NightWatch

For the Night of 27 August 2009

Australia: For the record. The High Court of Australia, the highest court in the nation, ruled on 26 August that the Australian military justice system is unconstitutional because its judges are not independent of the military command. This ruling threatens to invalidate decisions on 171 cases judged in the last two years.

The previous government created the Australian Military Court in October 2007 as a means of enforcing military discipline, replacing the systems of courts-martial and military magistrates. "As a result of the decision of the High Court of Australia today, the validity of the decisions made by the AMC during its existence will be reviewed," Defense Minister Faulkner told reporters.

He said the government might be able to pass legislation "to ensure that the effect of the sentences passed is validated." The government also plans to rush legislation through Parliament to restore the old military justice system of trials by court-martial and military magistrates.

"In the interim, it is critical that the Australian Defense Force has a functioning military discipline system, particularly when it is currently engaged in operations overseas," Faulkner said, referring to deployments that include 1,500 troops in Afghanistan.

In the US, the Supreme Court, Congress and the Presidency have the same Constitutional basis as the Army -- the Army is established by the Constitution just as they are. The Supreme Court most often declines jurisdiction of appeals from the Military Justice system because it has no superior constitutional authority. Not so in Australia.

Japan: The unemployment rate rose to a record 5.7% in July, according to figures released today. The BBC reported companies are continuing to lay off workers even though the economy has returned to growth after the worst recession in decades.

The state of the economy is the key issue in the election campaign. General elections will be held on 30 August. Opinion polls show the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed for 53 of the last 54 years, faces defeat in the election. The new government will be led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

A new poll shows that the DPJ will likely win 320 of the 480 seats in the powerful lower house being contested in Sunday's elections, according to Asahi newspaper. China Daily waxed eloquent about DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, who has promised to improve relations with China.

North Korea – South Korea: Update. At the Red Cross talks today, the North’s chief delegate Ch'oe So'ng-ik mentioned that the delegates of the two sides traveled more than 300 km from Pyongyang and Seoul, respectively, and met at Mt Ku'mgang, the nation's famous mountain.  He said that the "Long journey feels short with a good companion," and that the North and the South should present a result of the talks that will meet the expectations of all fellow countrymen, as reported by a pro-North Korean news outlet in Japan.

Meanwhile, the South's chief delegate Kim Yo'ng-ch'o'l replied that the people at home and abroad have a high interest in the talks that are being held after a long time and that great achievements will be made this time.

The love fest … er … talks are scheduled to continue 28 August.

The North also has issued no public criticism of South Korea’s rocket launch on 25 August, probably because it failed to orbit a satellite, as did the North’s last attempt. Neither side has lost face.

It is a mistake to underestimate the strength of Korean national identity, no matter how bad relations seem between North and South regimes from time to time. Beyond the rhetoric and the huffing and puffing, NightWatch assesses the two have grown much closer since the 2000 summit than is commonly appreciated, as a working hypothesis.

North Korea-US: A group of North Korean officials visited Los Angeles last week to meet with U.S. relief organizations on the resumption of food aid to the North, diplomatic sources said Thursday (27 August).

"I understand that North Korean officials visited Los Angeles last week to meet with officials of nongovernmental organizations which had provided food aid to the North," a source said, adding the delegation consisted of officials from the Korea-U.S. Private Exchange Society, which coordinates food and other relief goods aid to the North by U.S. nongovernmental organizations.

Another source said, "The North Korean delegation made no contacts with U.S. government officials while staying in the U.S. for several days," adding that the delegation toured Operation USA and other relief groups and food and medical supply warehouses set aside for aid.

Humanitarian food aid was suspended in March, when the North Korean government expelled officials of foreign nongovernmental organizations amid escalating tensions over the North's rocket launch. This visit tends to confirm those assessments that attribute the latest thaw in external contacts to a serious economic decline, especially pervasive and most likely chronic food shortages.

