the U.S. and its allies might be seen as weak because of the prolonged debate over whether to send more forces to Afghanistan, former president Musharraf said, "Yes, absolutely. ... By this vacillation and lack of commitment to a victory and talking too much about casualties [it] shows weakness in the resolve."

It is more than a bit of cheek for Musharraf to criticize the commitment of the US. During his tenure as Chief of the Army Staff AND President, the Pakistan Army sued for peace rather than continue a costly campaign against the Waziris. Musharraf’s duplicity and failures of leadership directly contributed to the revival of the Afghanistan Taliban from safe havens in Pakistan that he condoned as chief of government.

Musharraf is making a world lap to build his international credentials for running for office in the next few years. He still thinks of himself as Pakistan’s savior and hopes to finish the job of liberating Pakistan from the likes of President Zardari Prime Minister Gilani and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif if he ever returns to office. That is what he suggested to Pakistani news services during the summer.

Comment on the 29 September Washington Post item on Quetta. An article today significantly distorted what the US knows about Baluchistan in Pakistan, about the Quetta Shura and the competence of US intelligence services in general. The Post article made itself a platform for spreading the outright lies by Pakistani spokesman Major General Abbas, without so much as a question.

For years, NW consistently has highlighted the Quetta Shura as a controlling hub for the Pashtun insurrection in Afghanistan. NW has questioned the policy that ignored the Afghan Taliban in favor of targeting al Qaida Arabs in Pakistan’s tribal agencies.

Today, the blame for neglecting the Quetta Shura is placed on intelligence officials apparently asleep at the switch, instead of the senior officials who have directed the search for bin Laden at the direction of the highest officials in the US government.

The US Counter Terror mavens deliberately ignored the Afghan Taliban for at least seven years after 9/11, regardless of the implications of such a focus on US soldiers in combat in Afghanistan. The Taliban got a pass from the US and the Pakistan and is still enjoying it. The drone operators were only following orders. Now the establishment has discovered Quetta.

Nearly every body who follows Afghanistan knows Mullah Omar went back to Momma-in-law’s family near Quetta after he fled for his life from Kandahar in November 2001 … in tears. No one of importance in the US seemed to care. The search was directed against bin Laden and Zawahiri and has always been directed against them, even when UAV attacks risked destabilizing a pro-US government in Islamabad.

For the US Ambassador to Pakistan to lend the weight of her office to assertions that the US knows nothing about Baluchistan shows how poorly informed she is. For example, she is obviously unfamiliar with Tom Johnson’s excellent article on the border areas. Tom is a professor at Naval Postgraduate School and an expert. He has written extensively on the areas that Ambassador Patterson suggests are terra incognita to US agencies.

The Post item attempts to blame intelligence, operators and information services for the near-sightedness and ignorance of policy makers. The intelligence agencies have done their job but the policy leadership has been deaf and uninterested in Afghanistan for 8 years, except on the margins.

The Post also shows the ignorance of its reporters. The Afghan Taliban never made a secret that they were based in Quetta, Baluchistan Province, Pakistan. Asia Times Online has carried dozens of articles on the Quetta Shura. All of Afghan Taliban internet postings originate from Quetta.

In March the US President called Afghanistan a war of necessity, but evidently it has taken until September for some US policy makers to discover that Taliban leader Omar and his advisors are based near Quetta!! To describe this as slow learning would be a kindness. The Post item is embarrassing, when it is not wrong.

Afghanistan-UN: A senior UN official in Afghanistan has been removed from his post following a row about how to handle the country's disputed election, the BBC has learned. Peter Galbraith angered Afghan President Karzai by criticizing the country's election commission. Galbraith, an American, apparently called for a complete election recount.

Last week the top UN Afghan envoy, Kai Eide, said Galbraith left the country after a row between them, but he denied he had ordered him to go. UN sources say Secretary General Ban Ki-moon decided to end Galbraith's mission after it became clear he was no longer able to carry out his work in Afghanistan, says the BBC. Some Afghan cabinet ministers had said they no longer wanted to work with him.

The NW assessment is the US has distorted the issues of legitimacy of a government beyond anything reasonable in and relevant to the history of Afghanistan today. Were the US to declare Karzai is our man, the election and the waste of money involved in a recount would disappear as hot topics. As they should.

