NightWatch

For the Night of 4 August 2009

North Korea – US: Former U.S. President Clinton met Kim Chong-il today for dinner and to discuss several issues, according to North Korean state-run media, the Korean Central News Agency(KCNA) reported. Kim was gracious in his welcome and hospitality and granted a special pardon to the two detained American journalists, after former President Clinton abased himself by making the typical apology required by oriental despots.

The North reported events as follows:

“The official communiqué said: “DPRK supreme leader Kim Jong Il held talks with Clinton today. During the talks, Clinton expressed deep apologies for two American women journalists illegally entering the DPRK for hostile activities against the DPRK and solemnly conveyed the US government's earnest request to give them lenient treatment from a humanitarian point of view and have them repatriated.”

“The communiqué said: In accordance with Article 103 of the DPRK Constitution, Kim Jong Il issued an order as chairman of the National Defense Commission granting a special pardon to these two American journalists. Clinton expressed his gratitude and solemnly conveyed to Kim Jong Il "a message from US President Barack Obama on his views regarding the improvement of relations between the two countries."

“The communiqué said: Kim Jong Il and Clinton also had "a frank and thorough discussion on outstanding problems between the DPRK and the United States in a sincere atmosphere." The two sides agreed that they "should resolve problems by means of dialogue." Kim had a good time.

During this Watch, North Korean media reported the departure of Clinton and the naïve and very lucky journalists. All ended well, as all recent prior incidents of this type have ended … with an apology and a pardon … and as predicted by many experts.

Clinton has wanted to visit Pyongyang since December 2000, following the visit by his Secretary of State Albright. That Presidential visit was aborted by the election of Bush 43. In failing to make that visit, Clinton squandered an unimaginable opportunity to make the world safer in 2000, owing to an apparent lack of moral courage, as President U.S. Grant might have described it.

Of interest, the First Vice Foreign Minister in 2000 was Kang Sok-chu. Kang was present at Kim’s dinner with Clinton on 4 August. Kang is the top English language handler/translator – his American idiom is flawless -- in the Foreign Ministry. As he explained to NightWatch, his desk has a direct telephone line to Kim Chong-il.

For Kim Chong-il, he has now surpassed all the accomplishments of his father, Kim Il-sung. In 1994 Kim Il-sung met former President Carter in a last ditch initiative to avert a war on the Peninsula that would have destroyed the Yongbyon nuclear reactor site.

Carter’s visit led to the Agreed Framework which froze North Korea’s graphite moderated nuclear reactor and its plutonium reprocessing program for eight years. It was a resounding success beyond the dreams of its negotiators on both sides. The North Koreans kept their promises, as they understood them.

Clinton, in a reprise of the Carter visit, might have opened a path way for a new relationship with the US. That is a prospective consequence for Kim and Obama. North Korea obtained enormous international stature from Clinton’s visit, but it also requires aid and investments.

For Kim, he can go to his grave with the confident knowledge he has taken North Korean beyond where it was when his father died. He has matched his father’s skill in dealing with the US and launched missiles and detonated nuclear weapons as if North Korea were a great power -- capabilities the North lacked under his father’s rule. His legacy to his successor and heir may now be considered secure and complete. That will be how his propagandists will be prone to describe his tenure as leader.

For western observers, the Kim in the picture with Bill Clinton is a subject worth discussing. This Kim has a full head of black hair, a round face and a toothy smile. This is not the cadaverous man who presided at the Supreme Peoples Assembly session in April or at the anniversary ceremonies for his Father last month. He has made a near miraculous recovery.

Only the Chinese will know which was the real Kim. Clinton’s team will not. The Kim that Clinton saw was much healthier than the man who attended memorial ceremonies last month, which would be a tribute to North Korean medicine.

China: Security forces disrupted five terrorist plots to attack civilians in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, official sources said on 3 August, as reported by Xinhua news agency. Members of the separatist "East Turkestan" group in China and abroad had been plotting attacks against civilians since the 5 July riots in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, an official said. Security forces reportedly arrested people in Urumqi, Kashgar, Aksu and Ili in Xinjiang in connection with the plots and confiscated guns, knives, explosives and materials advocating violence and terrorism.

At last the Chinese have sown the wind and reaped the whirlwind. That means in suppressing the Uighurs, a long time source of entertainment by the Peoples Armed Police, the Han have drawn the attention of the international Islamist movement. Multiple terrorist plots are not possible in Uighur country without external Islamist support. They have begun.

India: Update. The Indian Navy will enhance its force-structure in the next few years, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta said on 4 August. The Indian Express reported that Mehta said the Navy will add an aircraft carrier, new helicopters and MIG-29s to the existing force within four years and has commissioned the Indian Naval Academy at Ezhimala in Kerala and the Naval Base at Karwar in Karnataka.

India’s goal is a 100-ship Navy.

