NightWatch
For the Night of 23 July 2009
North Korea-US: In
He also responded to
The North Korean Foreign Ministry issued a statement that
said her remarks "suggest she is by no means intelligent. … We cannot but
regard Mrs. Clinton as a funny lady
as she likes to utter such rhetoric, unaware of the elementary etiquette in the
international community. Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and
sometimes a pensioner going shopping. It is our view that she can make even a
little contribution to the implementation of the
The North Korean diplomat told reporters the U.S.-proposed
"comprehensive package" of political and economic incentives for
Comment. The
level of exchange today devolved into name calling and farce. Farcical exchanges between powerful countries
do not seem conducive to peace. No
The good news is that the North did not vilify or demonize “Mrs.
Clinton”, as they called her instead of Secretary Clinton. It is a significant
insult that shows the
Bearing in mind its constitutional mandate, AFP chief General Victor Ibrado said soldiers are now aware of their duty to the people they have sworn to protect, and would disobey what could be perceived as illegal orders. “We have been telling our troops that they should not follow orders if they know it is illegal,” Ibrado said.
Military information chief Lt. Col. Romeo Brawner Jr. stressed that the troops are still tasked to take orders properly given from within the chain of command.
The military top brass made the statements in response to claims of “disturbing trends” by former defense chief Avelino Cruz that the AFP would be used to implement emergency rule. Cruz said recent developments showed President Arroyo might impose martial rule and prevent the 2010 elections.
Comment. If the Philippine Congress and Supreme Court should decide to stop Arroyo, the AFP appears disposed to uphold constitutional authority. Unfortunately, the oldest security service, the paramilitary Philippine Constabulary, is the long time agent of whoever occupies Malacanang, the Presidential palace. For now, it is Arroyo.
Bashir said the Indonesian government ultimately is responsible for the attacks because it "undermines the supremacy of Islamic law" and violence will not cease until the government "follows the right path." Bashir also said if the victims of the J.W. Marriott and Ritz-Carlton suicide bombings had ever held any thoughts against Islam, they deserved to die.
Comment: The obsession with death in Sunni and Shii
Islam is cloying. In
Islamic fundamentalists invite a secular backlash that visits on them the punishments they enjoin on non-believers. Is there any religion that empowers clerics to know the will of the divinity about who deserves to live or die?
Islam certainly does not. Sunni Islam insists there is no oversight body safeguarding orthodoxy. The Quran teaches that Allah is not bound by his revelations to the Prophet because Allah is Allah and greater than the Prophet.
Enemy casualty data are never precise, of course; no Reader expects that. But even orders of magnitude nuance, balance and check Allied and Taliban boasts of victory, even when losses are inflated. Failure to provide the data always raises the question, “What are you hiding?”
If the Allies have anything to hide relative to casualties,
it is that the open source data from June and July show that the casualty
ratios portend an inevitable Taliban reoccupation of
The President’s description of certain behavior as stupid
applies. Winning generals are not afraid of releasing casualty figures, even
obviously inflated claims, as in
NightWatch will continue to report monthly compilations of casualty information reported in open sources, as it is able.
An activist close to al-Fadhli said six policemen were among the dead and 10 soldiers were among the wounded. A local official told AFP that al-Fadhli supporters fired shells at police headquarters and other buildings. The Yemen Observer reported that some protesters fired machine guns at security forces. Witnesses said soldiers fired live rounds to break up the demonstration and shelled al-Fadhli's house.
Parts of
Russia-Georgia: Today Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory
Karasin promised "concrete measures" to prevent
The comments came as U.S. Vice President Biden was visiting
Bulgaria- Romania-EU: According to an item in the Irish
Times, the European Union has again criticized
The European Commission reported in its annual report on the
two Black Sea countries, published on Wednesday, that despite some progress,
anti-corruption measures in
Both joined NATO in 2004. One news service assessed that the
EU report is likely to drive leaders in both countries towards
Question? What
would NATO do if two members resigned and joined
Someone in government is no doubt giving this some serious thought.
The interim government has made it clear that Zelaya is welcome to return to face due process of law in a constitutional court. Zelaya has declined the invitation. A relatively honest politician would seem to relish the opportunity to clear his name of corruption and treason charges. If he wins, the interim government looks foolish. Then there is the downside, if he loses.
Readers, a long essay follows.
Special Note to New Analysts: Professionalism
in Analysis.
This week, NightWatch was asked to give a presentation about professionalism to a group of foreign area experts. After consultation with brilliant, perceptive Readers who are genuine professionals (and who make a living in their professions), NightWatch crafted a presentation, parts of which are contained in this special note.
A young analyst can spend many years in service and never receive a satisfying, guiding or inspiring answer to the question, “what constitutes professionalism in intelligence analysis.” With even a cursory search, the analyst readily could find many words about analysis, analytical standards and certification requirements. Courses on analysis are everywhere now.
Nevertheless, the proliferation of words on these and related topics that NightWatch has reviewed do not come close to matching NightWatch’s now long experience. That is unfortunate.
They all miss the central point that people who work and make money in a profession understand. Besides, statements of goals and definitions ought to be written in simple declarative sentences in active voice using transitive verbs. Many words about foundational issues justifiably raise a suspicion that a writer does not understand what he is writing about.
Old timers owe you young or new analysts a concise answer that can help guide and empower your personal, professional development, even when institutional answers fall short.
Professionalism in intelligence analysis means sound judgment in applying specialized knowledge and experience to solving national security problems.
