NightWatch

For the Night of 10 September 2009

North Korea: Update. In an interview Thursday with a Japanese news agency, North Korea's second highest government official, Kim Yong Nam, denied foreign media reports that Kim Chong-il has selected his third son to be his successor. Kim said not such development has taken place.

Similarly, the Daily NK, a Seoul-based Web newspaper that often quotes unnamed midlevel officials in the North, reported that "authorities have commanded the people to stop all propaganda" about Kim Jong Un.

The Web site quotes what it said was a 28 July from the Workers' Party central committee: "Stop sending out propaganda regarding ‘Captain” Kim [Jong Un] in lecture meetings or on Channel 3 [a television station in Pyongyang], and refrain from using the expression, 'Young General of Mt. Paektu.' "

The primary significance of this is that the leadership situation in the North has stabilized. The policy initiatives of the past two months have been much more characteristic of Kim Chong-il than were the belligerent initiatives during the first six months of the year. An edgy, uncertain leadership in North Korea is a danger to northeast Asia and the Pacific Rim.

Leadership stabilization is not a harbinger of peace and tranquility, but it restores predictability to North Korean political behavior, assuming Kim Chong-il is in charge, as today’s reports suggest. What really is taking place remains opaque, but for now the leadership behavior looks more familiar. That is good news.

North Korea- US: The US is ready to engage directly with North Korea in an effort to bring the nuclear- armed regime back to multinational talks on disarmament, the top State Department spokesman said in an interview yesterday. “There’s a consensus that we’re prepared to engage North Korea bilaterally as a means to accomplish what our long-term objectives are: to encourage North Korea to come back to the six-party process” and take “affirmative steps toward denuclearization.”

North Korean diplomats will only hear the part about bilateral talks and conclude they obtained what they have been seeking all along, namely, bilateral talks with the US. The handful of American handlers will all get bonuses.

A return to the Six Party Talks, as such, will not occur, but the North might be willing to return to a multilateral talks format under a new name. That depends, however, on the bilateral talks with the US.

India: Update. Today, authorities allowed the detained United Arab Emirates' air force C-130 transport aircraft to depart from Calcutta's Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport, Indian Express reported. The aircraft is bound for China's international airport in Xian, which serves the aerospace industry. The Indians have not disclosed the nature of the cargo, which could include US missiles provided to the UAE..

Pakistan: President Zardari today rejected the US strategy of linking policy on Pakistan and Afghanistan in an effort to end a Taliban insurgency and bring stability to the region, according to the Daily Times. US President Obama earlier this year appointed senior diplomat Richard Holbrooke a special representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan in a move aimed at addressing the two states as a single arena of conflict.

“Afghanistan and Pakistan are distinctly different countries, and cannot be lumped together for any reason,” said Zardari in an interview with the Financial Times on the anniversary of his first year in office. Zardari’s comments reflect Pakistan’s unwillingness to be aligned in a joint policy framework with neighboring Afghanistan – an approach referred to as ‘Af-Pak’.

Zardari’s remarks are aimed at showing his constituents that he is not a US stooge. However, they also are accurate, based on demographic and economic livelihood data. One strategy does not fit all, though the conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan have linkages.

Afghanistan-International Criminal Court: The BBC reported today the chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) said he is gathering information about possible war crimes in Afghanistan. Luis Moreno-Ocampo says that he will be examining claims relating to both NATO soldiers and Taliban insurgents.

He said the court had received allegations from many sources, relating to attacks and collateral damage.

But the court will only become involved if the Afghan government or the UN Security Council asks it to look into allegations. Afghanistan is a signatory to the treaty that established the Hague-based ICC. Any war crime committed on its territory by either Afghan nationals or foreign forces can be investigated by the court

Moreno-Ocampo said non-governmental organizations (NGOs) active in the country had supplied him with information and evidence. He said he has requested information from human rights groups and groups inside Afghanistan as well as the Afghan government - and would be "very open" to information from foreign governments.

Moreno-Ocampo declined to provide details on what incidents the ICC was looking into and said there was no certainty that the court would charge anyone.

