NightWatch

For the Night of 28 July 2009

Fiji: Update. President Ratu Josefa Iloilo will retire later this week, The Associated Press reported 28 July, citing military leader, Commodore Frank Bainimarama. Vice President Ratu Epeli Nailatikau will serve as acting president until the Cabinet and the chief justice name a replacement.

Bainimarama has subjected Fiji to democratic tutelage, although he is the product of a professional system that is completely undemocratic. Senior military officers from Fiji to Mauritania go to great lengths to stay in office and preserve their perks. But then, so do elected civilian officials. The difference seems to be that the military men disregard the constitution. The civilians attempt to alter it.

(Admin note: Why is Fiji first? Because it is the first country in NightWatch, moving west from the international dateline.)

Japan: The commander of U.S. forces in Japan (USFJ) said 28 July that "there is no reason for Japan to possess nuclear weapons on its own," Press Trust of India reported. Rice also said, "The concept of extended deterrence that has been in place for many years between the United States and Japan remains important." He added that the proliferation of nuclear weapons will "make nations less secure."

NightWatch Comment: The problem with the logic is that no elected government surrenders to an ally the government’s responsibility for national defense: not in NATO and certainly not in Northeast Asia. In the US, the accountability of the elected governments runs to their electorate, not to an ally. The era of American pro-consuls in Asia is over.

The Japanese electorate does not vote in American elections. Japanese security issues never feature in the campaign platforms of American presidential candidates. Japanese leaders are answerable to their own electorate.

So why would an American leader fail to recognize when he is talking down to the Japanese, as if it were still the post-war era in the 1950s. Alternatively, why do Americans not recognize and appreciate the implications of a successful post-War foreign policy in the Pacific that has created mature and successful democracies and free market economies that can compete in the US? The World War II era is over.

There are lots of reasons for Japan to possess nuclear weapons. One is to ensure that the North Korean leaders understand that Pyongyang is at risk from a nuclear attack by Japan -- not just the US -- as assuredly as Tokyo is threatened by a North Korean nuclear attack. Washington is irrelevant to this military problem -- missile flight times are shorter than Washington decision time.

People in US Forces Japan surely realize that Japan will at least retaliate against a North Korean attack, regardless of the US, and might attack on tactical warning, in other words preempt, which is a prudent strategy in the face of an existential threat for the second time in less than 100 years.,

Asians have been taking responsibility for their own security for more than six decades, working within and often around American restrictions. Asians in charge of their own security affairs is the normal order of Asian history. American intervention has been important for just over one-half of one century in four millennia, but it is not a normal condition. It is the blink of an eye in the history of Asia.

A mature US foreign policy would recognize, help guide and partner with the free democracies the US helped create, rather than talk down to them about what they need for their own security. The rules and rubrics of the post-World War II era of national security affairs are dead. The Chinese Olympics spread the last shovel of dirt on their grave.

Some brilliant policy adviser might consider convening a conference of the speech writers for all American generals and admirals concerned with Pacific and South Asian affairs so as to update them on the dominant themes in modern Asian history; for example, the reduction of US military bases in the Philippines from 600 in 1945 to none today. The US military forces are withdrawing steadily from the Asian land mass to the nearest continental island chains. From them, they will fall back to Hawaii and the West Coast.

The way ahead is ineluctable. Asians are taking charge of their own affairs and are not asking for American permission.

Pakistan-India: The Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) provided training, weapons and documents to militants linked to November's attacks in Mumbai, India, The Wall Street Journal reported on 28 July, citing a Pakistani investigative report. "The accused were running training camps for terrorists, providing sea and navigational training, conducting intelligence courses and directions for terrorist attack," the report said.

The Pakistani investigation report provided to Indian authorities appears to be a variation of the Indian report provided to Pakistani authorities just after the Mumbai attacks. At least the Pakistani law enforcement and legal establishment has conceded finally that the attacks were launched from Pakistan.

Afghanistan: Update. Western diplomats said 28 July that they believed Afghan officials bought a temporary truce in Baghdis Province for £20,000 ($32,866) for next month's presidential election, The Telegraph reported. A Western diplomat worried that it was part of a plot to manipulate the vote.

Mullah Malang, an Afghan lawmaker, said that the truce was paid for in cash and fell apart shortly after the agreement. He expressed no confidence in it and said that it only covered a one and a half mile radius.

Bribes are the embodiment of power sharing relationships.

Afghanistan-Taliban: Al Jazeera reported yesterday that the Afghan Taliban leadership issued a booklet prescribing a code of conduct for its fighters. Al Jazeera claims to have a copy and summarized some of its precepts.

The booklet is entitled, “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Rules for Mujahideen". In 13 chapters and 67 articles, the booklet lays out the rules governing the Taliban. It says that suicide attacks must be limited and must avoid civilian casualties. It reportedly talks of winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the local civilian population.

For analysts: a question in differential intelligence analysis. Based on the detailed analysis of more than 50 internal instability problems in 50 countries, NightWatch recognizes that the publication of rules is a milestone in the evolution of an insurrection. Before pontificating about its experience, NightWatch invites feedback on the following questions concerning the significance of Mullah Omar’s rules.

Does the publication of this book signify weakness or in the Taliban organization? Why?

Does this mean the Taliban are preparing to return to power?

Does the publication mean that fractiousness and actions by unruly elements threaten the Taliban movement or are annoyances that just confuse the message?

Does an assertion of authority of this kind signify confidence in the organization’s ability to enforce its regulations?

Does this kind of disciplinary publication signify the organization judges it is winning or that it must act to halt an internal decline… stop it from losing?

Are there other hypotheses?

Feedback is invited.

Iran: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the closure of the Kahrizak detention center in Tehran where some opposition activists are believed to have been held, Reuters reported 28 July, citing Mehr news agency. Kazem Jalali, spokesman of a special parliamentary committee set up to investigate detentions after the election, said Kahrizak was shut because of its poor condition, violating the "rights of detainees."

Jalali also said the committee will visit Tehran's Evin prison on 28 July, where many political prisoners are held. He said that presently, it is not clear whether detainees at Kahrazik had been released or transferred to another detention center

Allegations of widespread abuse of the detainees at Kahrizak appeared to have prompted the closure. Hundreds of detainees remain in custody. Release of the detainees is one of the top issues that hard line clerics visit upon the President.

President Ahmadi-nejad has asked the head of the Iranian judiciary to release by 7 August any election protesters arrested in post-election unrest who are not facing serious charges, Agence France-Presse reported 28 July. Ahmadi-nejad sent a letter to judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi requesting their release by 7 August, the anniversary of the Mahdi's birth.

Note: Ahmadi-nejad appears to be drawing on his populist instincts in order to emerge as the champion of the detainees. His actions appear to be parts of a plan for deflating the opposition, by giving a little on one or other of their central demands but without making any major concessions.

Honduras: Manuel Zelaya said on Tuesday his return to the country is imminent and he will not use violence. The return will be with "peace flags" to signify nonviolent resolution, Zelaya told journalists in the Nicaraguan city of Ocotal, 21 km south of the Honduras border. He made the conciliatory statement after learning about the Honduran justice tribunal's decision to allow his family's free transit to the border with Nicaragua.

The decision to suspend the military checkpoints to allow free transit could imply that the mistake (the coup) must be repaired, Zelaya said.

Actually, press reporting suggests Zelaya lost significant coverage because of his grandstanding stunts over the weekend. Secondly, any lapse in international coverage of his condition and claims ensures he will become as unmemorable as most of the would-be dictators of South America.

End of NightWatch for 28 July.