NightWatch

For the Night of 23 September 2009

Japan: Prime Minister Hatoyama told President Obama at the UN that he would look for ways to support Afghanistan on 23 September, Agence France-Presse reported. Japan "will seriously consider what we can do for the sake of Afghanistan as well as Japan and the United States" as a possible alternative to the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, Hatoyama said.

Hatoyama told reporters after the summit that the relationship between Washington and Tokyo would be a "key pillar" of his foreign policy. Termination of the refueling mission was a critical issue in the Democratic Party’s political struggle against the Liberal Democratic Party government.

The refueling mission was a pawn in an epoch-making political struggle in Tokyo. Now that the Democratic Party has won that struggle, the refueling mission must end because it was a Liberal Democratic Party program. Nevertheless, the Democratic Party coalition government professes that full partnership in the US-Japan defense alliance remains a cornerstone of its administration.

For domestic political reasons, the refueling mission will end. For international reasons, the new government will find different ways to assist the US and its coalition partners. The good news is that that new government is not an inward looking, political black hole. It wants and intends to help but on somewhat more mature terms.

South Korea-North Korea: South Korea launched two high-speed patrol boats armed with missiles to guard the border with North Korea, Agence France-Presse reported 23 September. The national defense ministry said the new 400-ton boats were commissioned in the southern port city of Jinhae. The boats are equipped with guided missiles with a range of up to 140 kilometers (84 miles).

For the record, North Korea’s navy has no ships comparable to these missile boats which are just sea border patrol boats. The South Korean Navy is a world class force for its size and it promises to get bigger and more powerful in the next ten years.

North Korea’s navy is old junk -- a tribute to the naval engineers who manage to keep 30 year-old or older engines making revolutions and turning screws, occasionally.

India: Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal P. V. Naik said today that the government is doing much to boost the air force's capability because the strength of the air force is "inadequate," Indian Express reported. Naik said he is unaware of any air incursions from China across the Indian border. He added that India has one-third the number of aircraft that China has, which is why the Indian air force must be strengthened.

Sometime between 2006 and 2007, Indian authorities decided that it was politically correct to identify China as the long term enemy of India. Since 2007, if not earlier, the number of op-ed pieces and statements by retired officials about the threat from China began to equal the reassuring statements by the Foreign Ministry that China poses no threat to India. Of course the official statements have always been nonsense for public consumption.

In the past two years, military officers and a few authoritative civilian officials have been in the forefront of indoctrinating the Indian reading and listening public that China is the future enemy. Today’s statement by Air Chief Marshal Naik cites China as the justification for a stronger Indian Air Force, justifiably so.

Indian memories of the Chinese invasion of India in 1962 are long. Indian strategic thinkers and the whole world are well aware of the revelations of Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan that prove Pakistan would have no nuclear weapons without Chinese assistance.

If any country can block Chinese economic and military imperialism, it must be India, hopefully with US support and partnership. The two great democracies of the world need to keep their strategic vision clear and coordinated. Pakistan is in thrall to China and cannot escape it.

India-Pakistan-Jammu and Kashmir State: Four Indian soldiers and four Muslim militants died in Kashmir gun battles 23 September. The Army Chief of Staff, General Deepak Kapoor, blamed Pakistan for violating a six year-old ceasefire by attempting to help Kashmir militants infiltrate the Line of Control before the winter sets in and prevents infiltration, Reuters reported. Four soldiers were wounded. "Fierce encounters are still going on. We are sure these militants have recently infiltrated from PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir)," an Indian Army spokesman said.

Clashes resulting from thwarted infiltration attempts from Pakistan are normal at this season. What is noteworthy is that the election of civilian government in Islamabad has made no difference in the seasonal surge along the Line of Control.