The civil war is far more pressing than elections. When the enemy controls half the country, diplomatic nattering about legitimacy of an election and “good governance” seems comparable to counting deck chairs on the Titanic. The wonder is that the election took place at all, not that it was flawed or corrupt.

Bullets have more legitimacy than ballots just now. Fixing corruption seems trivial when Taliban or Pashtun gangs are overrunning more than half the district centers, corrupt or not.

Iraq-Iran: Parliament Speaker Iyad al-Samarrai emphasized today “Iran's constructive role” for establishing security in the region, and called for greater security cooperation between Iran and Iraq, Fars News Agency reported. Al-Samarrai made his remarks during a meeting with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili.

It is not clear that Iraqi Speaker al Samarrai said what the Iranian news service said, but if so it is the kind of statement that makes all the Sunni Arabs quake. One might hope that the report is in error. Only someone asleep for several decades or an agent of influence for Iran would describe Iran as a force for security.

Iran-Switzerland: Update. Iran notified the Swiss government that it will be allowed access to three U.S. tourists detained for illegal entry into Iran in July, according to unnamed U.S. officials, The Associated Press reported 29 September. Swiss officials will be allowed to meet with the tourists to verify their condition.

Guinea: President Army Captain Camara broadcast a statement today that "our country, following unauthorized political demonstrations, has just lost some of its innocent sons and daughters," while some were wounded. "Public and private buildings were vandalized by the thugs and unruly elements," President Camara says, regretting that the events occurred on 28 September, a historic date for Guinea.

Camara says "on behalf of the National Council for Democracy and Democracy (sic), the government and people of Guinea, I bow piously before the memory of these innocent victims of these regrettable acts." He says the government pledges to assist the bereaved families and will do everything to shed light on these dramatic events."

Camara says "Wednesday 30 September and Thursday 1 October 2009 have been declared days of national mourning." He urges all Guineans to put aside any partisan position, in a patriotic spirit of mutual tolerance.

He says any grouping of subversive nature "is banned until further notice. President Camara urged religious bodies, opinion leaders, political party leaders, organizations of the civil society, the media, to refrain from statements and actions capable of disturbing public order." 

At least 157 people were killed when Guinean troops opened fire on opposition protesters on Monday, a human rights group said. Police confirmed 87 people died, but local activists say hospital sources confirmed a much higher toll.

.

Junta head Capt Camara denied knowledge of sexual assaults, as claimed by some human rights groups, but he admitted that some of his security forces had lost control.

Comment: The issue that incited rioting and the barbaric crackdown is that Camara duped the people. He claimed he would not run for president in any election in 2009 but announced presidential elections for 31 January 2010, in which he apparently indicated his intention to run for the presidency.

A callow, superficial, narcissistic churl is in charge in Conakry, Guinea, and the Guinean voters know it. That is what led to today’s killings. The demonstrators did not have guns to shoot back at the thugs in uniform. This is a study in democracy, as an Army Captain in Guinea understands it.

Seems like remedial classes in what it means to serve in a democracy are in order for all military officers in Francophone Africa, for starters.

France-Guinea: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said France was suspending military ties with Guinea after the "savage and bloody" crackdown on opposition protesters, the French news agency AFP reported.

Honduras: President Micheletti issued an ultimatum Monday, giving Mexico and three other countries 10 days to recognize his de facto rule and asked to have his diplomatic privileges returned. The ultimatum was given to Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina, and Spain. Micheletti is threatening to withdraw all flags and national symbols from those countries' embassies in Honduras.

The Organization of American States and the European Union have decided to send diplomats back to Honduras after having abandoned Honduras during the coup. Diplomatic representatives are planning to return to the country in the coming days. However, the de facto Honduran authorities announced Monday that they will not receive the ambassadors of those nations.

"The Honduran government will not receive diplomats from countries that unilaterally decided to break their diplomatic relations with Honduras during the coup or to maintain them at the level of concurrent embassies," said a Spanish diplomatic source.

Comment: Micheletti and the Honduran citizenry are tiring of this phony crisis, fraught with outside meddling and exhortations to civil disobedience by a criminal given refuge in the Brazilian Embassy. Zelaya proves every day that he has no respect for law, the stability of Honduras or civilized behavior, even abusing the hospitality of his Brazilian hosts.

The US would not tolerate some demagogue calling for the overthrow of the US government from an embassy located in the District of Columbia, but apparently State expects Honduras to do what the US would not. Another study in democracy.

End of NightWatch for 29 September.