NightWatch

For the Night of 12 August 2009

North Korea-Japan: The North Korean official in charge of Japanese affairs said today he hopes the next Japanese administration -- after the coming general election -- will drop Tokyo's "hostile" policies toward Pyongyang by lifting sanctions and taking other measures, Kyodo reported.

The official also dismissed the argument that Japan and South Korea will attempt to acquire nuclear weapons unless the international community stops North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The official said that in effect the two countries are already nuclear powers being under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. North Korea, consequently, is forced to "fill the nuclear vacuum in the region," the official said. Hunh?

The comments above explain why North Korean relations with Japan will be the hardest to normalize.

North Korea: Kim Chong-Il said that North Korea wants to strengthen its relationship with China, Xinhua reported, citing the Korean Central News Agency. Kim said that cultural and art exchanges serve a vital role in promoting friendly relations between the two countries. Kim made his remarks after watching a Chinese drama at the Hamhung Grand Theatre in South Hamgyong Province.

This is the second public overture to improve ties with China since May. The strain seems to have eased. The kinder, gentler North Korean attitude might be related to the report that follows.

China-North Korea: The Chinese government, citing food shortages at home, started shutting off food exports to North Korea in July and instituted a policy that only allows food shipments to North Korea for personal use and not to exceed 55 pounds, Chosun Ilbo reported 11 August.

This is the only source of this information. This action would constitute a powerful incentive for the North’s easing of tension with China. It also undercuts Chinese official statements about the limits of their influence on North Korea.

China: Setting the record straight. China Daily and international media persist in describing Exercise Stride 2009 as the largest Chinese military exercise ever. It is not; not even close. It is the largest exercise involving large-scale troop movements across the country.

The 1996 “Exercise” opposite Taiwan was much larger and involved all services, including ballistic missile forces.

As for large scale operational movements, in 1979 the Chinese force prepared, assembled and moved to invade Vietnam was on the order of ten times larger than the 50,000 soldiers in Stride 2009.

China Daily is engaging in “puffery,” but that is usual for it. Consider, the Chinese are moving 50,000 soldiers on internal lines of communication from the coast to the western border and calling it a big event. To put that in perspective, the Indians move up to 500,000 soldiers those distances every time they get angry with Pakistan. At the end of the movement phase, the forces are ready to fight a major all-arms conventional war. They can do it in less time than the 13 days of the Chinese exercise.

Pakistan: For the record. In the government effort to streamline the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, it has retired 32 officers and will fire others within the next few months, The News reported today, citing unnamed sources in the Defense Ministry. The background for this is not yet clear.

Afghanistan: The Los Angeles Times reported today,

“The CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency have concluded that the amount of drug money flowing to the Taliban in Afghanistan is far lower than widely estimated but remains critical to the insurgents' ability to survive, according to a Senate report released Tuesday.”

“The two spy agencies believe that Taliban leaders receive about $70 million a year from Afghanistan's lucrative poppy crop -- far lower than the $400-million estimate released last year by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.”

“Al Qaida's dependence on drug money is even less, according to the report by the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which found that "there is no evidence that any significant amount of the drug proceeds go to Al Qaida."

“The lower estimates suggest that other avenues of funding -- including money from wealthy donors in Arab states in the Persian Gulf region -- remain important sources of support for insurgent and terrorist networks straddling the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nevertheless, the report notes that "the insurgency is a relatively cheap war for the Taliban to fight," meaning that the militants do not need significantly larger subsidies from drug trafficking to finance their operations.”

NightWatch read the Senate Foreign Relations Committee report. The Los Angeles Times article misrepresents the substance and tone of the report. The Report presented the intelligence estimate as the lower figure in a range up to $500 million estimated by yet another source, not as new information.

The Report is, in part, a commentary on the Obama administration’s de-emphasis on drug eradication in favor of a new US strategy to break the link between drug money and the Taliban, rather than destroy drugs.

Nevertheless, the policy and military operational implications of the Report are enormous. It is explicit that the Coalition has been wasting money and military lives in a failed drug eradication program. It tends to cheer lead the new strategy, but it is difficult to discern from the Report the “new” in the new strategy, including its calls from more civilian law enforcement efforts. The Report is rambly, strays off point repeatedly, and falls short as a serious study.

For example, the Report states a shop worn intelligence estimate that the Taliban war effort only costs about $125 million to sustain per year. That means the $70 million from drug taxes represents more than half the revenue the Taliban receive. That suggests eradication is not such a bad idea, after all.

Cutting off the flow of the money is a good idea, to be sure, but it is hardly a new idea and was the primary purpose of eradication. No body knows how to cut off the money flow, despite eight years of effort, without destroying the drugs -- a state of affairs that the Report admits by implication.

One of the many digressions in the report states the Taliban earn $10 a day and double or triple that if a Taleb plants a roadside bomb. NightWatch has argued repeatedly that the US can buy peace, doing what it does best – make and spend money.

