NightWatch

For the Night of 30 July 2009

North Korea-China: A Chinese investment company has abruptly suspended a joint project with a North Korean firm that has been targeted under U.N. sanctions, a news report said Thursday.

Zhongkuang International Investment signed a deal with North Korea's Mining Development Trading Corporation, or KOMID, in 2006 to develop a bronze mine in the North and commissioned NHI Shenyang Mining Machinery, another Chinese company, to build facilities for the mine, South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper said.

The investment company, however, sent a letter to NHI earlier this month demanding it stop construction of the facilities, the newspaper reported, citing Chinese industry officials it did not identify.

NHI had hurried construction so that production could start in September 09, after Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping pledged full support for the development of the mine during his trip to Pyongyang in June last year, the newspaper said.

The Chinese government appeared to have exercised influence on the investment company to stop the project, the newspaper said, citing the industry official. The investment firm reportedly told NHI that it could not disclose reasons for the suspension, according to the report.

China is complying with the UN sanctions resolution as it affects KOMID, which is a primary earner of hard currency for the North Korean leadership. China will not tolerate North Korea as a competitor to its dominance of Northeast Asian security affairs.

India: War between India and Pakistan is not an option, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said today, according to the Times of India. The former foreign minister reiterated Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's position that talks should continue, but combating cross-border militants was nonnegotiable. Pakistan must act decisively in dismantling the militant infrastructure, said Mukherjee.

A controversy has arisen in Indian policy circles over the Prime Minister’s joint statement with Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani last week about resuming dialogue, moving beyond the issue of Pakistan-based terrorism. Earlier this week Prime Minister Singh suggested that his government’s absolute condition for talks, which Finance Minister Mukherjee repeated above, had been met by Pakistan’s acknowledgement in a legal dossier that the LeT launched the Mumbai attack from Pakistan. This prompted a storm of demurrers.

Singh’s conciliatory attitude is not shared widely in his government and in Parliament, which has now exposed to the public its factional disagreements about the sufficiency of Pakistani suppression of the LeT.

NightWatch’s basis for prediction is that Pakistan will never suppress the LeT because its attacks compel India to engage Pakistan or fight. Pakistani leaders, as well as Indian counterparts, recognize that India’s recession-immune economic growth rate depends on sustained peace on the sub-continent.

Singh is making the best of a bad situation and throwing Pakistan a bone to help Prime Minister Gilani maintain stability. The message is that if Pakistan has troubles, India is not to blame.

Pakistan: The Supreme Court of Pakistan rejected a request to initiate a treason case against former military ruler Musharraf. A 14-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by Chief Justice (CJP) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, observed on Thursday that though the Court could rule on the constitutionality of the actions of former president General (r) Musharraf, it could not initiate treason proceedings against him on its own.

The bench observed that the power to try the former president for treason and other crimes lay with parliament. The CJP remarked for the record that the National Assembly had done nothing on this issue.

The former president and his lawyers failed to appear in court for a second consecutive day on Thursday. The court had asked him to explain his decision in 2007 to invoke emergency rule and suspend the Constitution, but a court appearance at this stage of the proceedings is not mandatory.

Today’s ruling signifies the CJP and his justices are not prepared to confront the Pakistan Army over Musharraf’s extra legal orders or over the political future of Pakistan. One complication, according to some sources, is that Musharraf apparently issued all of his decrees in the name of the Pakistan Army, rather than in the name of the Chief of the Army Staff. Musharraf was no grand strategist, but he also was no fool.

The Supreme Court still has several petitions before it that concern Musharraf’s actions. Last week, a lawyer petitioned the Supreme Court to open proceedings against the former president for alleged unconstitutional behavior. Chief Justice Chaudhry observed that while the court could not hand out a punishment in this case, it could declare Musharraf’s 3 November 2007 actions unconstitutional. At least 41 unconstitutional steps were taken after the imposition of the emergency, Chief Justice Chaudhry said.

The bench was hearing petitions challenging the non-confirmation of two Sindh High Court judges and the appointment of judges who had taken their oath of office under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) of November 2007. The judges observed they would prefer not to give a verdict that could damage the country’s political and judicial system.

Comment: The actions of the Court are tonight’s good news because they show that Chaudhry has good sense in not provoking the Pakistan Army. A Supreme Court-initiated treason case would almost certainly prompt a government takeover by the loyal opposition, aka the Pakistan Army.

Chaudhry walked back from the brink of profound internal discord. As he said, to avoid damaging the political system. He is likely to find a safe path way ahead through the other issues the Court must now consider. The Court under Chaudhry does not intend to sacrifice itself for the political interests of others, such as Nawaz Sharif or Zardari.

Actions in the high court often are the public symptoms of profound political power struggles among political elites. The Court and the Army won this round. The losers are Nawaz Sharif who despises Musharraf, and Zardari who fears Army political action against him.

For example, Musharraf openly has indicated his desire and intention to return to public life after the expiration of the two year ban for government officials. The ruling of the Supreme Court on the issue of treason puts the National Assembly and the cabinet on the spot to block Musharraf’s political aspirations. More later.

Afghanistan-US: Today the US military announced it plans to use more drone aircraft to target Taliban militants in Afghanistan while focusing less on hunting down Al-Qaida figures, report said on Thursday.

Although defeating the Al-Qaida terror network remains an overriding goal for Washington, officials now? believe the best way to pursue that objective is to ensure stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

NightWatch Comment:

It is not clear from the Defense Department statement that the CIA-controlled drones will comply in attacking a different target set. DoD drones are not the same as CIA drones.

