NightWatch

For the Night of 7 September 2009

South Korea-North Korea: A new crisis appears to be emerging as the result of flood conditions in South Korea that were created by a large water release from a dam in North Korea. The depth of the Imjin River which flows from the North, across the Demilitarized Zone and into South Korea doubled over the weekend for no apparent reason. There was no rain. The increased flow killed six campers in South Korea. South Korea has demanded an explanation from the North.

Then reservoir created by the dam on the Imjin River in North Korea is intended to create hydro-electric power and to support agriculture in the North Korean provinces just north of the DMZ. The North’s decrepit power transmission system is so decrepit that the power is sold to South Korea. The electricity is too steady and the voltage to high for the North Korean power line transmission system which would melt under a modern load.

Ever since the North began building the dam on the Imjin, military thinkers in the US and South Korea have fretted that the dam could be used to support military operations by releasing a flood that would kill lots of South Koreans and somehow make overland movement during an offensive by North Korean armor forces easy. No one ever squared that circle, but worry about the water threat never stopped, just lowered its visibility, thankfully.

That is the background to the South’s complaint. Regardless of the dubious military value of the dam, the ability of North Korea to create a crisis by releasing water is not a trivial concern, especially in peacetime without warning.

Taiwan: For the record. Premier Liu Chao-shiuan resigned 7 September and said that members of his Cabinet also would resign soon, Reuters reported. Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou named Wu Den-yih as Liu's replacement as premier. Liu's resignation follows public criticism over his government's handling of preparations for and disaster relief operations after Typhoon Morakot. Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan on 8 and 9 August, leaving 670 people dead.

China: Authorities in Xinjiang province have sent 1,500 officials and police to Urumqi in western China to resolve conflicts in Uighur communities, RIA Novosti reported 6 September. Regional Communist Party Secretary Wang Lequan said the move is aimed at explaining government policies to the residents of the restive region and that 600 senior officials will be sent to meet with communities in Urumqi's north populated by ethnic Han Chinese.

Authorities in Beijing fired two local government leaders in Urumqi over the weekend because they mishandled another round of riots. The dismissals calmed the Uighurs somewhat, but the government is taking extraordinary measures to prevent more riots.

Afghanistan: A Swedish aid worker claims that soldiers from the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division raided a hospital in Afghanistan's Wardak Province on 2 September and violated local customs by searching the hospital's women's ward and by tying up hospital guards, CNN reported. The soldiers reportedly said they were looking for suspected Taliban fighters in the hospital. \

Another version of Swede’s story is that the American troops stormed through the hospital, broke down doors and tied up hospital staff. The U.S. military command said it was investigating.

There are a few things wrong with this story. First is that no young lieutenant leading a search party would defy the orders of General McChrystal to avoid abusing civilians, if he valued his career, especially so soon after the Konduz bombing in response to a German request.

More importantly, the Swedes have a visceral hatred for all things American military. Swedish aid organizations proved this repeatedly in the Vietnam War and in the search for US POWs after it. Swedish NGOs are not credible sources in NW’s first hand experience.

However, the effectiveness of Taliban propaganda, abetted by some Swedes and other anti-American aid organizations in Afghanistan, raises the larger question why the US and the Coalition command’s publicity is so pathetic and invariably inept. The Taliban are winning the contest to shape public attitudes in Afghanistan. That is remarkable at every level.

As for battlefield propaganda, the US might profitably do what the Israelis did after their forays in Gaza in January. First is fire those who pretend to be “information operations” officer. They have disqualified themselves repeatedly, as Admiral Mullen has remarked on multiple occasions.

Secondly, do what the Israelis did: let the situation speak for itself. The Israeli counter attack against Hamas propaganda about non-existent Israeli atrocities was to post combat film footage of operations on Youtube. The postings included footage of Hamas fighters shooting from hospitals windows and rooftops, for example. After a while, the phony claims of innocent deaths stopped because Hamas was shown to be the perpetrator, just as Taliban is.

It is ironic that US airpower and now ground force operations could be neutralized by words and film --Taliban claims and postings of supposedly innocent deaths unsubstantiated by physical evidence. It is a rigged game because the Quran forbids exhumation ... of the dead dogs, goats and sheep that village elders claim as innocent civilian deaths and demand payment.