The North has not made a public appeal for aid, most likely, because it wants to avoid a loss of face. Most of the world has donor fatigue, especially for North Korea, which invariably fails to convey its gratitude. Nevertheless, conditions must be serious for the North to make contact as described… despite the North’s 150-day campaign for prosperity.

China: A Chinese delegation called on the United States to reduce and eventually halt air and sea military surveillance close to its shores, during a special meeting on maritime safety between the two countries' militaries on Wednesday and Thursday, Xinhua reported on Thursday, citing China's Defense Ministry.

Five times this year, Chinese ships have confronted U.S. surveillance ships in international water, claimed by China, the U.S. Defense Department said in May. China said the U.S. ships violated its territory. There has been a sixth incident since May.

"China believes the constant U.S. military air and sea surveillance and survey operations in China's exclusive economic zone had led to military confrontations between the two sides," the ministry said. "The way to resolve China-U.S. maritime incidents is for the U.S. to change its surveillance and survey operations policies against China, decrease and eventually stop such operations."

Comment: This is the height of Chinese cheek. The story behind the story is that the Chinese want the US to stop surveillance because China can’t adequately hide its strategic assets on the coast, its construction of new port facilities, and other military improvements.

The US Navy plays hard ball, not bean bag. The Chinese statement could be interpreted as a threat, but probably should be exploited as an invitation to steal, meaning to step up US surveillance.

India-Jammu and Kashmir State: Update. Security authorities announced that the number of Islamist separatist militants in the state is between 600 and 800. Earlier this year, they said the number was 1,000 to 1,200. They gave no explanation for the decline, but said infiltration from Pakistan has increased this month.

The latest numbers mean that India only maintains 300 to 400 policemen, paramilitary police and army commandos for every militant in Kashmir. Those ratios do not include the more than 200,000 Indian Army soldiers manning the Line of Control opposite Pakistani Kashmir. These are force ratios that ensure success in that the militants remain primarily an organized violent crime problem. Without Pakistan as a safe haven, they would be no problem.

Afghanistan: The BBC reported the US special envoy to Afghanistan, Holbrooke, held an "explosive" meeting with Afghan President Karzai about the 20 August election. In strong language Holbrooke reportedly raised US concerns about ballot-stuffing and fraud, as claimed by a number of candidates. The US envoy also supposedly said a second-round run-off could make the election process more “credible.”

The BBC reported a number of senior sources have confirmed the details of the meeting between Karzai and Holbrooke, on 21 August, the day after the elections. They described the meeting as "explosive" and "a dramatic bust-up". Holbrooke is said to have twice raised the idea of holding a second round run-off because of concerns about the voting process.

Comment: At this point, the press reports show that the pro-Karzai vote count is steadily pulling away from that for Abdullah Abdullah, his closest competitor. Fraud or not, Karzai appears to be on a course to win the election in the first round.

If that is the case, most Afghans won’t care, considering him the lesser of two evils. The Taliban already denounced the election as illegitimate, but they think all elections are illegitimate, unless they hold them. The Pashtun south voted to survive, by not voting.

On the other hand, should the Tajik Abdullah Abdullah win, most observers predict nation-wide rioting will occur, against the northerner. A so-called western-style “credible outcome” is not possible in Afghanistan without generating violence. Besides, the “credible outcome” is irrelevant to the Afghans; it is a marketing piece in the US and NATO countries as a metric of progress.

During the Soviet occupation, outbursts of this kind, assuming the report is accurate, were common and resulted in strained relations that helped shorten the Soviet occupation. The Afghans proved at that time they really could take care of their affairs without outside help. The post-Soviet Najibullah government survived for two years, but the process was neither antiseptic nor bloodless. The Warsaw Pact collapsed sooner than the Najibullah government.

