NightWatch

For the Night of 17 July 2009

China: Friday prayers came and went in Urumqi in Uighur land without incident apparently.

Pat Buchanan, with his genius for capturing the lessons of history and applying them today, wrote in June about an incident in Moscow in 1825. Tsar Nicholas I was confronted by demonstrations in Moscow calling for a constitution, an end to despotic rule and creation of a republic, in the backwash of the French Revolution when its ideas eventually reached Russia.

A General in the Tsar’s army rode up to Nicholas and advised that he either clear the square with fire or abdicate. Promptly the canons roared and Tsar Nicholas I ruled for 30 years.

The Han soldiers and police cleared the square of Urumqi with fire; as did the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran in June. Neither story ends there, of course, but the chapter is closed for a while.

Pakistan: Politics. In a four-hour meeting held in Raiwind today, President Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif failed to agree on a timetable to repeal the 17th Amendment and implement the Charter of Democracy from 2008, a key demand by Sharif without which he is not ready to make any concessions to the government.

The 17^th Amendment was passed by the National Assembly (parliament) in 2003 at the request of General Musharaf to create a presidential system of government; subordinate the prime minister and National Assembly to the President and allow Musharraf to serve as Chief of Army Staff as well as President -- a prima facie violation of a separate constitutional provision which Musharraf’s National Assembly conveniently side-stepped. Repeal of this amendment was central to the 11-point agreement between Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Sharif’s PML-N that produced the coalition that trounced the pro-Musharraf party in national elections in 2008.

Zardari, as PPP leader, continues to renege on the agreement. Repeal of that amendment would relegate the presidency to a figurehead once again, as in India and like the monarchy in the UK and Malaysia. The underlying idea of the amendment was to legitimate Musharraf’s unconstitutional overthrow of the government in 1999.

The Supreme Court, in a unanimous decision today, acquitted Nawaz Sharif of hijacking charges stemming from Musharraf’s 1999 coup against Sharif’s government, The Associated Press and all Pakistani media reported. This ruling removes the final impediment to Nawaz Sharif’s running for public office. Readers should expect him to be elected to the National Assembly by the end of the summer in a by-election in some remote PML-N constituency after one of his acolytes retires for health or other persona reasons.

With this ruling, the old politics resumes in earnest. Nawaz has made no secret that he wants revenge against Musharraf. Zardari and Musharraf’s presidential system have outlived their usefulness. The political system is on the path to restore the 1973 Constitution of a more authentic parliament.

Nawaz cannot yet become prime minister because of term limits still in effect. He has the skills, however, to persuade a compliant National Assembly to amend the constitution as easily as Musharraf did, so as to permit him to become prime minister again, in time.

Nawaz’ eventual return to prominent elected position in Pakistan will not be good news for the US because the US fully backed Musharraf, ignoring his insubordination to duly elected civilian authority; his disregard for rule of law; his disdain for the 1973 Constitution and his destruction of an elected, ever corrupt, parliamentary system of government passed on by the founders of Pakistan. Nawaz would make the US pay dearly for Pakistan’s cooperation in any endeavor, unlike Zardari.

Arif Jamal’s Assessment. One of the foremost experts on jihad in Pakistan gave an interview to Pepe Escobar of Asia Timesoline, which was published today. It is cautionary. Arif Jamal, author of Shadow War: The Untold Story of Jihad in Kashmir, tended to confirm our worst fears. The Swat Valley campaign has been all smoke and mirrors and a show for the benefit of Americans. The Army cannot and will not stay and the militants will return.

According to Jamal, Pakistani military strategists, led by Colonel Akhbar Khan, used the term jihad to provide a more acceptable cover term for government-sponsored, armed and violent subversion of India in Jammu and Kashmir State almost 50 years ago. They knew then that there was never a “military balance” between India and Pakistan.

Pakistan lost every war with India and could not defend itself or prevent its dismemberment unless it found a way to tie down hundreds of thousands of Indian security personnel and soldiers in Kashmir. These geniuses did the same thing in Afghanistan, with US backing, and the two insurgencies were always linked through the Pakistani armed forces, which used its intelligence agent, ISI, as the fall guy.

The strategy worked well as long as India was the only target. Jamal points out that the militants always broke discipline and the control of the Pakistan Army’s proxy, ISI. They expanded the target set and invoked the wrath of the United States.

Finally, Jamal said Musharraf never took action to restrain insurgents in Afghanistan or Kashmir, essentially in defiance of the US. He played the duplicitous game of allowing both the US and the insurgents to operate from Pakistan, according to Arif Jamal.

For the Army, the enemy is India. What army needs nuclear weapons to fight a law and order problem? The words are crafted to placate the Americans and the operations are aimed at keeping the “wogs” in their place.