Comment: In addition to the dangers of combat, NATO commanders and soldiers could risk criminal liability before the ICC for decisions that miscarry in a war zone. This is a powerful disincentive to initiative and innovation. It is nearly impossible to wage war without risking criminal liability for commanders and soldiers in a signatory to the ICC.

One brilliant and perceptive NW Reader noted that the women and children were the ammunition supply system for the Taliban forces in the Konar Province ambush. That is a characteristic of “war amongst the people,” as described by General Rupert Smith, and as the US experienced in the Vietnam War. It does not signify coercion; it is one of several indicators that an insurgency has evolved into a popular uprising.

The significance for the fight in Afghanistan is that there is no way to fight the Pashtuns without killing women and children, when they are the ammunition providers.

This is not a Taliban innovation. Throughout Asia for more than a thousand years, civilian panniers always have constituted the logistic system for military forces. Even in the Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979, the number of Chinese civilian panniers in Kunming military region -- men and women who carried supplies in pans on their heads – more than doubled the numbers of Chinese combat forces. The Asians are not bound by Western sensibilities.

There is no way to avoid war crimes allegations, though it is too early to conclude that warrants will follow. The ICC might not resonate in the US, but it is a big deal in Europe, aka NATO countries. NATO commanders will gamble with their freedom in approving operations, should Moreno-Ocampo determine that an investigation of war crimes is justified. Mind, it is in his and the Court’s professional interest to make that finding. Most of the NGOs would support him.

This is a foreseeable and logical outcome of relying on NATO forces for military operations outside Europe. The ICC acts as an intimidating and deliberate check on those interests who seek to enlarge NATO’s mission and area of military operations. Everybody who ever read the history of the Court should know that.

Afghanistan-UK: Hostage negotiators expressed shock and anger at UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s decision to approve a commando raid to free a kidnapped British journalist, saying that they were within days of securing his release through peaceful means.

Stephen Farrell — who was in Afghanistan for The New York Times — was not harmed in the raid but his Afghan translator, Sultan Munadi, and a British soldier from the Special Forces Support Group were killed.

The men were being held at a house in Kharudi in northern Afghanistan. Just after midnight on Tuesday U.S. helicopters dropped British special forces and Afghan troops in the village. Taliban militants fled the house and a fierce battle ensued. At least one civilian and scores of militants were killed.

The significance of this event is that it makes the NATO command look in disarray, disjointed and whipsawed by national political authorities. European lives appear more valuable than Afghan lives, according to South Asian media coverage.

Lebanon: Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri today announced that he will step down because he has been unable to form a unity government, Reuters reported. Al-Hariri said he hoped his decision to step down "will be for the benefit of Lebanon.” "Given that my commitment to forming a government of national unity has run up against difficulties that everyone now knows about, I announce that I have informed the president of the republic that I have abandoned trying to form a government," Hariri said in Beirut, according to Agence France-Presse.

Hariri has spent more than 10 weeks trying to get the majority and minority factions to agree on a cabinet line-up. This week, he proposed a cabinet list unilaterally and was bitterly denounced by the Hezbollah-led opposition. His Western- and Saudi-backed alliance emerged as the largest party, but needed support of other parties to form an effective government

President Michel Suleiman must now consult with parliamentary parties before nominating a new PM-designate. Suleiman might appoint Hariri as interim prime minister, but the impasse primarily advances the interests of Hezbollah, the Syrians and the Iranians.

Russia-Venezuela: President Medvedev said during a meeting with Venezuelan President Chavez in Moscow that his country is ready to provide Venezuela with tanks and other military supplies, RIA Novosti reported today. Medvedev said in a press conference that military cooperation is an important part of relations between the two countries.

Chavez said that Venezuela must increase its defense capabilities and that a "blockade" is closing in on the country. A Russian defense official had earlier told RIA Novosti that a contract worth $500 million for up to 100 Russian T-72 and T-90 tanks would be signed during Chavez's visit.

The difference between Cuba and Venezuela is that Venezuela can pay for Russia military aid. Russia is doing business that deliberately provokes the US and Chavez has made annoying the US a mantra.

During the trip to Moscow, Chavez announced that Venezuela recognizes the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Interfax reported.

End of NightWatch for 10 September.