NightWatch

For the Night of 24 September 2009

North Korea: The Korean Central News Agency broadcast today the successes of the 150-day struggle/battle plan. They were “epoch-making,” and the plan “was carried out 112% nationwide (sic).” Industrial production was up over the same period last year 1.2%. People are said to be brimming with enthusiasm for the new 100-day battle. Right.

Hmm… it is not clear what the North Koreans mean by 112%, “industrial production” and 1.2% increase, but the math looks odd. Apparently some increase in production of something did take place, but probably fell short of making an epoch … or even a good bulgogi sandwich. North Korea makes world-class ginseng whiskey, but the beef is lousy.

Thailand: Update. The Bangkok Post reported, “His Majesty the King is continuing to regain his strength and is eating more meals, the Royal Household Bureau says. The committee of royal physicians yesterday reported His Majesty had no signs of fever in the past 24 hours, the bureau said.”

”The King could eat more meals and was undergoing physical therapy to regain his strength. Blood tests revealed no growth of bacteria. The King was admitted to Siriraj Hospital on Saturday with a fever, fatigue and loss of appetite.”

The only significance is that the King’s health is more important than political reform in Thailand.

India-UN: The Security Council’s enthusiasm for the US nuclear non-proliferation resolution was not shared by India. An official statement stated that India will continue to do what is in India’s national security interests, which does not at this time include becoming a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Poland-Afghanistan: Poland has hired two advisers to help determine whether Polish troops should remain in Afghanistan or be withdrawn, Defense Minister Bogdan Klich said, Polskie Radio reported today. Klich added he believes the end of 2009 would be a good time for Poland to talk with NATO and the European Union and reanalyze the mission in Afghanistan. He announced Poland will craft its own strategy for Afghanistan.

Iran: question? Whatever happened to the three back packers captured by Iran?

Iran: China vs France at the UN. China demurred from the US lead in dealing with Iran by stating its position that it will not support sanctions. French President Sarkozy has had an epiphany of sorts. He said it is time to get tough with Iran. The Russians were on the sidelines, vaguely interested in new sanctions.

Of all the permanent members of the Security Council (China, US, UK, France, Russia) Russia can least afford to tolerate a nuclear armed Iran which acts as a Chinese proxy when the Chinese require.

Iran is a tricky problem for Russia because the alternative to exercising influence on the government is to occupy parts of Iran. Those options constituted the Soviet repertoire for handling Persia after 1918, in a slight oversimplification. Russia must maintain influence in Tehran, as a geo-strategic hard point, if it cannot defeat Iran. A nuclear armed, belligerent Iran is a strategic threat to Russia every much as it is to Israel. And that gives leverage to the US.

Russian leaders cite Russian intelligence assessments to support their position that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. They are gambling with Russian national security, if they believe the assessments, because the data is not as absolute as the Russian public position.

On the other hand, the Russians compete with China for influence in Tehran and must appear in public to support the ayatollahs so as to help maintain access. The Russian intelligence services, like those of the US, cannot afford to make a mistake about Iranian nuclear weapons capabilities, delivery systems and intentions.

The Chinese could care less. Readers will recall Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan disclosed that the Chinese gave him the design for a nuclear weapon and he helped Iran, though he did not state he gave Iran the plans that originated in China. Nor did he deny it.

The Chinese concern about nuclear weapons proliferation only focuses on their own borders, namely North Korea, which happens to be another recipient of assistance from A.Q. Khan.

Once the science gets loose, it is impossible to recapture it. For example, if Iran demonstrates it has a nuclear weapon, it seems inevitable that states hostile to Iran and Shii Islam will conclude they have no choice but to develop their own weapons programs.

Syria-Saudi Arabia-Lebanon: Syrian President Bashar al Assad, during an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia, joined King Abdallah and other Arab leaders at the 23 September opening ceremony of the King Abdallah University of Science and Technology, Ynet reported today. Al Assad reportedly met with Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Sinyora on the sidelines of the ceremony, according to Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar.

The significance of this item is that the three of the most important people involved in building a government coalition in Beirut happened to show up together to help open a university. Attempts to arrange a government in Beirut that might stabilize Israel’s northern neighbor are stalemated. The King apparently called in some vouchers to try to build a stronger position to block any further expansion of Iran’s influence via Hezbollah.

Somalia anti-pirate patrol: Somali pirates boarded a Panama-flagged ship that was en route to Mogadishu on 24 September and killed its Syrian captain after he refused to steer the vessel away from the port, Reuters reported, citing port authorities.

"Usually, we send police when commercial ships draw near the port but the pirates were already on board and opened fire injuring one policeman," Abdiasis Hassan, minister for ports, said. African Union troops and Somali police rescued the ship, according to officials.

Killing a potential hostage is infrequent because of the loss of potential ransom money.

Meanwhile, Switzerland declined to send forces to support European Union anti-piracy OPERATION ATALANTA on the grounds that it would compromise Swiss neutrality. Nonsense, the Swiss prefer not to disclose their naval capabilities.

Most Readers will not know that Switzerland has a Navy, not just for patrolling Lake Lucerne. It controls a substantial number of commercial cargo ships that operate from Italian ports. All Swiss men and many women are members of the armed forces up to age 55 when they become members of the civil defense forces. This requirement includes bankers resident in New York and merchant ship crew members, who must return to Switzerland for combat training every year. The Swiss are among the best in the world at keeping secrets and intelligence work.

Honduras: Update. An unidentified official from interim government engaged in informal talks with citizen Zelaya to end the current political crisis. Zelaya said he had met an unnamed official, for what he called "the beginning to find peaceful solutions.

The government clarified that the informal talks did not include any discussion about restoring Zelaya to office.

End of NightWatch for 24 September.