Musharraf, said in an interview published today that “Extremism and terrorism from the Taliban and Al Qaida, and not India, are the biggest threats to Pakistani society.” He told Karan Thapar of CNN-IBN’s Devil’s Advocate program, however, the situation would have to be re-examined if “there are threatening noises coming from the Indian side”.

The interview, recorded on Wednesday in London and being aired on Saturday and Sunday in two parts, also questioned whether Pakistan was providing official patronage to anti-India groups. Musharraf denied such reports, saying they were not being granted official patronage.

NightWatch Comment: The overwhelming evidence is that Musharraf is a liar whose actions always betrayed his words, and an opportunist who always goes for the money and the spotlights. He continues to live under the delusion that he saved Pakistan, apparently from the constitutional democracy that Pakistan’s founding father, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, said Pakistan needed.

He wants to return to office to vindicate his corrupt, even by Pakistani standards, duplicitous administration. In this he is just like the three military thugs who preceded him in subverting Pakistan and the Pakistan Army and brought both to ruin before being forced from office. If Nawaz Sharif ever becomes Prime Minister again and Musharraf is ever caught in Pakistan again, Musharraf would be tried, convicted and hung for treason.

Iran: Tens of thousands of supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi gathered in front of Tehran University for Friday prayers 17 July, while large numbers of security forces formed a security cordon around the university. Foreign reporters and photographers were prohibited by security officials from covering the Friday prayer ceremony or even staying outside the university. Iranian security forces used tear gas and batons to disperse the tens of thousands of opposition supporters outside Tehran University and arrested at least 15 people.

What the international media reported. Senior Iranian cleric Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking at Iran's main Friday prayers at Tehran University on 17 July, called for the release of opposition supporters arrested in the government's crackdown on post-election protests, The Associated Press and the BBC reported. Rafsanjani said keeping protesters in prison "is not necessary," and, "we should not let enemies criticize or laugh at us...for keeping our people in jail."

What Rafsanjani said. He told the believer his sermon has three parts and repeatedly asked them to not chant slogans or interrupt him.

The first part was a religious lesson from the life and death of Imam Kazem, the Seventh Shiite Imam.

The second part was his assessment of what needs to be done to create national unity.

The third part was his recommendation to release hostages whose detention was not necessary and only served the interests of foreigners.

The themes Rafsanjani stated as teacher of religion are that Iranians must have the patience of Kazem who was incarcerated in chains and blessed Allah for granting his prayer to have nothing to do all day but worship. Kazem was martyred and is an example of long suffering under conditions of hardship.

The second part of his sermon cited two requirements to stabilize conditions that he said might be described as a “crisis.’ First is obey the law. Everything that happens must occur within the framework of the law. He cited “Imam Khomeyni” repeatedly about the importance of creating an “Islamic Republic.”

Second is the need to restore the trust of the people. Rafsanjani cited his own credentials as a revolutionary of the Khomeyni generation and companion of Khomeyni, in insisting that the will of the people must be heard and respected.

The third and shortest part of his sermon was his statement that to get past the crisis, the students needed to be released, not as a matter of justice but because their incarceration strengthened Iran’s enemies.

Comment: The sermon has many layers of meaning. The story of Imam Kazem, for example, appears to be a metaphor that implies that the revolution of Khomeyni, i.e., his vision of the Islamic Republic, is in chains. However, the example of Imam Kazem is of prayer and patience that ends in martyrdom with no redeeming change in the system that enchained him. Rajsanjani returned to this example in the second and third parts of his sermon.

In the second part of the sermon, Rafsanjani’s apparent trust in the law signifies his capitulation in the name of preserving the clerical regime … and no doubt his own family and wealth. His solution is to let the law work its course. In this he provided no encouragement to public displays or demonstrations. His message to the students was to trust the Imams, all of whom are Quranic lawyers, not theologians in the western sense.

The call for restoring trust in the people appears to have been directed at the regime. This is the strongest suggestion of capitulation because it set up the idea that the regime won and can show mercy now, so as to restore a sense of unity.

Several well informed analysts have noted that the internal conflict in the leadership is not about freedom or western style democracy. It is over what constitutes the orthodox legacy of Ayatollah Khomeyni.

Rafsanjani leads the faction, which includes Mousavi, that there can be no single source of orthodoxy or authority to replace Khomeyni, meaning no one man. His faction believes a committee of religious leaders should be the ultimate political/religious authority in Rajsanjani’s Islamic Republic and should act in an oversight capacity, not as a policy maker. The death of Khomeyni ended that era, according to this faction.

