NightWatch

For the Night of 11 August 2009

North Korea- US: The U.S. Treasury Department on 11 August froze the assets of a North Korean bank thought to have provided financial services to companies involved in North Korea's missile programs, The Associated Press reported.

The move against Korea Kwangson Banking Corp. means that any financial assets and bank accounts in the United States that belong to the firm are blocked. Americans are also prohibited from doing business with the bank. KKBC is thought to have provided financial services to Tanchon Commercial Bank and Korea Hyoksin Trading Corp., two firms the United States considers proliferators of weapons of mass destruction.

The news report provided no insight whether this Treasury move will do anything to hamstring the missile programs. Extrapolating from the North’s reaction to the Treasury’s freeze on $12 million in Banco Delta Asia, this action will undo all the good will generated by the Clinton visit. To outside observers, US policy towards North Korea looks as disjointed and uncoordinated as ever. To North Korea, this action makes the US administration as hostile as all its predecessors.

The timing of this action during the 30-day window after the North pardoned two trespassing US journalists constitutes a serious loss of face as the return for the North’s generosity. The Foreign Ministry, which managed the pardon, just suffered an enormous humiliation in the perception of the Corps commanders and hardline anti-US Party leaders.

China-India: The South China Morning Post reported today China has sought India's expertise in dealing with Islamic insurgency to inform its handling of political unrest in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, an official said. India has agreed to participate in a strategic dialogue to be conducted by Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and India's National Security Adviser, M. K. Narayanan, a former Intelligence Bureau chief.

The significance of this agreement is that China has had an epiphany about success in counterinsurgency tactics. It has had a close relationship with Pakistan for decades, presumably including tracking Chinese Uighurs at Pakistani intelligence-run training camps for Kashmiri insurgents. That relationship has not helped China avoid an outbreak of Islamic extremism in Uighur country.

Now China is looking to India for advice, one of two South Asian countries – with Sri Lanka – that has defeated an insurgency. That is probably both good intelligence work and good policy thinking. The Chinese have the troop and paramilitary police strength to adopt and execute the Indian model of overwhelming law and order forces in the ratio of 400 policemen for every militant.

Burma: Today a court in Burma (aka Myanmar) found opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi guilty of violating an internal security law and sentenced her to three years in prison. Ms. Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, was convicted of violating state security laws by allowing a US national into her lakeside home after he swam there. American John Yettaw was jailed for seven years, four with hard labor.

The government immediately reduced the sentence to 18 months and permitted her to serve the term in her Rangoon (aka Yangon) home. In other words, the government put her under house arrest for another 18 months, which gets her out of physical circulation during the stage-managed national elections to be held in 2010.

Ms Suu Kyi has spent nearly 14 of the past 20 years in detention, had denied the charge but said she expected to be convicted.

Comment: The lengths to which the Burmese junta has gone to control this wisp of a woman measures their fear of honest debate and political openness. They almost have converted her into a sword wielding deity dispensing justice. If Suu Kyi is ever free and democracy ever restored, the backlash against the junta and its lackeys will be limitless and bloody.

NightWatch Prayer: Pray, spare us from well-intentioned, misguided do-gooders who prolong prison sentences and other punishments on others.

By acting “stupidly” ( to paraphrase a US President), Mr. Yettaw has setback the cause of democracy by giving the junta a legal justification to impose severe limits on Ms Suu Kyi’s ability to challenge the junta. The consequences are such that observers would be justified in concluding he acted as an agent of the junta. Alternatively his narcissistic naiveté inflicted serious damage on the cause of freedom. The effect is the same, either way.

India-China: Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta, said today India has neither the capability nor the intention to match China's military force, Indian Express reported.

Mehta said India must alter its strategic planning away from a focus on Pakistan to address China’s growing power. Also, China will begin asserting itself more forcefully in the region, and this will have consequences for India, such as in the boundary dispute between the two countries. Mehta said India's strategy toward China would be to use modern technology to create a "reliable stand-off deterrent" and to reduce the military gap to counter the growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region.

Admiral Mehta’s comments are the most explicit about the nature Chinese threat ever made by a serving Indian senior military officer. Such comments have become much more explicit in this decade. He also showed that he has a clear sighted understanding of the relative importance of China vs Pakistan. India has won the struggle for regional supremacy in South Asia, especially the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy.

On a close reading, Mehta’s ending statements contradicted his opening statement. An arms race is occurring in four dimensions: geographic area, space and timing of the arrival of new modern weaponry. The leadership of Asia is at stake. India has a grudge match to play against China for the 1962 Chinese invasion of India. Memories are long in Asia.

The story behind the statement is that Mehta wants a larger share of defense rupees but not more than his service deserves.

Pakistan: Security. Today Air Chief Marshal Qamar Suleman announced that the Air Force has ordered four aerial refueling tankers from China, the Press Trust of India reported. Not state of the art but they will work with the Air Force’s Chinese-made fighters.

Neither the Pakistani Taliban nor the government has provided information that clarifies the status and condition of Baitullah Mehsud.