Professionalism always is about the soundness of judgment in applying knowledge and experience, not about
the depth of knowledge, years of education or diversity of experience or even
language skills. There are lots of well educated and experienced doctors,
accountants, auto mechanics and attorneys in
Most professions have concluded that judgment cannot be taught, but can be learned with difficulty and mentoring. A young or new analyst should read and have in his professional library, Dr. Philip Tetlock’s seminal work, Expert Political Judgment. It is a scholarly, cautionary study about the dangers of intellectual hubris. It is a starting point for intellectual wisdom.
Judgment is a cognitive and sensory skill in drawing correct conclusions and making accurate predictions with incomplete information. It is vastly more sophisticated than a mathematical probability calculated by DARPA software.
“Sound” means consistent and dependably high accuracy.
In the NightWatch experience, the passing grade for sound judgment is 85% accuracy in every judgment made … ever. If an analyst cannot sustain 85% accuracy, his customers should consult the predictive market at strategypage.com, instead of him. Its members score 85% accuracy by guessing about the outcome of some 500 issues... consistently and dependably all the time. You can bet on it and they do!
The NightWatch standard is 90% accuracy in its predictive judgments, which it exceeds. It is higher than 90% in its causal, relational and diagnostic judgments. Feedback helps ensure those standards are maintained.
“Consistency” is often overlooked and undervalued. Patients go to doctors who have a reputation for curing illness and saving lives, not once but all the time. Most patients look for healers, more than education. They look at years in practice and results over time. Interestingly, some in the medical profession consider “healing” a gift that cannot be taught.
Most legal clients seek out attorneys who have a reputation for winning in court or negotiations, regardless of where they studied. What counts most in the legal profession is passing the Bar and winning in practice. Lots of stellar and brilliant law school students never get to practice law because they fail to pass the Bar Exam, which tests application of the law. Professions take knowledge for granted. Skill in legal work is often described as a gift that cannot be taught. Some consider it an inherited trait that runs in families.
NightWatch considers predictive accuracy in analysis -- in other words, the ability to think accurately in “future time” -- to be a gift as well. At one brief period in the late 1990, the Directorate of Intelligence, Joint Chiefs of Staff, had six analysts in a pool of 120 who had this gift. The norm was one in 120 analysts, over a 12- year time period. It cannot be taught, but can be cultivated in those who have it, in the NightWatch experience.
Customers of intelligence analysis ought to have high expectations from their analysis centers, i.e., they should “get it right” most of the time. “Getting it right” is a diagnostic judgment that dictates the range of appropriate problem solving solutions, all the time and every time.
”Getting it wrong” constitutes prima facie malpractice and there ought to be consequences for malpractice in analysis in national security affairs because lives may be and have been at great risk because analysts failed. Every profession has penalties for malpractice.
The “specialized knowledge” is the ways living national systems behave so as to thrive when healthy and survive when not. Knowledge of the system of nation states is necessary and useful, but not enough for achieving professional judgment in analysis of international security affairs. Professional analysts of national security threats are more than biological card catalogues.
Knowledge of nation state behavior alone ensures no more than 75% accuracy in predictive judgments, in real life experience in the J2, Joint Chiefs of Staff. In the open source world, Tetlock’s work indicates customers should expect less than 30% predictive accuracy. Both figures are less than the empirical experience of unclassified predictive markets that achieve 85% by pure guesswork. These are chilling and humbling data points.
Thus the aim of intelligence analytical education, training and work experience is to nurture consistent and dependable sound judgment in the application of knowledge and experience in national security problem solving. Put simply, if our well educated and experienced analysts can’t do better than dilettante guessers, they need to get other jobs, and the agencies need to rethink their recruitment criteria.
Intelligence analysis is purposeful behavior, as in any other profession. The professional purpose is not to become brilliant. Knowledge for its own sake is a worthy pursuit, but it is not an attribute of a profession. The goal, purpose and product of the profession of analyst is to apply knowledge and experience to maintain the security of this great Republic.
Astute Readers by now will have deduced that NightWatch has an evaluation process for the accuracy of its judgments. As one incredibly brilliant professional Reader remarked, we ain’t playing bean bag.
NightWatch evaluates four kinds of judgments in its work. They are:
-analytical in the sense of breaking down a phenomenon into its causes and key drivers;
-synthetic in the sense of matching and merging as derivatives of reasoning by analogy;
-diagnostic in the sense of defining the phenomenon and phenomenology of the issue under analysis
-prognostic in the sense of predicting the way ahead.
Knowledge and experience in area and functional studies are interesting. They appear to be necessary and sufficient for analytical and synthetic judgments, as defined above. Those are fairly low grade inferences that in time will be accomplished by computer programs. DARPA is working on those programs now.
They are necessary but not sufficient for diagnosis and prognosis, which are the two cognitive functions or skills that distinguish the professional. Sensory sensitivity is critical in both functions and also often overlooked. Those with the diagnostic gift know always to start from a known state and are keenly sensitive to the slightest departures from normality, especially in international security affairs. The departures always are indicators of change.
Good technical assistants do breakdown, matching and merging work in doctor’s and law offices all over the country. Professional excellence lies in sound diagnosis and prognosis. They require the professional instead of the technician.
The tests of sound judgment that NightWatch always applies are taken from the scientific method: auditability, replicability and inability to be refuted.
Expertise is merely the starting point of what people call “analysis” in the generic use of that much abused term. It is not the end state and not sufficient to achieve the end state described in this note: professional judgment.
Young and new analysts, you are working on developing your professional judgment, not your academic credentials or the number of your deployment badges. Everything else should be devoted to refining and improving your judgment or it has no value to you in the profession of analysis.
End of NightWatch
for 23 July.