NightWatch

For the Night of 27 July 2009

Note: The last prior NightWatch edition was 23 July 2009.

North Korea: In a Foreign Ministry statement, the North Korean leadership restated that the Six - Party Talks are dead. However, the statement reported the North is open to "a specific and reserved form of dialogue.” The North also indicated over the weekend it is open to direct talks with the US.

Comment: A matching and merging analysis of several official statements since last Thursday and an article in the Party daily, Rodong Sinmun, shows that a change has taken place in North Korea.

The tentative indications of diplomatic outreach are characteristic of Kim Chong-il when he was healthy. There are no reports his health has improved, which would indicate Kim is back. An alternative plausible explanation, however, is that an unknown milestone has been reached in the succession process. This has eased stress and enabled the government to speak with more coherence and confidence in foreign policy.

The second, and perhaps more intriguing, change is the suggestion of a tactical change in handling issues. In the several statements, the nuclear issue has been carved out as a topic that is suitable only for direct negotiations with the US. It is not mentioned in connection with the broader “dialogue” overture.

This decoupling of issues and negotiating partners seems related to the North’s goal of achieving American acceptance of the North as a nuclear armed state. If the North’s diplomats can achieve that, the “dialogue” with other negotiating partners would exclude the nuclear issue and move on to focus on other issues, such as aid.

One point is clear. US State Department statements that North Korea has no friends and stands alone in the world are factually untrue. All members of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, Ethiopia, Iran, Burma and Pakistan are open to North Korean arms vendors and technicians or have recent deals. The North has more markets and acceptability now than it did a decade ago, before Chavez turned anti-American because of the US backed coup attempt against him in 2002.

If policy is a derivative of a calculation of leverage against North Korea based on a false assessment of the international environment, then that policy must fail. There ought to be accountability for such a mistaken assessment.

North Korea-Russia: The Russian foreign ministry said 27 July that North Korea's statement on its intention to enter into dialogue, "...is good in itself, but we would also like to understand what they mean, what the format is and what the agenda is, "Interfax reported, citing a ministry source. The source also said that six-party talks have "yielded results" and that "there is no alternative to negotiations."

Philippines: Update. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, in her final state of the nation address, said 27 July she would not try to extend her term in office and defended her controversial eight and a half years in office, The Associated Press reported. Arroyo also said she was the first southeastern Asian leader invited to the White House for a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama on 30 July to discuss security and terrorism.

India: On Sunday, Prime Minister Singh’s wife christened and launched India’s first indigenously-built nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine 'INS Arihant' for sea trials. Arihant is Sanskrit for “Destroyer of Enemies.” The launch on 26 July coincided with the 10th anniversary celebrations of India's victory over Pakistan at Kargil.

The Indian dignitaries acknowledged Russia's significant contribution to the program. All who spoke at the launch ceremony thanked the Russians present, who included the entire Russian design team and the Russian Ambassador to India, V I Trubnikov.

INS Arihant will undergo two years of sea trials before being cleared for operational duty. The boat will be fitted with indigenous K-15 ballistic missiles that can be launched from under water. The K-15 missiles, which are already under production, can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. They have a range of 700 km, about ten percent of the range of Chinese submarine launched ballistic missiles. India has a 3,500 km submarine launched ballistic missile under development.

The government has approved funding for two more Arihant-class SSBNs, one of which is already under construction. Later this year India also will take delivery of a 12,000-ton Akula-II class nuclear-powered attack submarine on a 10-year lease from Russia.

The Times of India assessed that “with INS Arihant, India has taken a big leap forward towards developing the all-important third leg of its nuclear triad -- the ability to fire nukes from the land, air and sea. The first two legs, in the shape of fighters like Mirage-2000s jury-rigged to deliver nuclear warheads and the Agni series of rail and road mobile missiles, are already in place.”

Note: This is an example of a missed strategic opportunity. Few are so clear. The US had a chance to influence, if not assist, Indian naval SSBN development to help India build better submarines and weapons. All that was required was a mature foreign policy and a slightly more enlightened insight into future time. Russia has little interest in the Indian Ocean except to sell weapons to riparian states that bother the US.

The Indian Navy would be a natural maritime partner of the US in this century, in the NightWatch view, but for short sighted policies. Any US policy to influence or shape China’s rise as a great power later this century must include India. The US Navy seems to understand this, to its credit. Others are stuck in the 1960’s South Asia balance of power mindset.

India-Pakistan: Pakistani press reported, “India's new nuclear submarine will destabilize the region and could launch a nuclear arms race, a Pakistani Naval spokesman said today, according to Aaj TV reported. The spokesman also said the Pakistani government will decide whether to build a nuclear submarine in response as the Pakistani Navy is capable of manufacturing one.”

The Paks have it right: the Indian submarine is a destabilizing development, or more accurately, a restabilizing development. The notion of an India-Pakistan military balance is as outmoded as black-and-white television. In South Asia, there is only a military imbalance that favors India.

Pakistan’s only option for survival during a military crisis is its nuclear deterrent and Indian restraint. These conditions make every South Asian military confrontation potentially a nuclear war.

Afghanistan: The government in Kabul has agreed a truce with Taliban insurgents in the north-western province of Badghis ahead of elections next month, officials say. The local Taliban have pledged not to attack voting centers and to hand key areas to government forces, officials say. There has been no confirmation from the militants.

The government says it hopes to replicate the deal in other provinces, but should be wary. The deal enfranchises the Taliban in the outcome of what should be a government activity. That is the definition of power sharing. A power sharing arrangement with the Taliban does not seem to be the government’s intention but that is the end state. It is a political victory for the Taliban because Badghis is a development target for the Taliban, not a core province of the insurgency.

By its action, the government invested the local Talebs with political legitimacy that they could never achieve by force of arms or intimidation. Kabul gave it away for free without a fight. This is not a model for other northern provinces. Nor is it a model the Pashtus will honor in the south, where they intend to disrupt the elections. It is a lesson about the political sophistication and flexibility of the Taliban leadership in advancing their cause.

Iran: Update. Ahmadi-nejad will be sworn as President on 5 August, Iranian news reported. The inauguration will occur the day after the official ratification of the decree of the president-elect by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He will have two weeks from his inauguration to introduce his cabinet members to the Parliament for a vote of confidence

Ahmadi-nejad allowed his choice for the post of first vice president to withdraw on 24 July, according to The Jerusalem Post and The Associated Press on 25 July 25. The ousted official, Esfandier Rahim Mashaei, is to be a presidential advisor of some sort.

For those cheerleading for the student opposition, this decision has little to do with that. Mashaei was Ahmadi-nejad’s concession to moderate political ideas, espoused by the opposition but this outreach initiative has resulted in his emasculation.

The pressure to remove Mashaei came from the hard-line, anti-Israel clerics. Ahmadi-nejad appears to be caught in the middle, but the hard-line anti-Israel fundamentalists have just demonstrated that he is a pawn of the hard-liners and the Revolutionary Guards. He is a cipher with a big mouth, not a power player.

Honduras: The recent demonstrations on the Nicaraguan-Honduran border in favor of citizen Zelaya were financed by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Ultima Hora reported 27 July, citing the Honduran police. A local official claims that police officials discovered a small book and receipts which show FARC's involvement.

Zelaya’s grandstanding over the weekend -- to “fulfill” his many promises to return to Honduras -- by stepping across the border briefly has backfired. He is not being taken seriously by those who supported his return, especially the US.

End of NightWatch for 27 July.