NightWatch

For the Night of 13 September 2009

North Korea-South Korea: For the record. South Korea refused to comment on reports that North Korea may be preparing a third nuclear test, Agence France-Presse reported. Both South Korea's Unification Ministry and National Intelligence Service refused to comment on reports from Open Radio of North Korea, a South Korean rights group, citing an unnamed North Korean official as saying North Korean leader Kim Chong-il had ordered a new nuclear test prepared. Open Radio also said the new test is likely to use uranium instead of plutonium as used on the previous tests, and that it is likely to take place between 20 September and 10 October.

No news service or other commentary claims the North has enough enriched uranium plus the technological capability to make a nuclear weapon that uses enriched uranium. That allegation is dismissible.

On the other hand, another plutonium blast is feasible and would punctuate the North’s policy of engaging in bilateral talks with the US, sort of as a reminder or incentive for holding talks, as the North’s leaders understand what motivates the US.

It is worth noting that the rumors of another test surfaced after the US stipulated that it would agree to engage in bilateral talks with the purpose of restoring the Six Party Talks, which the North Korean government has declared at an end. Assuming the US position does not change, the North may be trusted to blow another nuke.

Pakistan: The leader of the Pakistani Taliban in the Swat Valley has been surrounded and will be captured by Pakistani security forces, Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on 13 September, The Khaleej Times reported. Malik said in a meeting with Pashtun tribal leaders that with Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah surrounded, the core of the Taliban insurgency has been destroyed.

Other Pakistani news services reported Fazlullah agreed to surrender rather than be captured or killed. The significance of this is difficult to relate to the larger issue of the stability of North West Frontier Provinc3e. Pakistani authorities have declared an end to the fighting or victory over the Pak Taliban so often that no official statements should be credited until the authorities produce results.

In other words, how many times will Swat District have to be conquered after this latest “break through?” And what is going on in Waziristan and the other tribal agencies that are not being reported. Looks like the Swat Islamist resistance has made the Pakistan Army decide it has no stomach for counterinsurgency operations.

Politics. Saudi Arabian King Abdallah assured former President General Musharraf that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, headed by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, will not seek to try him for treason. In his typical fashion of kicking a dog, Musharraf boasted that he wants to try the Superior courts of Pakistan for treason!

Somehow the open intrusion of a Saudi King into Pakistani domestic politics of an Islamic Republic seems to have generated little commentary, not to mention outrage.

Afghanistan: This weekend the top US/NATO commander confirmed to the press that al Qaida has no significant presence in Afghanistan. General McChrystal’s words were less literate, but in his convoluted military style he said there are no major indications of an al Qaida presence. The truth and more accurate statement is there are no indications of a major al Qaida or any al Qaida presence in Afghanistan.

This flatly contradicts the public statements by the US President justifying the US forces presences in Afghanistan, which is to fight or deter al Qaida. Astute readers will ask, if US and NATO forces are not fighting al Qaida, who are they fighting and where is al Qaida?

They are fighting Pashtun Taliban who hate outsiders and want self-determination for their country, a fine Wilsonian democratic principle, arguably. Al Qaida is in western Pakistan, not Afghanistan, which might suggest US forces are fighting in the wrong country or that the President has been misinformed by his advisors about which country already has become an al Qaida base.

If they are fighting to suppress or deter al Qaida, shouldn’t NATO forces be in Pakistan? Whatever, that is where al Qaida is. Mind, Pakistani operations do not target either al Qaida or the Afghan Taliban, only the Pakistani Taliban.

NW admits to a bias in assessing that Pakistani intelligence knows where bin Laden and/or Zawahiri are hiding and could silence them at any time, but deliberately chooses not to do so and then dissembles about it.

Iran: Gunmen killed a top Iranian Sunni cleric with close ties to President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, IRNA reported 13 September. The cleric, Borhan Ali, was killed outside his home on the 11^th in Sanandaj, Kurdistan province. Ali was Ahmadi-Nejad's campaign manager in Kurdistan province.

The reason this death in the Islamic world is of passing interest is that since the Iranian presidential elections Iran has become a much more dangerous country, including politically motivated killings, abuse of press freedom, abuse of civil rights, suppression of the right to gather peaceably, suppression of political opposition, tortured confessions, arbitrary arrests without any pretense of legality, intimidation, destruction of private property in retaliation for political opposition, most under color of official action.

The repression of the opposition has been extreme even by Chicago standards and has set in motion retaliation and reprisal killings, as paybacks. In undermining the elections, the clerics in charge have made Iran much less stable than at any time in the past ten years.

Israel-Lebanon: Prime Minister Netanyahu blamed the Beirut “non-government” for three rocket attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Beirut has no functioning government because Saad al Hariri has been unable to form a cabinet acceptable to the factions. Israel apparently has decided to increase political pressure so that it has someone to talk to and someone to blame for failing to police southern Lebanon. Supposedly, UNIFIL – a UN force—is responsible for maintaining the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, but its mantra or mission seems to be “run away” from the sound of gunfire.

Uganda: For the record. At least 640 people were arrested and 14 have been killed in clashes between government forces and members of the traditional Buganda kingdom in Kampala, Uganda, CNN reported 13 September. 13. Riots occurred in Kampala for three days, and police said the number of individuals arrested may increase as investigations continue. Trials for those arrested on charges of taking part in unlawful assemblies and violent activities will begin 14 September.

Tribalism is alive and well in Uganda, despite some pretenses of a modern political system.

End of NightWatch for 13 September.