NightWatch

For the Night of 25 August 2009

South Korea: South Korea failed to put a satellite into orbit today. The rocket launch was successful, but stage separation for the satellite failed. South Korean media reported the government’s acknowledgement that it failed to communicate with the satellite.

Oddly, with Russian assistance both North and South Korea have achieved the same level of competence in satellite launching, meaning none. Next time try a US contractor, instead of the Russians.

Pakistan: Two senior Pakistani Taliban commanders told the press that Baitullah Mehsud is dead, the BBC reported. This is the second time group leaders have confirmed Mehsud's death.

The two commanders, Hakimullah Mehsud and Wali ur Rehman, said injuries sustained in a U.S. missile strike earlier in August led to the leader's death. Hakimullah said Baitullah was critically wounded in the strike but did not die until Aug. 23. Rehman said that Hakimullah has his support as a leader and denied reports of differences between himself and Hakimullah.

The really odd thing is that Pakistani intelligence officials insist that Hakimullah Mehsud also is dead.

Afghanistan: A car bomb explosion in the southern city of Kandahar killed at least 40 people. More than 60 people were also hurt as buildings collapsed in the attack in the centre of the city, doctors said. The explosion took place shortly after the first results were announced in the presidential election – possibly a coincidence.

Earlier a bomb killed four US soldiers, making 2009 the deadliest year for foreign troops since the US-led invasion overthrew the Taliban.

The elections produced no pause in the insurgency. Reports of electoral fraud are so numerous that any results must be suspect. 20 August no longer looks like a good day. That implies that the NATO security surge supported an electoral fraud. If Abdullah, the Tajik, succeeds in forcing a run-off with Karzai, expect a spasm of anti-Tajik violence.

In any event, violence will worsen. There are too few Western soldiers to make much of a difference in the security situation, which is essentially in the control of the Pashtun and other anti-foreigner tribes. In one analysis, the entire US Army could be committed to Afghanistan, but could not secure the countryside unless it occupied it for a generation.

Iraq: "We worked ourselves out of a job," according to a US military officer, referring to the sharp drop in violence over the past two years. "This is what the end of a counterinsurgency looks like."

Actually the US officer is incorrect and looking backwards, not forwards. The next stage of the insurgency is just beginning. It features a violent breakout from US-enforced power sharing, but the US now is de-fanged by common consent and on the side lines. The Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds want to slug it out without the US as the referee. This is not success, just postponement of the end game.

The unfinished business is political control of Baghdad, between the Sunnis and the Shii. The US is no longer relevant to this smoldering grudge match, by common consent. The Shia backed by Iran should win, on the numbers, thanks to the US military effort to support majority rule, but the bloodletting is likely to get much, much worse.

Honduras: Today, the Interim Government rejected remonstrations by the Organization of American States to have Manuel Zelaya restored to office. Honduran national elections remain on track for November.

End of NightWatch for 25 August.