As a companion of Khomeyni and a prominent figure in the Qom school of religion and politics, Rafsanjani’s views carry a lot of weight among the Grand Ayatollahs and ulema (religious scholars), not to mention the fact that he is one of the richest men in Iran. As for the students, he left them to the tender mercies of tear gas and the Revolutionary Guards.

Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadi-nejad support the view that the succession to Khomeyni should be a single religious authority; that the will of the people as expressed in elections is an input, but not a directive to the government and that a true Islamic state is authoritarian, as blessed by Allah.

Neither of these views seems to capture the sentiment of the Tehran University student protestors. The religious leaders have decided to hang together to preserve the theocracy, with a veneer of democratic expression, lest they hand separately. They have chosen to repel the corrosive and subversive notions of western-style democracy, Tweeter, Facebook and You tube.

Rafsanjani’s sermon is a call to work within the system, not to overthrow it, and for the system to correct its treat its overreactions by treating Iranian youth with leniency. His justification is not because the regime has been unjust, but because the incarcerations are embarrassing and support external criticism.

Rafsanjani’s first sermon since the election is a call to live another day but work within the system. NightWatch suspects Rafsanjani, his family and all their wealth were threatened by Ahmadi-Nejad’s thugs in the Revolutionary Guards.

Post script: Rafsanjani did chide China gently about its handling of the Uighur Muslims in Urumqi, to which the congregation dutifully shouted “Death to China.”??? Rafsanjani told the believers to shut up.

Somalia: Update. The Hizbul Islam insurgent group handed over their French hostage to the al Qaida-linked al Shabaab insurgent group, giving al Shabaab control of both French hostages, Reuters reported 17 July. A Hizbul Islam leader said the hostage was given to al Shabaab because "We had been arguing a lot, and we were on the verge of killing among ourselves."

International media today reported that the Indian and French Navies collaborated in a joint hostage rescue operation to recover and Indian dhow and its crew.

Venezuela-Honduras: Venezuelan President Chavez announced a return of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya "in the coming hours," to Tegucigalpa, Reuters reported 17 July. The Associated Press said Hondurans can soon expect an alternate seat of government within Honduras, citing a presidential aide. Aide Patricia Rodas said Zelaya will lead the "final battle" against coup leaders from there.

Chavez is more hard core about restoring Zelaya to office than Zelaya is. Looks like mirror-imaging and setting an example for the Venezuelan armed forces who already tried but failed to overthrow Chavez. He acts scared.

Honduras: Interim President Micheletti said today that the Honduran army and police are prepared to repel any foreign intervention into the country's internal affairs, El Universal reported, citing Colombia's RCN. Micheletti said that other “unnamed” South American countries are sending large numbers of people into Honduras to commit guerrilla acts in support of ousted Manuel Zelaya. Micheletti claimed that in the past few hours, 56 Nicaraguans had been arrested in Honduras.

Members of the Police and Armed Forces, and the Human Rights Commissioner, yesterday warned that Venezuelan President -- and former coupist military officer -- Hugo Chavez's plans to fabricate a massacre in Honduras and generate chaos and anarchy are real.

According to sources which EL HERALDO had access to, Chavez is the ideologist of what is called "plan Caracas," whose goal is to destroy news media, burn vehicles, hurl bombs, and attack the demonstrators so as to blame Honduran military and policemen. The plan also calls for the takeover of Toncontin Airport, roadblocks on the main highways, public offices' closure; and it does not rule out Zelaya's arrival through inhospitable zones controlled by drug traffickers.

Honduran Defense Minister Adolfo Leonel Sevilla stated that his Ministry already had information (about plan Caracas), but that the Ministry did not want to alarm the population. The Ministry is asking that people should not let the organizers of these confrontation groups use them, and to remain calm carrying out their daily activities.

Question: Is this the type of subversion the US State Department is supporting? Chavez wants Zelaya back in power more than Zelaya wants back in power.

Nicaragua: President Ortega said today that a plot to overthrow him by political opponents and U.S. intelligence agencies will fail, Bloomberg reported. Ortega pointed to his backing by the country’s armed forces and police as the reason for a failure. “They’re thinking about a coup in Nicaragua to create chaos and anarchy and to call U.S. troops to come take the government away from the people,” Ortega said in a statement on the presidential Web site.

Comment: Ortega has just joined the Chavez therapy group for extreme fear of their own armed forces. Both men fear the actions of the Honduran military will be emulated by their own, apparently. They ignore the facts that the Honduran military were acting under orders of the Congress and Supreme Court to pre-empt Zelaya’s referendum initiative to subvert and bypass the Honduran constitution. If their armed forces act to overthrow them, those would be genuine military coups.

End of NightWatch for 17 July.