NightWatch

For the Night of 9 August 2009

South Korea-North Korea: Yonhap reported the chief of Hyundai Group is expected to arrive in Pyongyang during this Watch, on 10 August, to discuss the release of an employee at the Kaesong joint industrial complex who has been detained by North Korea since March.

In a related article, Chosun Ilbo reported speculation has been growing that North Korea may free the worker, only identified by his surname Yu (aka Yoo) within the week, in line with its recent pardoning of the two American journalists. A senior government official said, "A good thing will happen in inter-Korean relations in a few days. It seems Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jung-eun will pay a surprise visit to the North on Monday."

"All available dialogue channels with the North inside and outside the government, including Hyundai Asan, are being mobilized" to win his release, a separate government official said. "Indications of affirmative signals are felt here and there."

"I understand that North Korea will use the avenue of solving the Yoo issue through talks with Hyundai Asan without imposing any burden on the government," the official said. "But there's still a chance that the negotiations can go wrong at the last moment if the North demands an apology from our government or sets other irrational conditions for his release."

A pardon for Mr. Yoo would be the sixth sign that tension has eased in North Korea and in its external relationships. The atmospherics of relations with China, Russia, and the US have improved. South Korea appears next in line, leaving only Japan, which probably will be the trickiest to improve.

North Korea: For the record. Yonhap reported that North Korean security agencies are claiming in internal media that the person responsible for the visit by former President Clinton is Kim Jong-un, the 26-year old heir apparent to Kim Chong-Il. The North Korean internal version of the event is that the “young General” insisted that President Clinton was the only acceptable intermediary provided he apologized and paid homage to Kim Chong-il in order to secure the release of the journalists.

This is, of course, completely fabricated. It is intended to become a building block in the credentials for leadership of the “young general.” In North Korea’s controlled information milieu, this is a warm, reassuring and optimistic story about the precocious wisdom of the next in dynastic succession.

Indonesia: Police Chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri said 8 August that the body of a militant recovered after a counterterrorism operation in Temanggung will be identified during the week of 9 August, according to Metro TV. The militant is rumored to be Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad leader Noordin Mohammad Top, but Danuri said he will not identify the man until results of a DNA test are confirmed and the militant's wife is allowed to see the body.

On Friday, pro-government media outlets were cheerleading for the government operation that resulted in the supposed death of Noordin Top. By Monday morning, the government adopted a much more cautious position, waiting for the evidence to drive the story. (A good strategy for all solid analysts and analyses.) Noordin Top, the mastermind of the Bali and other bombings, might have escaped. Stay tuned.

India-North Korea: The crew of a North Korean ship seized on 5 August by the Indian coast guard off Hut Bay in the Integrated Andaman and Nicobar Command has not cooperated with Indian investigators, Reuters reported 9 August, citing a statement from an unnamed official on the investigation team.

The ship, the MV Musen, was approached by the Indian coast guard for a routine inspecting because the ship anchored in Hut Bay without permission. The Integrated Command watches and patrols the waters at the northwest outlet of the Malacca Strait into the Indian Ocean.

Indian officials are waiting for permission from the Indian Foreign Ministry to berth the ship in port, and waiting for the arrival of a North Korean translator expected on 9 August. Their examination of the ship’s log showed omissions of port visits, such as that on 30 July at Singapore, and unusual port calls in China. The cargo is listed as sugar, which is what the Indians intend to confirm.

This could be another North Korean maritime dodge to ship contraband in violation of UN sanctions resolutions. Incomplete or fraudulent ship logs are the norm for North Korean merchant ships.

Pakistan: Gallup Pakistan, an affiliate of Gallup International, just published the results of a new survey of Pakistani attitudes to a variety of national security issues. The field work was done face-to-face with 2,662 men and women from rural and urban areas and from every economic and ethnic background in all four provinces of Pakistan on 26 and 27 July this year. The margin of error is + 2-3 per cent at 95 per cent confidence level.

The Largest Threat to Pakistan

When respondents were asked what they consider to be the biggest threat to the nation of Pakistan, 11 per cent of the population identified the Taliban fighters, who have been blamed for scores of deadly bomb attacks across the country in recent years. Another 18 per cent said that they believe that the greatest threat came from India.

By a substantial majority, 59 per cent, respondents said the greatest threat to Pakistan right now is the US.

Drone anger

When asked whether they support or oppose the US military's drone attacks against Taliban and al-Qaeda targets, only 9 per cent responded favorably; 67 per cent said they oppose US military operations on Pakistani soil.

Operations against the Pakistan Taliban

Concerning the Pakistan Army offensive against the Pakistani Taliban, 41 per cent of the respondents supported the campaign, with 24 percent opposed and 22 percent had no opinion.

Support for Political Leaders

As for support for elected leaders, President Asif Zardari, the widower of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, received 9 per cent support. Prime Minister Gilani was viewed favorably by 13 per cent of the respondents.

