NightWatch

For the Night of 18 August 2009

South Korea: Former President Kim Dae Jung died today. Kim Dae Jung was the architect of the now maligned and abandoned “Sunshine Policy” of engagement with the North and participated in the only summit between leaders of South and North Korea in 2000. That year still stands as the high water mark in South-North relations.

North Korean leader, Kim Chong-il expressed condolences over the death of Kim Dae Jung, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on 19 August.  "Upon hearing the sad news that ex-President Kim Dae Jung passed away, I express my deep condolences to Mrs. Ri Hui Ho and other bereaved family members," Kim Chong-il said.  "Though he passed away to our regret, the feats he performed to achieve national reconciliation and realize the desire for reunification will remain long with the nation."

Rocket update. During this Watch, news services have not reported the launch of the Korean Space Launch Vehicle from Naro Space Center. It is scheduled for 19 August.

China- North Korea: Update. China's top nuclear negotiator, Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, is expected to arrive in North Korea on 17 August as part of Beijing's efforts to restart six-way talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program, a diplomatic source said, Yonhap reported

India-Pakistan: Indian Defence Minister A K Antony said today there are dozens of militant training camps active near Pakistan’s border with India along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, which should be dismantled as soon as possible.

“As long as the terrorist camps are functioning in the border areas on Pakistani soil, certainly there is a threat to India, and it is a fact,” he said in the southern state of Kerala, the PTI news agency reported. He said that despite India’s continuous urging, no militant camps had been completely dismantled along the India-Pakistan border.

Pakistani authorities replied that they would investigate India’s allegations after receiving more information about locations and activities.

Hmmm… Many sources have alleged the camps on the Pakistan side of the Line of Control were set up by Pakistani intelligence. If not that, then Pakistani intelligence would be woefully remiss in not knowing where they are and what the militants are doing. Pakistani intelligence is not remiss.

Either way, the Pakistani request for information is disingenuous, except as a fishing expedition to learn the fidelity and frequency of Indian intelligence and surveillance. The militant camps in Pakistani Kashmir have been the subject of repeated demarches, including by the US and the UK.

Winter weather will begin soon in the Kargil Sector and other northernmost regions of Kashmir. By September, the anti-Indian militants will have begun annual pre-winter preparations and operations to infiltrate supplies and fighters across the Line of Control into India’s Jammu and Kashmir State before bad weather sets in.

Minister Antony’s statement signifies the Indians have begun their annual pre-emptive political push to pressure Pakistan to close down the camps used for infiltration. Pakistan never does which means it refuses to abandon support for terrorism as an instrument of its national security policy. The number of excuses and justifications are legion, but the fact remains anti-Indian militants could not operate in more than a dozen camps in Pakistani Kashmir along the Line of Control where Pakistan Army brigades are based and paramilitary police patrol without active and official Pakistan support.

And if the Islamabad government claims to be unaware, then it should fire its national security leadership for incompetence in securing the national territory.

Pakistan: The chief spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban was arrested yesterday in the Mohmand tribal area, near the Afghanistan border. Today Maulvi Omar confirmed that the group's leader, Baitullah Mehsud, is dead, officials said. A minister from North West Frontier Province said Maulvi Omar admitted Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a US drone attack earlier this month.

Maulvi Omar is the second prominent Taliban figure to be arrested in 24 hours. Qari Saifullah, a commander affiliated to Harkat Jihad-e-Islami, was detained while being treated at a private hospital in Islamabad, officials said, reportedly after being wounded in a missile strike.

The Pakistani Taliban have had more than enough time to prove that Baitullah Mehsud is alive, were that the case.

Comment: The Chandigarh Tribune in India is the only news outlet to publish that the death of Baitullah Mehsud will have no lasting significance on instability. It argued that he has only been the Pakistani Taliban leader since December 2007. Even then, other Mahsuds and leaders from other Pashtun tribes resisted formation of a more unified movement as creating a target and Baitullah’s leadership because his operations against Islamabad undermined the security of their operations against US forces in Afghanistan.