Afghanistan: Five rockets hit Kabul today, one near the U.S. Embassy in the central part of the city, The Associated Press reported. An Afghan army officer claimed the capital's tight security forced the insurgents to use “long-range” rockets that can be fired from several miles away. The rocket that fell near the U.S. Embassy hit the house of a senior Iraqi Interior Ministry official. A U.S. embassy representative said there is no indication the rockets targeted the Embassy.

Hmmm… The rocket attacks have garnered surprising international coverage, considering the simplistic tactics for such attacks. They are point-to-target remote launch systems and involve no risk to the rocketeers and only little likelihood of hitting any target deliberately. They are a scare weapon in small number, more than a destructive threat. Rocket attacks are much less significant than the daily attacks in Kabul recorded in the NightWatch data base for May and June. July data is in the process of compilation.

At least one kinetic attack per day kills persons or destroys property in Kabul. The unpredictability of the attacks is the greatest source of concern for personal safety. Rocket attacks are much less significant and less deadly than focused roadside bombs, suicide bombers and direct fire ambushes, but the rockets seem to get all the headlines.

Iran: Update. An Iranian security official said the three U.S. citizens detained by Iranian security forces 31 July have been charged with "illegal entry," Iran's Press TV reported 4 August. The three were backpacking in the mountains between Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish areas when arrested in the Malakh- Khur border area in Marivan.

A Kurdish official in northern Iraq told Agence France-Presse the three ignored warnings not to hike in the area because of the proximity to Iran. Meanwhile, Voices of Iraq reported that Colonel Anwar Haj Omar of the Halabja police force in northern Iraq said the three Americans have links to the CIA! Thanks for that to Halabja’s finest.

But for the reference to the CIA, the Iranian charges and handling of this case are identical to North Korea’s handling of the two American journalists caught inside North Korea. The three backpackers – who were not innocent hikers as their pres credentials and background data indicate – almost miraculously have not been charged with espionage, as yet. The similarities with North Korea suggest Iran is inviting a high level dignitary to come to discuss the case. Calling President Clinton.

Russia-Georgia: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Karasin said today that Georgia is preparing a series of "events" on its border with the breakaway region of South Ossetia to mark the anniversary of the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, Agence France-Presse reported. Karasin said the events "have a clearly provocative character.

Russia's foreign ministry said today that Russia has increased the "combat readiness" of its troops and border guards in South Ossetia in response to Georgia's plans to hold events on its border with the breakaway region, marking the anniversary of the war between Russia and Georgia. Russia also said it has the right to use force to defend South Ossetia.

Most often since last August, after the smoke has cleared, the Georgian special forces usually proved to be responsible for provocations that incited the Russians. If the Russians attack Tbilisi or harass Georgian forces near the South Ossetian and Abkhazian borders, the first inference for NightWatch would be that the Georgians did something to invite retaliation. That is admittedly a bias, but it is based in evidence of Georgian practice.

Readers should expect some exchanges of fire this, most likely instigated by the Georgian ... to make a statement that Tbilisi still considers South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be part of Georgia. Peace will not return to this region until President Saakashvili is replaced in a new election with a genuine Georgian.

Russia-US: For the record. The New York Times reported today that a pair of nuclear-powered Russian attack submarines has been patrolling off the eastern seaboard of the United States in recent days, a rare mission that has raised concerns inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about a more assertive stance by the Russian military.

According to the Times, the submarines are attack subs, rather than ballistic missile launch platforms. One obvious inference is that the Russians want the US Navy and government to know they have the capability to poach in US waters again.

Niger: Nigerien voters went to the polls 4 August to decide whether Niger President Mamadou Tandja's term should be extended by three years in a referendum, Reuters reported. The country's highest court has decided that Tandja's final term must expire at the end of 2009, unless extended by today’s referendum. Tandja remains convinced his continuation in office beyond the limits prescribed in the Constitution is the salvation of Niger. Tandja joins the ranks of so many other leaders.

This is a study in democracy.

Brazil-Honduras: The government invited deposed Honduran President Zelaya to visit on 12 August to discuss the Honduras general elections set for 29 November and a “constituent assembly to reform (?) Honduras' constitution,” Agencia Brasil reported, citing Brazil's Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Zelaya’s campaign to enlist foreign backing is all he has left. He was in Mexico today, talking with President Calderon. His internal support appears to be dissipating in favor of the constitutionally prescribed process that allows Zelaya to contest the Honduran elections on 29 November.

Still, the idea that Zelaya would discuss Honduran constitutional reform with Brazilians somehow seems to border on treason, or at least bad judgment. The interim government in Tegucigalpa exiled him because of what the Honduran Congress and Supreme Court judged his unconstitutional referendum to change the constitution of Honduras. Now he appears to have invited Brazil to comment on reforming the Constitution of Honduras. Don’t Brazilians speak a dialect of Portuguese, not Spanish?

The statements from Brazil confirm that Zelaya is an unrepentant and unreformed enemy of an electorate that votes against him. They prove he would change, i.e., “reform”, the Honduran constitution, if he ever returns to Honduras. That classifies him as another, tiresome would-be Latin American despot.

End of NightWatch for 4 August.