This revives a nagging NightWatch question. Before and during the Soviet occupation, the Afghan Army was almost as good the Pakistan Army, man per man. Afghan pilots flew modern Soviet aircraft in the 1980s. Soldiers manned and operated modern air defenses. The monarchy and the socialist republic fielded over 200,000 soldiers, who were glad to get out of the village and enjoyed getting a steady paycheck.

The forces loyal to Kabul made the central government the warlord of warlords. Only the US introduction of the Stinger missile into the arsenal of the mujahedin in 1986 undermined a successful security system that kept Islamic radicalism in check.

The question is: how come the Soviets could sustain a large and effective Afghan Army between 1979 and 1992, but the US cannot after 8 years, thousands of American dead and wounded and billions of dollars of aid?

The answer seems to be that the Soviet-built Afghan Army was primarily recruited from Pashtuns and built upon a foundation of Soviet support since the 1920s. The US-built Afghan National Army was started from scratch, for reasons that remain a mystery; was underpowered, under-equipped and under-manned from the start in 2001; and is recruited from Tajiks and Uzbeks from the north.

Pashtuns seem to make the better soldiers vice killers, but the Taliban have the Pashtun recruiting franchise. Feedback welcome.

Iran–Afghanistan: Foreign Minister Mottaki said the insurgency in Afghanistan could spread throughout the Middle East and Central Asia unless it is "completely eradicated," Press TV reported 27 August. Mottaki said the insurgency in Pakistan originated in Afghanistan and likewise could "spread not only to the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf region but also to India and Central Asia." Also, foreign powers, specifically in Europe, are deliberately creating insecurity in the region, said Mottaki.

This is another example of cheek. Iran is responsible for a significant amount of instability in Afghanistan, especially in the western provinces, and Mottaki’s history is inaccurate by any measurement. There is no prospect of a spread of Afghan nationalism or xenophobia to the Arab or Persian worlds much less to India. Moreover, the Afghan and Pakistani insurgencies have different goals, are rooted in different economic and social strata in each country, and do not withstand differential analysis. They are not two aspects of a common phenomenon.

That is why the AFPAK nomenclature is unhelpful. There is no unity of effort; no similarity in recruitment base; no shared strategic direction and no common desired end state, plus only tangential cooperation. Misdiagnosis guarantees no cure. Mottaki’s analysis is perfidious at best.

Saudi Arabia: A suicide bomber lightly wounded a senior prince who is largely credited for Saudi Arabia's anti-terrorism campaign. The would-be assassin blew himself up just before going into a gathering of well-wishers for Ramadan, the state news agency said Friday.

The militant who attacked the assistant interior minister, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, late Thursday at the Ramadan gathering in Jiddah previously expressed his intention to give himself up to the prince, the Saudi Press Agency quoted the royal court as saying. It is customary for senior members of the royal family to hold regular open gatherings where citizens can air grievances seek settlement of financial or other disputes or offer congratulations, during Ramadan.

Upon hearing news of the attack, King Abdallah swiftly headed to hospital, according to the agency. It said the prince, who is the son of Interior Minister Prince Nayef, was discharged from the hospital and nobody else was seriously injured.

This was the first known assassination attempt against a member of the royal family since Saudi Arabia began its crackdown on al-Qaida affiliated militants eight years ago following the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States. Expect the crackdown to get much worse.

Yemen: For the record. The United States wants to help Yemen fight al Qaida there in an effort to prevent the country from becoming "another Afghanistan where al Qaida can train, plan and execute terrorist actions" against the United States, senior U.S. State Department counterterrorism adviser Shari Villarosa said, The Associated Press reported 27 August. Villarosa added that security in Yemen has "deteriorated significantly" and the United States wants the Yemeni government to pass stronger legislation against financing terrorism. She also said Yemen must tighten its border security.

Hunh? Admiral Mullen says the situation is deteriorating in Afghanistan, but the US wants to help Yemen. This is confusing.