The part of the story that is not included in the cheerleading over Baitullah’s death is the relief other tribal leaders have over Baitullah’s death. His viciousness reinforced American efforts to persuade Pakistani authorities to designate militants as a national security threat to Pakistan, making them all targets. The Tribune article forecast that they will continue the fight, but in a more decentralized fashion that is harder to destroy. The central entity Baitullah ran most likely cannot be restored because it was an outgrowth of him and his style. Most tribal fighters in the frontier region probably won’t miss him.

South Waziristan. After several false starting dates, the Pakistan Army said today that it will need several months to prepare for an offensive against Taliban insurgents in South Waziristan, Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed said 18 August, Reuters reported. Ahmed was speaking with reporters after briefing the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke.

Ahmed said the Pakistan Army was now focused on "choking" off supplies to insurgents in South Waziristan, and once the fighting capacity of Taliban insurgents is sufficiently degraded, Pakistani forces will begin a ground offensive, which may happen during the coming winter, but most likely later in 2010.

This sounds like the Army is timid after the Swat operations, which took months longer than announced.

Afghanistan: Update. A rocket hit the presidential palace and another hit the police headquarters in Kabul on 18 August, causing some damage but no injuries, The Associated Press reported. A Taliban spokesman told a Reuters reporter that four rockets were fired in the capital. A suicide bomber attacked a NATO convoy on the outskirts of Kabul, killing 8 and wounding more than 50, according to The Guardian.

Security. The Foreign Ministry has ordered foreign and domestic media organizations to refrain from reporting attacks while polls are open during the 20 August presidential election, Reuters reported today. The ban on broadcasting news of attacks is aimed at preventing voters from being intimidated by reports of violence, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, and will be in place from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. local time. A separate decree from the Afghan Interior Ministry ordered reporters to stay away from the scene of any attacks on 20 August.

Mauritania: Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb claimed responsibility on 18 August for the 8 August suicide bombing at the French Embassy in Nouakchott that wounded 3 people, Reuters reported. Also, on a website, the terrorists posted the statement, "This operation came in reaction to the hostility of the Crusaders -- led by France -- and their apostate agents against Islam and its people."

Yesterday, the American Peace Corps announced it has withdrawn more than 100 of its aid workers from Mauritania because of safety and security concerns. The agency said the volunteers have been moved to Senegal and will not be returning because of the danger of traveling in Mauritania. The agency has operated in Mauritania for more than 40 years.

Mauritania is now governed by a hard-line ex general, who staged a coup and engineered his election as President. Under his tenure, Mauritania has become less secure.

Mexico: President Calderon clarified remarks he made earlier that were misrepresented in the media. El Universal reported today Calderon said, ”While Mexico would never accept U.S. soldiers on its territory, Mexico respects Colombia's recent decision to allow the United States access to seven military bases,” according to an interview with Calderon in the Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo.

Border Security. According to the McAllen Monitor, officials reported no major delays at Hidalgo County’s international crossing points yesterday, the first business day after Mexican authorities replaced most of the customs officers.

Customs inspectors at all 49 of Mexico’s international crossings turned over their weapons to soldiers before leaving their posts at airports and border crossings across the country Saturday night. The Tax Administration Service replaced them with 1,400 better educated and trained agents who have undergone background checks and months of training, Tax Administration Service spokesman Pedro Canabal told The Associated Press on Sunday.

Fewer than ten percent of those replaced had more than a high school education and most had not undergone background checks for ties to the drug cartels. The replaced agents will be allowed to apply for employment with the Tax Administration Service after passing education and background tests.

The main focus of the overhaul is to combat tax evasion, Canabal said. But Mexico is also trying to seize more weapons smuggled in from the United States and elsewhere that could land in the hands of the country’s hardnosed drug cartels. For instance, the Mexican army seized 20 grenades concealed in foam sponge inside a vehicle that crossed at the Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge on 3 August.

Mexico has been checking only 10 percent of the 230,000 vehicles that cross the border each day, according to the federal Attorney General’s Office. New technology installed at several crossings

south of the Rio Grande Valley allows agents to weigh and photograph every car and truck that crosses the border, as regularly occurs north of the Rio Grande.

End of NightWatch for 18 August.