Under President General Musharraf, militant and terrorist infiltration into Indian Kashmir never stopped. The Zardari-Gilani government promised to be different, but is showing that it has no control of Pakistan’s security agencies, its intelligence agencies and its Army. Civilian government in Islamabad is a sham as long as the Army and intelligence service can defy the direct orders of the elected government, assuming such orders were actually issued and not just promised.

The continuing seasonal infiltration along the Line of Control into Indian Kashmir proves that Pakistan does not operate under rule of law, except where and when the Army approves. It is not a modern government. Plus, whoever really rules Pakistan continues to use terror as an instrument of state power against India and against the US in Afghanistan.

The NW working hypothesis is that those who actually make executive decisions about national security in Pakistan have had enough of US pressure tactics. They have no intention of mounting an anti-terror campaign using ground forces in Waziristan or doing anything more than has already been done to comply with or support US requirements for fighting terrorists. In this, they are acting in the interests of Pakistan, China’s proxy in the struggle with India for dominance in Asia.

Afghanistan: U.S. Central Command chief General David Petraeus said 23 September that he and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen endorsed General Stanley McChrystal's "assessment and description" that more troops are needed in Afghanistan, Reuters reported.

In the same report, Petraeus commented that the level of violence in Afghanistan needed to be kept in perspective in that it was less than the level of violence in Iraq at its worst.

Comment: Mirror imaging is one of the five mortal sins of intelligence analysis and Petraeus committed it. There are no similarities between the Iraq fight and the Pashtun and other tribal insurrection in Afghanistan. For Petraeus to utter such words betrays a lack of insight comparable to that which pervades the McChrystal assessment.

Alexander the Great defeated the Arab ancestors and occupied Baghdad, but failed to defeat the Pashtuns. Can someone please get a clue that these security problems are not alike?

The implications of 700 anti-government attacks on election day in Afghanistan are far different from 700 attacks in Iraq on any day, even now.

Saudi Arabia: King Abdallah is scheduled set to inaugurate the new co-educational King Abdallah University of Science and Technology near the village of Thuwal, Reuters reported. The university's 36-square-mile campus has thus far attracted 800 students from abroad and 70 professors.

The King is trying to bring the Kingdom into the 20^th century, but he shall not live long enough to make it so.

Even if his successors succeed, the Kingdom still will be more than a century behind the rest of the developed world. And that is a core problem for the rest of the world. A co-educational university – what a world-shaking idea! 100 or more years ago.

Honduras: Update. President Roberto Micheletti told the BBC and other news services today that he is willing to talk to citizen Manuel Zelaya, who is barricaded in the Brazilian Embassy. However, President Micheletti said Zelaya must first accept the validity of presidential elections set to be held in November and be willing to submit to arrest for crimes against the state.

Zelaya, who was sent into exile in June, called the offer "manipulation".

Troops continue to surround the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, where Zelaya and a small number of supporters have taken refuge. Electricity, water and telephone services were cut off for a time on Tuesday before being partially restored. A government spokesman said the interruption of services affected the whole neighborhood.

Brazil warned Honduran security forces not to enter the embassy and is seeking an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to address the crisis. President Micheletti said there are no plans to use force. He has urged Brazilian officials to either grant Mr Zelaya political asylum or hand him over to Honduran authorities.

A NightWatch public service report: Too good to omit.

“According to the Los Angeles Times, manure becomes volatile as it decomposes. Gases, including methane and hydrogen sulfide, are naturally produced as the animal waste breaks down.

As weather becomes hotter, methane becomes highly combustible, which can cause the manure to spontaneously explode and sometimes catch fire. Since methane is lighter than air, it builds up on top of unvented areas, such as in closed pits. It is recommended that all areas with manure be ventilated to prevent explosions.

Figures showing how many brush fires have been caused by manure explosions are not available, said a Ventura County Fire Department spokesman. "We have had that occur in the past, but I don't believe it happens very often," he said.”

Hmm… so…. Forest fires are not the fault of arsonists, but of animals that defecate?

End of NightWatch for 23 September.