NightWatch

For the Night of 9 September 2009

North Korea: Update. North Korea may test a nuclear weapon in late September or early October, Bloomberg reported today, citing Open Radio for North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il reportedly said that the country will conduct a nuclear test if the United Nations or the United States increases sanctions against North Korea.

Yesterday the US imposed froze the accounts of two North Korean state-run companies because of their involvement in the nuclear program and proliferation. The freezes would seem to be sufficient to trigger a detonation decision. More later.

North Korea- South Korea: Update. Authorities in Seoul have concluded that North Korea deliberately released a flood from the Imjin River dam into South Korea. The North admitted it released water to reduce risk of a dam collapse because of dangerous, rising waters. The South Koreans rejected this explanation and conveyed that they expected an apology for the death of South Korean campers killed by the surge.

The NW hypothesis is the North will convey an apology, as it has done in past incidents. Stay tuned.

Pakistan: A.Q. Khan, whom the US considers the world's most ambitious and successful proliferator of nuclear weapons technology, told a television interviewer in Karachi, Pakistan, that if Iran succeeds in "acquiring nuclear technology, we will be a strong bloc in the region to counter international pressure. Iran's nuclear capability will neutralize Israeli power." In the interview on 31 August Khan admitted assisting Iran with its nuclear weapons program.

Although Khan has previously claimed nationalist and religious justifications for helping to spread nuclear weapons technology, several experts said his latest statement was an unusually direct claim of broad, official Pakistani support for an Iranian nuclear weapon.

The Pakistani government has repeatedly asserted that Khan acted alone in illicitly spreading nuclear weapons technology, and it has denied that there was official support for helping either Iran's nuclear program or North Korea.

Khan, who has spent the past several years under house arrest, has insisted privately that his contacts with both countries were approved by top military officials. He is now speaking openly about his exploits.

A spokesman at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, Nadeem Kiani, emphasized that Khan has no "official status" and that Pakistan "does not want proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region."

"These are the views of a person who has been rendered ineffective, and his network has been completely shut up," Kiani said. …. In fact, no credible reports indicate Khan’s network is shut down or that he is ineffective.

He insists on exposing the depth of Pakistani official perfidy about nuclear weapons proliferation during the last elected civilian governments, when Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were prime ministers, and during the early years of the Musharraf regime. He has promised to divulge more details of his activities at a later time. Khan is a proud man who feels betrayed by the government that enabled and facilitated his proliferation of nuclear weapons, primarily to enemies of the US. That means he has a lot to say.

Security. Pakistan does not pay reparations for civilians killed in villages that harbor anti-government fighters. Army and government officials decline to credit accusations of innocent deaths from tainted sources, including village elders looking for a big government handout.

Most often, the authorities order the Army engineers to raze the village that harbors anti-government fighters. The Army and government do not believe in a kinder, gentler war. In Pakistan, bulldozers are agents of peace. The Paks know how to fight in the tribal areas and could teach others valuable lessons because Pakistani tactics seem to work.

Afghanistan: Jonathan Landay of McClatchy News today filed a dispatch about a deadly ambush in Konar Province in northeastern Afghanistan in which the Marine unit in which he is embedded suffered four killed. According to Landay, the operation was compromised. The Taliban were waiting and the US forces walked into a trap. The senior US officer on site said the US lost the fight.

Landay’s account is striking. Air support was requested but delayed for an hour. Artillery support was not provided to protect the Marines and Afghan soldiers because of the new policy of avoiding civilian casualties. And, it goes without saying, Taliban intelligence was better than Allied intelligence. The Taliban kept firing nearly 9 hours. The duration of the firefight signifies new capabilities of endurance by the anti-government forces.

Comment: Landay’s experience reinforces the NW contention that without air support, US ground operations are unsustainable. As a result of Landay’s excellent dispatch plus earlier reports of a number of US defeats at the hands of the Taliban, mostly in Konar Province, it is no longer accurate to assert that the US wins every battle. The ability of the Taliban to leverage their information operations to support their combat operations, as described by Landay, is a breakthrough in insurgent tactical success.

The ability of the Taliban to win successive battles in Konar Province against the best armed, supported and networked forces in the world is nothing short of astonishing! The Marines got beat, not because the Taliban were better on the battle field, but because they had better intelligence, i.e., were smarter. That ought to be a wake up call to someone.

No insurgent or nation respects a country because it has a great counter-insurgency capability. Great power status rests on air power and, in appropriate situations, naval power. Consider, the Taliban are so afraid of US ground forces that they persist in fighting them with turbans, AKs, RPGs, sandals and flowing robes. No body armor, no armored vehicles.