NightWatch has argued for four years that the Taliban leadership in Pakistan and Afghanistan are much more significant to Afghanistan’s future as targets for decapitation than the craven Arabs of Al Qaida. Similarly the Pakistani Taliban leaders pose a much greater threat to stability in the frontier marches than do Arabs, Chechens or Uzbeks who have shelter there. They never posed a threat to the stability of Pakistan or the free world as some at State have said in public. See Juan Cole’s excellent article on the Pashtuns.

Remove Mullah Omar near Quetta and the Afghanistan Emirate has no Imam. Remove Mullah Berader also near Quetta, but mobile, and the Taliban have no organizational genius.

Why did it take four years and hundreds of US lives for American leaders to figure out they must target the Afghan enemy leader who lives in Islamic fantasy and cries when frightened, according to those who know him. And still there are no assurances the CIA drone program is compliant.

Afghanistan: For the record. The Taliban said in a media statement 30 July that Afghans should boycott the 20 August national elections, Agence France-Presse reported. The Taliban also called for its fighters to block roads and stop voters from going to the polls. The statement said that for Afghan citizens, "To achieve real independence instead of going to fake election centers, they must go to jihadi trenches, and through resistance and jihad they must free their invaded country from the invaders."

Iraq: Authorities have set up a security station inside Camp Ashraf, in which more than 800 Iraqi soldiers and 200 police officers are now deployed, Agence France-Presse reported today, citing Police Lt. Col. Ibrahim al-Karawi. Al-Karawi said the situation in the camp is calm. He said there have been no clashes between security forces and members of the Iranian exiled opposition group Mujahideen-e-Khalq on 30 July.

Saddam Hussein supported an armed Iranian Shiite force based at the location now known as Camp AShraf for many years, as part of his pressure campaign against the Persians. The US took over the camp, but declined to suppress the MeK or turn them over to Iraqi authorities, for reasons best known by officials in the past administration.

The Baghdad government acted against the MeK as a matter of priority after the general confinement of US forces to bases. The obvious beneficiary of this action is Tehran. The MeK posed no threat to Iraq and only a mild threat to the Ayatollahs in Iran. The MeK were a minor irritant to Iran that was hardly mentioned in the exchanges between the two Shiite governments, in Baghdad and Tehran.

In this action the al Maliki government served as an agent of Iranian security interests in removing a festering irritant. Al Maliki passed the Shiite test. The Iranian exiles at Camp Ashraf, who viscerally hated the Iranian clerical government, now will never have a chance to determine whether the student protestors in Tehran are secular or just another brand of Shiite fundamentalists.

Iran: Police arrested several of the hundreds who had gathered at Behesht-e Zahra cemetery in Tehran on 30 July to mourn those killed in the unrest after the presidential election, Reuters reported. Among the mourners was opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who reportedly was forced by police to leave the cemetery. A witness said some mourners began to chant "Mousavi, we support you." Police told those gathered at the cemetery to leave "or face the consequences," a witness said.

For US national security interests, the student protests demonstrations appear tantalizingly attractive. That is self-deceptive mirror imaging. The protests have nothing to do with systemic revolution.

The facts are that even were Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced by Rafsanjani or Mousavi, Iran would still have a nuclear weapons program, would be hostile to Israel, but with more style, and would pursue regional military domination through intimidation of its Sunni neighbors. No Iranians polled in the past two decades disagree about the need for Iranian military strength, a nuclear weapons program as a strategic deterrent and Iran’s rightful place as the leader of the Islamic world. Some just distrust and dislike Ahmadi-nejad, not Iran’s strategic goals.

For the US, political change in Iran would not portend more openness to the West or greater dedication to peace. No factions, including students, disagree about the righteousness of Persian hegemony over Arabs.

No revolutionary/systemic change is remotely likely. The protestors seek to renew Grand Ayatollah Khomeini’s vision of an Islamic Republic over the stricter, less democratic vision of Ayatollah Khamenei. Neither is good for the US or Israel.

Nigeria: Army troops and police attacked the compound of the Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram, late 29 July, leaving over 100 insurgents dead in the town of Maiduguri, The Associated Press reported. According to Army commander Major General Saleh Maina, the deputy leader of Boko Haram was killed, but the group's leader Mohammed Yusuf escaped along with about 300 followers.

Nigerian security forces shelled and later stormed the mosque and compound of the militant sect which is blamed for days of violence across northern Nigeria, Boko Haram is a Hausa term that is translated, “Western education is sin.” The most influential Nigerian Muslim organizations have condemned Boko Haram.

Jama'atul Nasril Islam, the most influential Muslim organization in Nigeria, called Boko Haram and its violence “an embarrassment" to Islam.

One clear result of the Biafran civil war in 1970 is that the Nigerian federal authorities have no tolerance for sedition or secession. A group, such as Boko Haram, that purports to create an Islamic emirate in Nigeria and calls itself the Nigerian Taliban will have a short life.

Algeria: Islamist insurgents ambushed a convoy of Algerian soldiers the morning of 29 July, killing at least 14 troops, Reuters reported, citing Algerian newspapers. El Watan reported that the attacked occurred in the western province of Tipaza, about 60 miles from Algiers.

The target -- a government convoy -- indicates the attackers were Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). They attack almost exclusively the symbols of authority. An internet search disclosed that the last serious attack occurred on 22 June when Islamists killed five paramilitary police in an ambush and slit the throats of two others they abducted alive.

The interval between attacks indicates AQIM in Algeria has been reduced to a violent organized crime problem. It now operates in spasms over two or three days, after which its members run for cover. Thus another attack is likely by Monday, after which they will lie low for a month.

They have not recovered from self-inflicted casualties from biological or chemical warfare experiments in the desert in January that killed 40 leaders and experienced fighter according to the Washington Times and other news sources. AQIM managed no attacks between January and May and only six since May.

End of NightWatch for 30 July.