NightWatch

For the Night of 6 August 2009

North Korea-China: China’s Xinhua news service reported today, “Cooperation between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and China remains good, the head of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) said Thursday.”

Choe Thae Bok, a Secretary of the Central Committee of the WPK made the remark during a meeting with a Communist Party of China (CPC) delegation in Pyongyang. Choe said he believed the "DPRK-China Friendly Year," initiated by the top leaders of both countries, would make ample achievements through mutual efforts. The CPC delegation arrived at Pyongyang on Monday for a five-day goodwill visit.

This is the fifth event indicating that internal tension has eased in North Korea. Relations with China were strained to the point of a freeze after China voted for sanctions after the North’s nuclear test in May. In the past two days, North Korean media have carried none of the daily diatribes against US. They continue to denounce South Korea. An opening to South Korea, such as release of the worker detained at Kaesong, is among the events to be on the lookout for.

India: A court sentenced to death three people for carrying out bombings that killed more than 50 people in Mumbai (Bombay) in 2003. Haneef Sayyed, his wife Fahmeeda and Ashrat Ansari were convicted last month of murder and conspiracy. The blasts at the Gateway of India landmark and a jewelers’ market caused carnage and shocked the nation.

They were said to be in retaliation for the deaths of Muslims during riots in Gujarat state the year before. The three convicted bombers were found to have links to a Pakistan-based Islamic militant group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, which investigators believe was involved in the November 2008 attacks on Mumbai.

The significance of this item lies in India’ steadfast reliance on the rule of law and the police in responding to terrorist attacks, including the Mumbai commuter rail attack in 2006 and last November’s attack. When India sends the occasional officer to the US to attend counter-insurgency classes, the officers usually are police inspectors or paramilitary police inspectors, with law enforcement authority and responsibility in India.

It is an alternative approach that brings culprits to justice and cases to closure without stressing constitutional rights’ guarantees, all fundamental precepts of the rule of law.

Pakistan: A thoughtful editorial in the Daily Times about the move to try Musharraf for high treason made the following point:

“The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz wants revenge, and a powerful section of the media by and large endorses it. The Pakistan Peoples Party, accused of being “an extension of Musharraf rule” by people moved by the human instinct of getting even, is reluctant to proceed to trial for very pragmatic reasons. “

“The November 2007 emergency order of General Musharraf names some people as ‘consultees’, and among them are the officers in the military high command, including the current army chief (General Kiyani). The rumor is that the army has communicated its view about any trial of General Musharraf to the Supreme Court through a leader of the lawyers’ movement.”

Musharraf will never be tried for treason because the opposition will never obtain enough votes to pass a resolution ordering a trial. The issue is not popular, except among the media. The Pakistan Army’s steadfast opposition to the trial of one of its own will triumph and that is probably a good thing for internal stability. However, the vote of members on the issue will be used against them in future elections.

Counterfactual analysis: Had Musharraf departed office leaving behind a prosperous and peaceful Pakistan, he would be a hero today. Few would remember his having usurped the Constitution, overthrown a duly elected government and undermined the parliament by attempting to change the government into an authoritarian presidential system.

Security. For the record. No authoritative source has confirmed the death of Baitullah Mehsud from any cause, including a US drone attack. The official military press spokesman, Major General Ather Waheed, told the press the reports are not confirmed.

Iraq: For the record. Iraq will remove all the concrete security barriers set up in Baghdad since the U.S. invasion in 2003 within the next 40 days, according to an unnamed Iraqi Interior Ministry official, Xinhua reported. On 5 August a spokesman for the Baghdad operation command said on state-run television that the barriers will be taken off all major and secondary roads, and that no exceptions will be made in the capital.

This is a security milestone, or an invitation to disaster.

Somalia-US-Eritrea: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the United States will expand support for Somalia's transitional federal government, and that Eritrean intrusion in Somali affairs is not acceptable, Reuters reported 6 August. Clinton, speaking at a joint press conference in Nairobi, Kenya with Somali President Sharif Ahmed, said that the United States intends to take action if Eritrea does not end its interference in Somali affairs.

SECSTATE could have used the bully pulpit to denounce Iranian involvement with Eritrea, where the émigré run website eritreadaily.net claims Iran has a strategic foothold on the west bank of the Red Sea. Eritrea has no industry for making arms to send to al Shabaab in Somalia but Somali websites claim Eritrea is a major channel for weapons to al Shabaab and other armed groups.

Kenya-US-International Criminal Court: International news coverage of SECSTATE’s visit to Nairobi quoted her as saying,” it is a great regret” that the US is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

NightWatch Comment: The statement received no coverage in the US mainstream news but it shot around the world like rocket, usually without comment except for the UK Guardian and Reuters.

“The US is at present not only not a member but government officials are theoretically banned from any engagement with the ICC whatsoever. An administration official predicted there will be increased US cooperation with the ICC but cautioned against expecting early entry.”

In December 2000, just before he left office, the former president Bill Clinton signed up to the ICC. But Bush two years later announced that the US would not be joining and a bill ratifying membership failed to get through Congress. 110 countries have ratified the Rome Statute that created the ICC but no great powers including Russia and China.

No doubt SECSTATE was thinking of dictators such as Sudan’s President Bashir, who was indicted in a pending case, and perhaps those responsible for massacres in Uganda, Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, all active before the Court.

However, retired US General Wes Clark has been mentioned for prosecution, because he allegedly approved use of depleted uranium ordnance during the Kosovo campaign. US generals in command in Iraq at various times and Israeli senior officers have also been mentioned as potential war criminals for prosecution before this Court. President Bush 43, Vice President Cheney and especially former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld also have been called war criminals for prosecution before the ICC in press that never reaches the US public.

At lower levels of authority, membership in the ICC places bulls eyes on the backs of soldiers, marines, airmen, coasties, and sailors who are carrying out orders of their civilian and military superiors. The lower ranks most often bear the brunt and blame of investigations, according to the Vietnam Vets.

Kenya is an odd venue to suggest in public a forthcoming change in US policy that has potentially devastating impact on the armed forces at all levels. It makes US military service a gamble. There is no statute of limitations on war crimes.

End of NightWatch for 6 August.