The NW hypothesis is that the security of US forces is not sustainable without air support. Landay’s article proves that proposition. Protecting the Afghan populace … from NATO forces … has become the responsibility of the Taliban in the south and northeast. If Landay’s account is typical, the US apparently has no coherent strategy that translates into effective tactics, and that puts US soldiers’ lives at increased risk.

Iran: If intelligence information on the matter is authentic, there is a "high probability" that Iran has worked on nuclear weapons, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohamed El Baradei said 9 September, DPA reported. Speaking at an IAEA board meeting in Vienna, El Baradei said, "I am not a scientist, but I can tell you this: If this information is real, there is a high probability that nuclear weaponization activities have taken place. But I should underline 'if' three times." El Baradei has asked Iran for clarification on the issue.

Apparently el Baradei has not read or paid attention to the revelations by A.Q. Khan. Iran has nuclear weapons technology, thanks to Khan, according to Khan. There is not much room for doubt. High probability? Asked for clarification? Khan’s testimony makes the IAEA look tepid, as usual, and lagging.

Yemen: The army recaptured positions in the northern province of Saada from Shiite rebels, carrying out deadly air strikes as the military offensive entered its fifth week, Agence France-Presse reported today.

In the past two days the Yemeni army “purged” the Jabal al-Ahmar area south of Saada City where militants downed communication towers, a military official told state news agency Saba. While there was no immediate report on the latest fighting from the rebel side, Information Minister Hassan al-Lawzi said more than 100 Zaidi Shiite rebels had been arrested and were being interrogated. The Yemenis did not pay reparations for destroying rebel villages.

The Iranian connection. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said he suspects that Iranians and Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr are helping to fund Shiite rebels in northern Yemen, Al Jazeera reported. Saleh said he cannot accuse any official parties in Iran or al-Sadr but they have expressed their willingness to mediate between the Yemeni government and the rebels, "which means they are communicating with them [the rebels]." He also said two "cells" in the Yemeni security forces that have received up to $100,000 from Iran will be prosecuted.

Saleh is no fool. His accusations expose an Iranian plot to control both banks of the Bab el Mandeb which links the southern end of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Other Iranian allies in this area include Sudan, Eritrea and the al Shabaab fighters in Somalia. This is the southwestern part of Iran’s “breakout” strategy, which links to its ties with Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Russia: For the record. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made an unannounced trip to Russia on 7 September to discuss Russian arms deals to Iran and Syria and to present evidence that those weapons were being used by Hezbollah fighters, Haaretz reported 9 September, citing an unnamed Israeli official. The trip reportedly was kept secret, though Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Defense Minister Ehud Barak had been briefed. Military Affairs Secretary General Meir Kalifi and National Security Adviser Uzi Arad accompanied Netanyahu on his trip to Moscow.

Russian Prime Minister Putin did not meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during Netanyahu's alleged 7 September visit to Russia, a Putin spokesman said today, as Haaretz reported. Putin's spokesman, Dimitri Peskov, said the Russian prime minister was "busy that day" with other previously scheduled events. Peskov did not make any statement as to whether or not Netanyahu had visited Russia.

The introduction of Russian S-300 air defense systems into Iran could change the conventional strategic balance of power in the Middle East in favor of Iran... the system is that capable against missiles and aircraft, according to multiple open source assessments.

Sudan: Update. A female journalist, jailed for a month after being convicted of "dressing indecently" by wearing trousers, has been freed after one day. Lubna Ahmed Hussein was sent to prison after refusing to pay a fine of about $200 (£122), saying she did not want to "give the verdict any legitimacy".

Mohedinne Titawi, of the Sudanese Union of Journalists, said the union had paid the fine to secure her release.

Ms. Hussein had faced a penalty of up to 40 lashes. International rights groups criticized the trial from the start, with the UN on Tuesday saying the charges against her breached international law.

At the risk of repetition, NW judges that women’s rights issues threaten to change Islam faster and more insidiously than any other form of challenge. The curious, somewhat unexpected development is the apparent sensitivity of the Khartoum regime to international scrutiny of this issue, compared to its impervious disregard of international outrage over its Darfur policy. Women’s rights is an explosive issue.

Venezuela- Russia: The leaders of the two states intend to sign 10 agreements when Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez visits Moscow, Xinhua reported, citing a statement from Russian President Medvedev's foreign policy aide Sergei Prikhodko.

Prikhodko said the agreements include a deal regarding intellectual property rights in military cooperation, an agreement between the countries' defense ministries on military exchanges and personnel training and a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in developing the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela. No new arms deals are to be signed during Chavez's two-day visit, but Russia might give Venezuela a loan for Russian weaponry.

Chavez will make deals with any state that opposes the US, promises to assist Venezuela in standing up to the US and provides practical assistance that supports Chavez’ outdated ideas about how to resist a US attack, regardless of whether the deals actually help Venezuela.

End of NightWatch for 9 September.