Attitudes to alternatives to the present government leadership varied. Eight per cent of those polled would support a military government; 11 per cent backed a political coalition of the ruling Pakistan Peoples’ Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party.

Six per cent supported religious/Islamic parties.

Future leadership

About 38 per cent said the Pakistan Peoples Party was bad for the country, 20 per cent believed it was good for the country and another 30 per cent said they had no strong opinion. The largest percentage would opt for Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party, as leader. At least 38 per cent backed him to run Pakistan.

Comment: The poll confirms a long standing trend that Pakistanis distrust US intentions and consider the US a negative influence in security matters, compared to the Pakistani Taliban about whom they are ambivalent. Even support for the Pakistan Army has dropped below 50% which is the first time in recent memory.

The polling data are significant because of the extent of hostility to US drone operations which has carried into general disregard for the US relationship with Pakistan. This is dangerous and will not be remedied by even successful drone attacks. They are understood as compromising Pakistan’s sovereignty and humiliating the Pakistan Army, according to the poll.

The support for Nawaz as the outsider who would clean up the mess in Islamabad replicates his campaign strategy for unseating Benazir Bhutto in 1997.

Security: On Friday, Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a drone attack by the US. On Saturday, the Taliban would-be successors were holding gun fights and killing each other. On Sunday, none of that supposedly occurred, though the US still insists Baitullah Mehsud is killed.

Tips for Analysts: Wishing for a result and estimations based on gut feelings are less cogent than using evidence to drive assessments. As yet there is no evidence any leader died from the drone attack. Baitullah is reported to be seriously ill, but not dead. Two of the supposedly dead potential successors spoke live today in Pakistan. Stay tuned.

Iran-Iraq-US: For the record. Dubai Al-Arabiyah Television broadcast on 9 August that the three US nationals detained in Iran would be "released soon" following Iraqi "mediation" efforts.

Qatar-Pakistan: Unidentified US officials dismissed last week’s reports of an attempted coup, but Qatar has reached out for military assistance to Pakistan, according to Pakistan’s The News.

Prime Minister Gilani was said to have been given the secret details of a new proposed deal between the Pakistan Army and Qatar Government for deputation of an unknown number of soldiers with the Qatar Amiri Guard. This new deal between Qatar and Pakistan -- to be inked soon after getting cabinet approval -- would be effective for five years, and may be renewed, as and when both parties agree and may be terminated on six-month notice by either party.

Under this new deal, according to The News, the Pakistani soldiers would be required to wear the uniform of the Qatar Army as their salaries and other expenditures would be paid by the host government during the period of stay for two years.

The details of this agreement were placed before the cabinet last Wednesday by Secretary Ministry of Defence Lt Gen (retd) Syed Athar Ali. The cabinet was requested to allow the Defence Ministry to start negotiations for the deal to be inked soon between the two countries. The cabinet was informed that the purpose of this agreement was to enhance and strengthen the existing bilateral relationship through defence cooperation between the two countries.

Comment: Something significant and dangerous happened in Qatar for the Amir to resort to the Pakistan Army for re-manning the force in substantial part.

The Pakistan Army is the Islamic Army of choice when Arab leaders need a neutral and loyal protector. Whole Pakistan Army brigades have served to defend and protect the Kings of Saudi Arabia for decades. Now they are to defend the Amir of Qatar, if this report proves accurate.

Pakistan always responds positively to Arab requests for mercenary forces.

Malagasy: Update. An agreement to end the six-month long political crisis was reached among Malagasy political leaders over the weekend in Maputo, Mozambique, who had been holding talks since Tuesday, 4 August.

President Andry Rajoelina who took power in March 2009 and the former presidents Marc Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy agreed on the organization of presidential and legislative elections in 15 months time. The last stumbling block was lifted when Marc Ravalomanana and his supporters obtained a general amnesty in order to achieve political and social peace. In exchange, the deposed leader agreed not to personally participate in the transition.

Readers will recall that Rajoelina with military backing overthrew the duly elected government of Marc Ravalomanana last March. Some form of national unity caretaker government apparently will run the country under the direction of Rajoelina until elections in 2011. Right.

Venezuela: President Chavez ordered Venezuela's ambassador to Colombia to return to Colombia over the weekend, according to a report in RIA Novosti on 8 August, citing a statement Chavez made on state-run television. Chavez said that Venezuela does not want to break ties with Colombia, and has no plans to do so.

Today Chavez said that Colombian troops crossed the Orinoco River and entered Venezuela, Agence France-Presse reported. Chavez said such a move is a "provocation." During his weekly television show "Hello President," Chavez said when Venezuelan troops arrived at the site of the alleged incursion the Colombian troops had already left. Chavez also said that preferential pricing for Venezuelan oil and derivatives for Colombia might end.

Chavez is looking for a new cause, now that Honduras appears to have faded. He practices a Bolivarian version on Mao’s doctrine of perpetual revolution, except for Chavez the doctrine is renamed perpetual provocation.

End of NightWatch for 9 August.