NightWatch

For the Night of 16 July 2009

North Korea: No updates on the status of the two US journalists in detention or on the health of Kim Chong-il. A Moscow Itar Tass report on the 13^th, however, did assert that Kim is in Wonsan, on the east coast, not in Pyongyang. That is the only press report that states where he is in residence, which is a state secret in North Korea.

North Korea at the NAM Summit: The president of the Supreme Peoples Assembly in North Korea, the ceremonial head of state, said at the summit yesterday, "For us there can be no dialogue, nor any negotiations where the principles of respect for sovereign rights and equality are denied,'' Kim was quoted as saying by The Associated Press. "The [six-nation] talks ... came to a permanent end because the U.S. and the majority of the obedient parties to the talks abandoned this principle."

President Kim said his government has no choice but to take decisive measures to further bolster its "nuclear deterrent power."

Some analysts and policy makers seem to insist that the North does not mean what it says when it declares the Six Party Talks are dead. They imply that for the right price it will return to the talks. That is wishful thinking.

The consistent theme of the North’s actions and statements are that a new format is now required that includes recognition of North Korea as a nuclear armed state with missile delivery systems. It’s time for some creative thinking by the diplomats in five capitals; the North seems to be patient and open to new ideas.

North Korea-UN: The Security Council imposed sanctions on five more North Korean individuals, as well as five entities linked to the country's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The individuals blacklisted Thursday include two officials with North Korea's General Bureau of Atomic Energy, which overseas the nuclear program.

Turkish envoy Fazil Corman, who heads the North Korea sanctions committee, said the individuals will be subject to travel bans and a freeze on financial assets. The entities are subject to asset freezes. The Security Council also banned two weapons-related items from moving into or out of North Korea.

The expanded designation list is part of a new round of sanctions imposed on North Korea in response to the May nuclear test. Expect a strong North Korean reaction, including warlike propaganda and more provocative missile launches.

China-Vietnam: China has warned international oil and natural gas companies against exploring deposits off the coast of Vietnam, according to U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel, Bloomberg reported 16 July. Marciel told a congressional committee that China has advised U.S. and foreign oil companies against seeking oil deposits below the South China Sea, and that businesses which enter partnerships with Vietnamese companies may face unspecified consequences in business transactions with China.

Welcome to the face of the “rising power.” US Senator Webb said at the hearing only the US can defend the rights of the Southeast Asian states to develop their economies without fear of intimidation by China.

The US war in Vietnam, irrespective of all its negative consequences, made possible political stability and economic development in non-communist Southeast Asia. As a great power, the US is being called to that challenge again. It is the only power in the world that still can provide a shield against Chinese economic intimidation and imperialism. Curious and instructive how historical phenomena repeat themselves but in new settings.

Indonesia: During this Watch, police in Indonesia reported bomb explosions at two U.S.-linked hotels in Jakarta killed at least seven people and injured 48. Initial reports say those killed at the Ritz-Carlton and Marriott hotels all were foreign nationals, but no further details are yet available, according to the Voice of America news service.

News reports say the facade of the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Jakarta's Kuningan district was heavily damaged.   The Marriott hotel in Jakarta was previously attacked in 2003 and the bombing was blamed on the Southeast Asian terror network Jemaah Islamiyah.

Indonesia’s presidential election outcome showed a clear and mature vote by a substantial majority in favor of secular government. The Islamists, ever undemocratic zealots, have just provided their answer to the will of the majority. Heaven help the Indonesians if they ever vote Islamist extremists into office.

India-Pakistan at the NAM Summit: Pakistan’s The News reported on 17 July that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Thursday, the 16^th, that peace talks with Pakistan would remain on hold until Islamabad took action against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks.

“A composite dialogue cannot begin unless and until the terrorist attacks that shook Mumbai are accounted for and the perpetrators of these heinous crimes brought to book,” Singh said. “The starting point of any meaningful dialogue with Pakistan has to have their commitment not to let their territory be used for terrorist activities against India,” Singh added. “If acts of terrorism continue to be perpetrated, there is no question of a dialogue, let alone a composite dialogue.”

Singh spoke the above remarks to reporters just after talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement’s summit in Egypt. The News assessed that Singh’s comments appeared to contradict the joint statement he made with Gilani in which the two leaders stipulated that action on terrorism “should not be linked” to the dialogue process.

In the joint statement briefing to the media, Singh said: “There should be serious, honest efforts to bridge the gap that separates the two countries.”He said the meetings of the top civil servants would be used to determine the nature of the future dialogue. On his talks with Gilani, Singh added: “I reiterated to him that we are willing to go more than half the way provided they create the conditions for a meaningful dialogue.”