US commanders ought be less gullible and go on a publicity offensive of their own. If US troops are committing atrocities then the threat of Youtube exposure and direct evidence for criminal prosecution should inhibit that behavior. If they are not, the story should be self-proving and simple.

Special thanks to a brilliant reader for background on the Israeli Youtube operation.

Sudan: Too good to omit. A former UN worker from Sudan has been jailed for a month after refusing to pay a fine for "dressing indecently" by wearing trousers, her lawyers say. Lubna Ahmed Hussein did not want to "give the verdict any legitimacy" by paying the fine of about $200 (£122), her lawyer, Nabil Adib, told the BBC.

Ms Hussein, a journalist in her 30s, could have been given up to 40 lashes. Before the verdict, she had said she wanted her trial to become a test case for women's rights, correspondents say. Ms Hussein had resigned from her job at the UN, which would have given her immunity.

"She thinks she was unfairly tried and convicted and was not given a proper chance to put her defence case," Mr Adib said. He said Ms Hussein would appeal to both the Court of Appeal and the Constitutional Court.

Kamal Omar, another of Ms Hussein's lawyers, told the AFP news agency his client had been taken to the women's prison in Omdurman.

Ms Hussein was arrested in July together with 12 other women who were wearing trousers. Several of the women pleaded guilty and were given 10 lashes immediately, Ms Hussein said at the time. She said several of those punished were from the mainly Christian and animist south, even though non-Muslims are not supposed to be subject to Islamic law.

During the trial, Ms Hussein argued that she had done nothing wrong under Sudan's indecency law.

If Islam finally modernizes, it will be the result of women asserting their rights against a male dominated society.

Russia: Update. Israeli and Russian sources told the Sunday Times that the M/V Arctic Sea was not carrying timber, as the official public story stated, but was actually bound for Iran with equipment for one of the most advanced air defense systems.

Arctic Sea disappeared en route from Finland to Algeria on 24 July, according to the cover story. It was recovered off west Africa on 17 August when eight alleged hijackers were arrested. The Kremlin consistently has denied that the vessel was carrying a secret cargo. It claims the ship was hijacked by criminals who demanded a £1m ransom.\

The official version was challenged by sources in Tel Aviv and Moscow who claimed the ship had been loaded with S-300 missiles, Russia’s most advanced anti-aircraft weapon, while undergoing repairs in the Russian port of Kaliningrad. Haaretz reported that the Israelis notified the Russians about the ship and that action prompted the intense Russian naval search.

The story of pirates seizing a ship carrying a cargo of timber to hold it for ransom had no credibility. The latest story, if accurate, is ominous because it means western and Russian non-proliferation watches and intelligence services are inferior to those of Israel in their capability to prevent shipments. They are also inferior in their ability to detect ships at sea with contraband. However, neither detected the loading of the ship with S-300 parts. Catching such a ship after it leaves port is just luck, not brains.

Two other issues are worth noting. The Russians denied they are selling the S-300 to Iran, but the Arctic Sea tends to expose them as lying. Moreover, the episode also exposes the lack of government safeguards against smuggling sensitive strategic equipment and systems. That raises more questions about safeguarding nuclear weapons. If they cannot safeguard a hot high-end system that is in the news weekly, how prudent is it to trust them to safeguard nuclear weapons which everyone would sooner forget.

Brazil-France: For the record. Brazil signed an agreement with France to buy 36 Dassault Rafale fighter jets. In return, France will purchase 12 Brazilian-made KC-390 military transport planes, CNN reported today, citing a statement by the countries' governments. The statement was published at the conclusion of talks between Brazilian President Lula and French President Sarkozy in Brasilia.

Brazil’s military buildup continues, slowly, but steadily.

Venezuela-Iran: The two countries signed an agreement on gasoline supply late Sunday during a visit by President Chavez, who pledged to deepen ties with Iran and stand together against what he called the imperialist powers of the world.

“On the basis of a strategic decision,” it was agreed to export 20,000 barrels a day of gasoline from Venezuela to Iran," state TV quoted Chavez as saying at the end of his visit. The fuel shipments will begin in October.

One of Iran's greatest vulnerabilities is its dependence on fuel imports. Despite its oil resources, it lacks the refinery capacity to meet its own demand and must buy refined products on the open market. Chavez delights in helping the enemies of his enemy and needs new markets.

End of NightWatch for 7 September.