NightWatch

For the Night of 5 August 2009

South Korea: Chosun IIbo reported today the launch of "Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1" (KSLV-1), South Korea's first launch vehicle set to carry a satellite into orbit, may be delayed again beyond 11 August because of the discovery of problems during final tests by Russian researchers who co-developed the rocket. Yesterday, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology said further analysis of the test results will be completed, after which Russia and South Korea will discuss an appropriate launch date.

North Korea: Note: Some commentators criticized the Clinton mission to North Korea as rewarding bad behavior. An alternative and arguably more accurate observation is that the mission rewarded good behavior, especially considering a state of war exists. The North handled the case according to its laws without engaging in a propaganda circus, as it has done in earlier periods. There was no show trial; no accusations the journalists committed espionage; no physical abuse.

By its action yesterday, the North reset the basis for talks and the burden of the next move is now on the US. The US probably has a window of opportunity that will remain open for about a month before this invitation is withdrawn.

Pakistan: The ripple effects from the Supreme Court ruling have begun

Politics: Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, the Leader of the Opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in the National Assembly, told the House today the PML-N leadership has decided to move a resolution in the National Assembly during the ongoing session to invoke Article 6 against Musharraf for breaching the Constitution of the country,” if the government takes no initiative.

The PML-N leader wanted to know why the PPP parliamentarians and leaders are silent and why no next step is being taken following the verdict of the Supreme Court. He said “a treason case was registered against Maulana Sufi Muhammad (the leader of the continuing Swat District militant uprising) on the basis of a single speech but the government was not ready to initiate a case against Pervez Musharraf, who played havoc with the country and its Constitution.”

He said it is clearly mentioned in Article 6 of the Constitution that any one who subverts the Constitution would be tried for committing high treason. “I hope the government will take action against Musharraf after taking the party into confidence,” he said.

Prime Minister Gilani replied the government would move immediately on a “unanimous resolution” to try Musharraf for treason.

Comment: Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N party wants vengeance, or justice, for Musharraf’s 1999 coup against him as well as for his actions in office. The actions of the PML-N bespeak a conviction that elected government will never be safe from military usurpation unless Musharraf is made an object lesson of the consequences of ignoring the Constitution.

The Prime Minister, on the other hand, is applying the political breaks so as to avoid provoking yet another military uprising against civilian government. His statement about the need for a unanimous resolution establishes a high standard for the PML-N to meet before the government would initiate a trial, which could become either a political travesty or a threat to the Pakistan Army. As long as Musharraf stays out of politics and out of Pakistan, the immediate threat of military political action to protect its image would seem to outweigh the long range deterrent benefits of trying Musharraf for treason, but it is a close call.

It is important to bear in mind that the “government: to which Gilani is referring is the majority party in Parliament. This debate is not like to the US Congress trying to force the US Executive Branch to take action. In parliament a majority vote can require the Attorney General to bring a case to trial, which is precisely what Chief Justice Chaudhry alluded to in the Court’s ruling. If the “government” refuses, it risks a vote of confidence that it could lose. The situation is not yet ripe for that drama because Nawaz Sharif is not in parliament … yet.

Judiciary. All five justices of the Baluchistan High Court – one of the four provincial courts – resigned today and requested President Zardari to grant them early retirement. All had sworn allegiance under Musharraf’s Provisional Constitution Order in November 2007 and would be subject to investigation by the Supreme Judicial Council of Pakistan for disobeying a direct order of the Supreme Court of Pakistan to refuse to take Musharraf’s oath of office.

The appellate process has stopped until President Zardari appoints new justices.

In Islamabad, two justices of the Supreme Court resigned today so as to avoid scrutiny and judgment by the Supreme Judicial Council for disobeying the order of the Supreme Court in 2007.

This process is just beginning.

Iran: Toda Mahmoud Ahmadi-nejad was sworn in as president of Iran for a second term in office, The Associated Press reported. In his inaugural address, Ahmadi-nejad, referring to Western countries that had not congratulated him on his re-election, said, "Nobody in Iran is waiting for any congratulations from your side. We neither care about your grumpy approach nor about your smiles and congratulations."