Russia –Belarus: President Medvedev and Belarusian President Lukashenko failed to agree on a wide range of economic issues and grievances in their 27 August meeting in Sochi, Russia, Reuters reported. "The presidents confirmed their desire to make extra efforts to more actively solve the problems that have stacked up in relations," Medvedev's chief foreign policy adviser Sergei Prikhodko told reporters.

Nevertheless, the two presidents agreed to attend the West 2009 military exercise in Belarus on 29 September, presidential aide Prikhodko added. Medvedev will also participate in a session of the EurAsEC (Eurasian Economic Community) Interstate Council in Minsk on 27 November, Prikhodko said.

The significance is that Readers should pay attention to the military cooperation more than the economic disagreements. On security issues, such as the West 2009 exercise, the two presidents are in full agreement.

West 2009 will be one of the largest joint, combined arms exercises since the fall of the Soviet Union. It is focused on the landward and seaward defense of the Kaliningrad enclave, a Russian territory on the Baltic Sea that is wedged between and surrounded by two NATO members, Poland and Lithuania.

Russia has not abandoned the prospect that it might again “lead” the Baltic States. Medvedev said last year that agreements can be broken, referring to the Baltic States’ accession to NATO.

Georgia: Update. Deputy Defense Minister Bacho Akhalaya was named as the country's new defense minister, RIA Novosti reported 27 August, citing a statement by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili's administration. Akhalaya said he would aim to increase Georgia's defense capacity, modernize its military and speed up the process of NATO integration. … Right.

NATO has little fortitude for another confrontation with Moscow over NATO’s eastward expansion policy. If any country is favored for conditional membership, it is the Ukraine, over Georgia. Today, a NATO spokesman announced that NATO would take Ukrainian views into consideration in its strategic deliberations.

Sudan: The commander of the joint U.N./African Union, UNAMID, force, Martin Luther Agwai, said Sudan's Darfur region is no longer at war, Reuters reported 27 August. The area only faces banditry involving water and land at a local level, he said, which could carry on without a peace agreement. Referring to the Justice and Equality Movement, he said: "Fighting to secure ground and dominate it and move on and say 'this is our territory' ... that is finished."

Somehow the statement sounds like a declaration of victory prior to departure.

Algeria: El-Khabar quoted a security source today as saying that Algerian security services have put 129 mosques and Brotherhood premises in the town of Annaba under "tight surveillance." The measure is reportedly connected to the arrest of five people suspected of links with Al-Qa'ida in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM), El-Khabar reported.

The significance of the move is that is puts recruitment centers under watch. “Neutering,” in the sense of stopping recruitment, is a permanent solution to an insurgency, provided the follow-up is consistent and thorough.

France-Africa: Paris-based LCI Television broadcast yesterday an address by President Sarkozy to the conference of French ambassadors meeting in Paris on 26 August. Sarkozy announced a new policy by which France will "support" Africa in dealing with "the growing threat from al-Qa'ida."

He said France was in the process of updating its relationship with Africa, increasing its aid and seeking new partners among countries other than former French colonies. France will "mobilize to support Africa in view of the growing threat from al-Qa'ida, whether in the Sahel or in Somalia."

"What has happened during the past few months, notably in Mali, in Niger, and in Mauritania, is a clear sign," Sarkozy said, referring to the abductions of westerners in Mali and Niger earlier in the year, and the suicide attack near the French Embassy in the Mauritanian capital, Nouakchott on 8 August.

"France will not allow Al-Qa'ida to establish a sanctuary at our gates, in Africa," he stressed, adding that this message must be taken on board.

This is tonight’s good news. The statement appears to be a refinement of an earlier policy statement by Sarkozy that the leaders of former French colonies could not automatically count on French military of political support in the face of insurrection. Yesterday’s statement provides more focus and purpose to French military missions in Africa. It also appears to support wider economic engagement.

Honduras: Today the US State Department expressed regret that the Michiletti government rejected the proposals by the delegation from the Organization of American States.

End of NightWatch for 27 August.