Consider, the US could put all the Taliban fighters on its payroll at twice the daily rate, withdraw all its forces except those needed to guard the paymasters, and buy the insurgency at less cost than maintaining forces, Burger King, Popeye’s, defense contractors and nautilus equipment in Bagram.

The savings in ordnance alone would be enough to buy loyalty of a sort of the insurgents, their families and their clans for as long as the US was wiling to pay. If the Taliban can buy fighters, the US should be able to out bid the Taliban for the same men. This comment intends no disrespect to Afghans; it acknowledges they are among the poorest people on the planet.

Expanding the payroll is precisely the strategy that worked to neutralize the 100,000 anti-US fighters in the Awakening in Iraq, at $300 a month per man for two years. That is the going rate for the Taliban fighter too, it seems. The good news about Afghanistan is that the Taliban have far fewer fighters than the 100,000 Iraqi Sunni tribal fighters … or they would already be in Kabul.

Finally, for all the British and allied soldiers and policemen who died trying to eradicate drugs in Helmand Province in the past five years, the Report might have bothered to apologize or sympathize for their sacrifices.

A link to the Report may be found on Senator John Kerry’s Senate home page.

Russia-Abkhazia-Georgia: Russian Prime Minister Putin said today the international community should acknowledge the independence of Georgian breakaway region Abkhazia and "agreements need to be signed with Abkhazia that recognize its sovereignty," RIA Novosti reported. Putin also said Russia would aid Abkhazia militarily if necessary.

Putin visited Abkhazia today to discuss social-economic assistance with Abkhaz President, Sergei Bagapsh, Itar-Tass reported. Putin said Russia will spend $76.9 million to support Abkhazia's budget in 2010, and more than $461 billion to build a military base and to "modernize" Abkhazia's border.

In response, Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Nalbandov said that the visit by Prime Minister Putin to Abkhazia is raising tension in the Caucasus, Reuters reported. Nalbandov called the visit a violation of all international law and described Russia's actions as inappropriate.

He said Georgia will lodge a complaint with the Swiss Embassy in Tbilisi, which represents Russian interests in Georgia.

Every action the Russians take in the Caucasus reinforces the conclusion that the fragmentation of Georgia is permanent. At this point, they appear content with that, but that contentment might quickly become conditional if the Russians can find or create pro-Russian proxies in Tbilisi.

Turkey: Correction: Thanks to a Brilliant, perceptive and keen-eyed Reader for pointing out that the Turkish Navy has amphibious commandos, not amphibian commandos (frogs and lizards).

Bolivia-Iran: A delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Bolivia on Aug. 12 to hold talks with Bolivian President Evo Morales, and the country's vice president and energy minister, El Nuevo Herald reported Aug. 12. The visit is designed to strengthen bilateral relations in areas including energy, mining, agriculture and medicine.

Ecuador: Update. Ecuador reinforced its border with Colombia as a result of its opposition to Colombian plans to allow U.S. troops to be stationed in seven Colombian military bases, Agence France-Presse reported, citing Ecuavisa. Some 1,200 Ecuadorian soldiers are being stationed for at least a month in Esmeraldas Province to reinforce 10,000 troops already in the area.

This news replaces the Colombia data that the FARC contributed to President Correa’s campaign.

Honduras: Yesterday pro-Zelaya demonstrators set a bus and a fast food restaurant on fire in Tegucigalpa, after a policeman shot a protester in the ankle, enraging the crowd, Agence France-Presse reported. Police had been deployed to disperse the protesters, who had gathered for the largest show of support for Zelaya since his first aborted attempt to return to the country 5 July.

Honduran authorities restored the curfew in the capital, effective from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.

Special Comment: Who does the quality control of analysis when the collection platform is also a weapon? The news leaks yesterday attributed to intelligence officials said three data points influenced the decision to shoot a missile at the residence of the father-in-law of Baitullah Mehsud. They form a syllogism.

Mehsud is a short man and a diabetic who likes to have his legs massaged (according to the news leak).

The drone detected a short man on the roof of the father-in-law’s house who was having a leg massage (according to the news leak).

The missile shooting establishes that the drone operator concluded the man on the roof was Baitullah Mehsud and did not care if he was wrong (inferences from the news leak data).

The problem is that hundreds of men fit the above description. The data barely creates a reasonable suspicion about the identity of the target. The operator might have consoled him or herself that it had to be someone connected to the Pakistani Taliban, whoever it was.

The only people confirmed dead are Mehsud’s wife and his driver. However, every short Pashtun man who enjoys getting a leg massage in a militant’s house in South Waziristan is a potential target, even if he is a postman.

That is targeting by profile, rather than intelligence analysis, and is very close to flagrant disregard for human life. Flagrant American disregard for Pakistani lives might help explain Pakistani anti-US sentiment.

End of NightWatch for 12 August.