Speaking after the swearing-in ceremony he his government "will not remain silent, we will not tolerate disrespect, interference and insults," Haaretz reported. Hundreds of riot police surrounding the parliament building were confronted by hundreds of supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. No clashes were reported during the ceremony, but witnesses said police used pepper gas to disperse the crowd before Ahmadi-nejad was due to leave the building. 

In his speech, Ahmadi-nejad promised a new start. His remarks above promise that it will not include freedom of speech.

Russia-South Ossetia-Abkhazia: For the record. Russia's deputy foreign minister said today Russia will deploy 1,500 military personnel in each of Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by the end of 2009, RIA Novosti reported. The 3,000 total force-level revises an earlier statement by the Russian General Staff that 3,700 troops would be stationed in the regions, but the figure was deemed too large and reduced. The deputy foreign minister said that presently there are 1,000 Russian military personnel in Abkhazia and up to 800 in South Ossetia.

The verbal sparring between Russia and Georgia continues. President Saakashvili’s tactics apparently are to ensure Georgia’s and his political survival by attracting international attention. The record of recent history shows that he does not calibrate his provocations carefully, which is one reason for the country’s fragmentation a year ago. A second problem is Georgia does not have a powerful ally nearby, who is committed to confront Russia. Weak nations with pugnacious leaders need that.

Israel-Lebanon- Hezbollah: Brigadier General Alon Friedman, the Deputy Commander of Israel’s Northern Command, said Hezbollah has up to 40,000 rockets and is training its forces to use ground-to-ground missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv, The Times reported today. Unidentified sources said Hezbollah hopes to receive an improved version of the Iranian-manufactured Fateh-110 rocket, which can carry a 1,100 lb warhead more than 125 miles.

Unidentified sources also said Hezbollah has likely acquired large numbers of SA-18 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles that could challenge Israeli helicopters and low-flying jets. However, they claim that Israeli warnings relayed to Syria appear to have forestalled the entry of the SA-8 system into Lebanon.

The Soviet designed SA-8 is a mobile surface to air missile system mounted on a six-wheeled amphibious vehicle that incorporates its own engagement radars and missile launcher containing four missiles. It is designed for use against helicopters and combat aircraft flying ground attack missions. It would be the most effective anti-aircraft system in Lebanon and a significant upgrade to the Hezbollah threat to Israeli aircraft … maybe for one launch cycle.

Somalia Anti-piracy Patrol: South Korean naval forces off the coast of Somalia rescued a Bahaman commercial ship from pirates Wednesday, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) in Seoul said.

In the seventh operation of its kind, a group of 30 UDT/SEAL forces aboard rigid inflatable speedboats, backed by a Lynx attack helicopter, seized seven pirates trying to hijack the cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. They executed the operation at the request of the Combined Task Force (CTF) 151, a multinational naval task force to combat piracy in the Somalia littorals. The US commands the TF.

It was the first time that South Korean forces of the Cheonghae unit – the name of the anti-piracy task group operation off Somalia since March -- have captured pirates on a ship. All six previous operations succeeded in driving away suspected pirate boats from commercial ships.

Outlook. Naval and maritime authorities predict Somali pirates are likely to step up attacks in coming months as the end of the monsoon season brings better weather. Shipping agencies are increasingly resigned to placing military personnel on vulnerable vessels as the best response to pirates. "We have got to the point where everyone is just resigned to more attacks," a London-based shipbroker said. "It is getting tougher to find ship owners willing to travel there."

Poor weather is responsible for a decline in attacks in the past month, but the Combined Maritime Forces anti-piracy naval coalition said it expected an increase in incidents when the southwest monsoons end in the coming weeks.

Niger: Today election officials began counting ballots from the constitutional referendum aimed at extending President Mamadou Tandja's 10-year rule, after weeks of opposition protests and clashes at the polls. The election is rigged and the outcome is not in doubt. Tandja will be extended indefinitely.

Tandja, who defied both parliament and the constitutional court to hold the vote, insisted that by holding the referendum he was responding to the will of the people.

Honduran policy makers and mediators would do well to study Tandja, applying Neustadt and May’s technique of reasoning by analogy. One difference is that the Nigerien military stood on the sidelines instead of supporting the rule of law, the separation of powers and the Constitution.

End of NightWatch for 5 August.