Politics. Former president Musharraf will face arrest if he returns to Pakistan because the police registered a case against him on today over his detention of judges during 2007. “He could either be arrested on his return or through Interpol,” said Hakam Khan, head of a police station in Islamabad where the case was lodged.

If convicted, Musharraf could be jailed for three years, he added. “He detained judges and ousted them illegally so he has to be tried for his illegal and unconstitutional actions,” Muhammad Aslam Ghuman, the lawyer who filed the case against Musharraf, told Reuters. Additional Sessions Judge Akmal Khan had ordered the Secretariat police to register the First Information Report (FIR) on the application of Ghuman during a hearing on Monday. Musharraf’s lawyers objected … strongly

The immediate significance of this action is that it is pursuant to a judicial order, rather than an order of the executive branch, such as the Attorney General. The government appears to be trying to put the brakes on trying Musharraf, but not the judiciary or the Bar. When a judge issues an order, the police must obey.

In a larger sense, the legal profession is building a fire break against future political activism by the Pakistan Army. This is a systematic and well conceived movement against military activism in politics that sets precedents for prosecution and conviction.

The actions of the attorneys and courts appear to be based on a hard headed understanding that the military cannot be kept out of politics, but can be punished after military rule invariably and inevitably fails. The legal precedents of these court actions constitute the substantive precedents and foundation for prosecuting future military coup leaders. Musharraf is the convenient and all-too-easy object in this lesson.

Iraq: US Pentagon Press Secretary Morrell said Washington was "heartened" when Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki met the Kurdish region's president, Massoud Barzani, after more than a year of deadlock, Reuters reported. Morrell said a certain number of U.S. forces are required in Iraq to assist the Arabs and the Kurds resolve ethnic differences.

Describing Arab-Kurdish tensions as one of the "most dangerous" threats to Iraq's stability, Major General Robert Caslen, the Commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, said the situation could "resolve in an ethnic, lethal force engagement." (Note: isn’t this a clumsy way of saying the tribes could shoot at each other? Hmmmmmmmmm…….)

The General exaggerates about the threat, unfortunately. If the Sunni Arab militias rise again against the Shi’i, as appears to be the case, the Kurdish problem will be a side show … a mopping up action by the victor.

NightWatch Comment: US generals and defense spokespersons need better guidance or training in when to say nothing. In the long history of Turks vs Kurds vs Arabs, the US is in danger of replacing the Ottomans as the outside actor every Iraqi loves to shoot at.

There is no wisdom in promoting the view that US soldiers are assisting in resolving the thousand year old ethnic grievances among the tribes, as General Caslen said. The US Army has insufficient knowledge and skill for such a role, whose adoption creates a huge risk to innocent US soldiers. There is no justification for such a mission in any statements, resolutions or acts of the bill payer, the US House of Representatives.

History suggests no outside party can settle the Kurdish grievances against the Turks, Syrians, Iraqis and Iranians, plus their grievances against the Kurds. The idea that US military generals could do otherwise is hubris beyond redemption. "The US Army cannot solve Iraq’s thousand year old problems" could be a bumper sticker. US Army leadership would agree.

Turkey-Iraq: Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu said in a press conference with his Iraqi counterpart that Turkey will increase the amount of water released from the Euphrates to Syria and Iraq, The Christian Science Monitor reported. Davutoglu said Turkey would also provide technology to Iraq to increase the amount of usable water it can produce.

Iraq Foreign Minister Zebari said Iraq will attempt to halt attacks on Turkish soil by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants from across the Iraqi border. Zebari also announced Turkey, Iraq and the United States would form a joint cooperation office in the Kurdish capital Arbil to share intelligence on PKK activities

The only significance of this is that it shows the Turks understand that fresh water is a negotiating lever of immeasurable importance. Imagine, increased water flow has become an incentive for overdue political action!

Kuwait: Authorities said Tuesday that they had arrested six jihadists who were planning to attack the main United States military base in the country and other sites. The facts will emerge in time.

The irony of this report is that many news services have observed over the years that Kuwait is a critical hub for international terrorism as much as it serves as a host for US forces. The significance of this report is that the Faustian bargain the Emir made with the Islamic fundamentalists to exempt Kuwait from terrorist attacks seems to be breaking down. Stay tuned.

Somali Anti-piracy Patrol: For the record. The Turkish frigate Gaziantep intercepted a skiff off Somalia and captured five pirates Tuesday on suspicion that they were preparing for attacks, the Turkish military said. Operating with NATO forces in the region, Gaziantep seized the skiff in the Gulf of Aden with the help of a helicopter and amphibian commandos, the statement said.

The operation was launched after intelligence that the boat was moving close to two ships, sailing under the British and Marshall Islands flags, within a "safe corridor" guarded by the multi-national naval force to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels.

Colombia: General Freddy Padilla de León said today that the International Criminal Court (ICC) would monitor the country's armed forces starting in November 2009, El Espectador reported. The ICC will "ratify the transparency and legitimacy of the actions of the Armed Forces," de Leon said.

Some readers might have thought the recent NightWatch essay on the ICC was alarmist.

End of NightWatch for 11 August.