Speaking to reporters later, Dr. Singh said Mr. Gilani had been keen to resume the composite dialogue “here and now. But I said that the dialogue cannot begin unless and until the terrorist acts of Mumbai are fully accounted for and the perpetrators are brought to book.” Unless this happened, he stressed, “I cannot agree and our public opinion will not agree.” There was no road map for resumption yet, he said, but added: “We have an obligation to engage Pakistan.”

The two Foreign Secretaries have been tasked with meeting “as often as necessary” in the run-up to a review by the Indian and Pakistani Foreign Ministers in New York this September.

In their interaction with the media, both sides exploited the ambiguity in the statement’s most dramatic new formulation —“Action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue process and these [sic] should not be bracketed.”

Some news services described the joint statement as a breakthrough and thaw in relations. Prime Minister Singh’s public statement to the conference conveys the actual state of affairs. His statements were misinterpreted by the news and apparently by Pakistani diplomats as signaling that dialogue could continue without being tied to the terrorism issue. Nothing could be farther from the truth!

Indian officials clarified that the statement meant Pakistan should not wait for the resumption of the composite dialogue to take action against terrorism.

Note to New Analysts: The precise use of language is critically important, as the above misunderstanding illustrates: two diametrically opposite interpretations of the same language in a joint statement to the entire world, with profound implications for the security relationship between two nuclear armed powers.

Work on your language skills. The words are your profession!

Somalia: Update. The Somali Islamist group Hizbul Islam has handed over one of two French hostages to the al Qaida-linked al Shaabab insurgent group to avoid conflict between the two groups, an al Shabaab official said, Reuters reported 16 July.

The French government issued an ultimatum to the Islamists to release the men or face consequences. After the recent ruling against wearing burqas in France, the French patience with non-conforming behavior in the name of Islam has run out.

A successful French rescue operation would have a salutary effect on the Islamists as well as the pirates. Some western power needs to put boots on the ground for a while to correct deviant thinking.

Sudan-Chad: A senior Sudanese army officer said two Chadian aircraft attacked targets in the Sudanese state of West Darfur on 16 July, Reuters reported citing the Sudanese Media Center. The raid was the fourth reported in two months. "The army is ready and just waiting for instructions to retaliate," said Sudanese Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Muhammad Nasr al-Din.

If the Chadian attacks occurred as claimed, there will be Sudanese retaliation.

Mauritania: Presidential elections will be held 18 July, the first since General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz overthrew the state's first elected leader in an August 2008 army coup, Reuters reported. President Abdallahi was elected in the first free and fair – according to observers – elections in the country’s history in 2007, but was overthrown for trying to keep the military in the barracks.

Only enormous outside pressure compelled Aziz to order new elections. Aziz is running for office, but there are no popular front runners because the military will ignore the vote as it sees fit. This is another exercise in promoting form over substance of democracy, at the expense of all the other uses of the money devoted to a second vote in two years. This vote is not about Mauritanian political maturity. The Mauritanian elite have already settled the fact that they do not care a fig for the will of the electorate. This is a study in democracy.

France-India: The Indian news services The Hindu and Calcutta’s The Telegraph reported that a joint service contingent from the Indian armed forces and a 90-piece military band led the Bastille Day parade along the Champs Elysee in Paris on 14 July. This is the first time Indian military forces, as a unit, have marched in Paris since World War I.

The reason India was accorded this honor is that more than $12 billions in aircraft contracts alone -- not to mention others for artillery, advanced electronics systems and naval ships -- are about to be awarded by the Indian government. This is part of the French marketing strategy.

Honduras: The Associated Press reported during this Watch that Zelaya is “on his way back” to Honduras, apparently overland from Nicaragua to rally his followers. Zelaya was encouraged by President Chavez in Caracas Venezuela today who once again charged that the US STATE DEPARTMENT staged the coup that overthrew Zelaya.

Zelaya's supporters congregated today at the southern and eastern entrances to Tegucigalpa as riot police watched the protesters gather, Reuters reported. A Security Ministry spokesman said security was being increased around the country, adding that security forces were there to prevent disorder and damage to property.

Meanwhile the interim government has reinstated a curfew between midnight to 5:00 a.m., citing threats by unspecified groups "looking to provoke disturbances and disorder," The Associated Press reported.

Someone probably has advised Zelaya that an overt overland return these days is likely to result in an arrest at the border. Zelaya is not Bonaparte returning from Elba. If Zelaya enters secretly, he is an illegal border crosser … a criminal.

Ecuador: The final U.S. counter-narcotics operation to depart from the Manta air base will take off 17 July, El Universal reported today, citing a statement made by a U.S. Embassy spokesperson in Quito. After that date, according to the statement, all U.S. flights out of Manta will be devoted to removing equipment in preparation for a move to undetermined locations in Colombia.

According to the Foreign Ministry, the U.S. withdrawal from Manta will be completed by 18 September. The original deadline was in November. President Correa wants the American military presence out as soon as possible.

End of NightWatch for 16 July.