NightWatch

For the Night of 23 August 2009

 

North Korea-South Korea:  The North Korean delegation that attended the funeral of Kim Dae-jung extended its stay a day to hold brief talks with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.  South Korean media reported the delegation delivered a personal call for improved ties from leader Kim Chong-il.

 

It was the first high-level meeting between the countries in nearly two years and the atmospherics of the 30-minute session, which a spokesman described as "very serious and gentle."

 

The Associated Press on 24 August repeated reports by two South Korean news services who cited unidentified government officials that the North Korean delegation conveyed Kim Chong-il’s desire to hold a summit with President Lee. Lee reportedly said only if the nuclear program is discussed. The South Korean government denied the news reports

 

The thaw continues. Last week, President Lee said he does not intend to soften his hard-line policy towards North Korea, but an easing of tension creates pressure for policy change.

 

North Korea-US:  Last week after meeting North Korean emissaries from the UN Mission, Governor Richardson confirmed the North expects a significant reward for releasing the two US journalists.  The North expects direct talks with the US as well as aid.

 

Sri Lanka-Pakistan: The Telegraph reported on Friday that Sri Lankan military authorities are swamped with requests for training by countries around the world, in the aftermath of the crushing of the Tamil Tigers.

 

 “We received a request from Pakistan to train their officers on our small team operations, so we have decided to open several new training schools in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Vavuniya to train local and foreign military officers," said Lieutenant General Jagath Jayasuriya, Sri Lanka's new army chief. The army's operations manuals were being translated into English so other nationalities could learn their "innovative" strategies, he said.

 

Sri Lanka has a low-tech, low-cost, relatively, solution to insurgency that appears to be in demand.

 

Pakistan: “The 42- member” Shura council of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) meeting in Orakzai Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas appointed Hakimullah Mehsud as the new leader of the group, the BBC Urdu service reported 22 August. The Shura also appointed Azam Tariq as the group’s spokesman. The acting head of the TTP Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, told the BBC Urdu via phone from an undisclosed location and insisted that Baitullah Mehsud had not been killed and was instead ill.

 

The appointment of Hakimullah Mehsud as his successor is in accordance with the living will of Baitullah Mehsud. Mohammad added that TTP rivals Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadir are also pleased with the appointment of Hakeemullah Mehsud. Mohammad also said that his group was ready for negotiations with the Pakistani government but that Islamabad was not in a position to talk because of foreign pressures.

 

Pakistani intelligence officials said on 23 August that the naming of Hakimullah Mehsud as the new leader of the Pakistani Taliban on 22 August is likely a diversion to hold the movement together, Reuters reported. An unnamed Pakistani intelligence official said that while the announcement by the Taliban was authentic, Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a shootout days after Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed by a U.S. air strike 5 August.

 

Another intelligence official said the announcement was aimed at buying time until one of Hakimullah's brothers could return from fighting in Afghanistan to take over leadership of the Taliban.

 

According to Dawn news paper, which also quoted Faqir Mohammad, the shura had 22 attendees. The vote was unanimous. Faqir Mohammad again became a deputy to the leader and remained the Pakistani Taliban amir of Bajaur Agency in Pakistan.

 

According to The News on 24 August, the shura to replace Baitullah Mehsud has not yet met, but plans to within the next five days. A Commander Wali ur Rehman in South Waziristan claimed he was the acting chief.

 

None of the stories are credible. The Pakistani government version about Hakimullah dying in a shoot out has the merit of consistency in that the government has stuck to its version all month.  Nevertheless all parties are dissembling. The government is engaging in information operations to aggravate leadership rivalries in the insurgency. The insurgency is trying to project its leadership is intact and its membership is not in disarray.

 

The leader, if one is selected, might not be know before the end of Ramadan, which began Saturday.  Two things seem clear: the name of the movement did not change, as Faqir Mohammad announced; the threat has not diminished. All the lads claiming leadership are as vicious and less well-mannered as Baitullah.

 

Note: One of the more instructive reports from the weekend was disclosed by the Pakistani Interior Minister who claimed that the Pakistani Taliban executed an unknown number of Baitullah Mehsud’s blood relations and relations by marriage because they spied on him and ratted his movements to US and Pakistani authorities. 

 

The Daily Times reported “No new strategy was undertaken while hunting Baitullah. Agents pin-pointed the TTP chief’s position and the CIA took him out through a drone attack,” officials familiar with training agents for tracking down targets told Daily Times. “He (TTP chief) was simply not spotted through the powerful lens fixed on the drone, rather the complete set of procedures laid down for such missions was followed,” the officials said

 

A belt wrapped above an agent’s waist carries two electronic chips, the officials said. “The agent pushes the first chip when he finds himself close to the target to intimate the satellite, which transfers the information to the control-room. The second chip is pushed only when the target is present and the agent has moved to a safer place. That is what happens when the drone is positioned and Hellfire missiles are fired,” officials explained.

 

The Taliban confirmed they had executed a resident of Mardan on charges of spying for the CIA, one week after the August 5 drone attack. The killed man’s family said he had served Baitullah as his driver, according to the Daily Times. 

 

The BBC carried the same story. In Mardan, a driver for Baitullah Mehsud was buried a day or so after the 5 August attack, but the news at the time reported he was killed with Baitullah Mehsud. 

 

Afghanistan: US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mullen said today that the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, and that the Taliban insurgency has become more sophisticated in its tactics, Reuters reported. Mullen said General McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, is still completing his assessment of the situation in the country, and has not yet requested additional troops.

 

The CJCS’ comments are unusually candid but the timing is odd … three days after the elections.

 

Germany-Afghanistan:  Reuters reported 22 August that German Foreign Minister Steinmeier, who is bidding to oust Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany in an election next month, said he wanted a timetable for a military pull-out from Afghanistan.

 

Steinmeier, a member of the Social Democrats (SPD) who share power with Merkel's conservatives, said once it became clear who would lead Afghanistan after last Thursday's election there, talks should begin over how long foreign troops should stay. "We need to agree with the new Afghan president...how long international troops should remain in Afghanistan," he said at the sidelines of an election event in Dortmund on Saturday.

 

The security surge was linked to the elections, despite hopes by some that presence would translate into permanence.  A number of NATO and ISAF members will start withdrawing their forces now the elections are over.  The fighting and loss of life are not popular among most European electorates, which are calling their parliamentary leaders to account.

 

Honduras:   According to the BBC, the Supreme Court rejected a proposal by Costa Rica for restoring Manuel Zelaya to the Presidency.  The Court restated that Zelaya’s removal was constitutional and warned that he is wanted for treason and other crimes. He will be arrested if he returns to Honduras to stand trial.

 

End of NightWatch for 23 August.