NightWatch

For the Night of 15 July 2009

Japan: Prime Minister Taro Aso is under pressure from senior colleagues to resign as head of the ruling Liberal Democracy Party (LDP) before next month’s general election. Aso this week called a national vote for Aug. 30 after the party lost control of the Tokyo assembly, its fifth straight electoral defeat.

Both the Finance and Agriculture Ministers have asked him to resign. Several senior LDP leaders are threatening to resign rather than accept blame for the Party’s shortcomings at the Tokyo polls and in the Diet, which they blame on Aso’s leadership, or lack of it.

Former LDP Secretary-General Hidenao Nakagawa, who called on Aso to quit in June, has organized a petition seeking a party meeting to discuss selecting a new leader. “I believe the public wants the LDP to hoist a banner of reform and get united under an appropriate leader,” Nakagawa wrote yesterday on his web site.

The LDP leaders are concerned that the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will score a landslide victory. DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama was favored as prime minister by 45 percent of respondents in a Yomiuri newspaper survey published yesterday, compared with 25 percent who preferred Aso.

The conventional wisdom is that the opposition gets wisdom and maturity when it takes office and backs down from its more extreme positions aimed at attracting voters. Many American and European analysts predicted the “greening” phenomenon would persuade India’s BJP government under Prime Minister Vajpayee to decline to test nuclear weapons in 1998, despite years of having nuclear openness as a chief political plank. Thus, they were surprised when the BJP government did precisely what it promised and tested nuclear warheads.

Applying that wisdom to the DPJ, the conventional wisdom would be that a DPJ government, once in office, will see the wisdom in Japan’s deployment of Maritime Self Defense Forces to Mumbai, India, to support counter-terror operations in the Arabian Sea and to Somalia to fight pirates.

NightWatch judges the DPJ will behave like the BJP and run true to form. Extension of these commitments required the LDP government to engage in parliamentary legerdemain for their passage over DPJ objections in the upper house.

Put plainly, a DPJ government is likely to stop these expenditures and maintain a national security focus closer to home, such as on the various disputed islands that China keeps nipping at and on North Korea.

South Korea-North Korea: Tonight’s good news. A South Korean company that builds and sells cars in North Korea made money -- albeit a small amount -- for the first time last year, the company said Wednesday. Pyeonghwa Motors Corp., closely linked to the Unification Church, earned about $700,000 on the sale of about 650 cars in North Korea, a company spokesman said. The company remitted $500,000 of the net profit to its headquarters in Seoul in a U.S. dollar-denominated transaction through Hong Kong, he said.

The Pyeonghwa spokesman didn't disclose revenue figures but said last year's vehicle sales were just over twice the 2007 level. The company has already sold more cars this year, 742, and expects to sell more than 1,500 for the full year, the spokesman said. South Korea's Unification Ministry, a government agency that works with North Korean relations, said this was the first time a South Korea-based company repatriated profits from North Korea.

The performance is the culmination of an 18-year effort that began when church founder Reverend Moon Sun-myung met North Korea's then-ruler Kim Il-sung in Pyongyang to propose several business ventures. In 1999, the church spent $55 million to build the auto factory in the port city of Nampo, on North Korea's west coast. The Unification Church, based in South Korea, has a number of investments in tourism, construction and trade.

Readers might rightly ask who buys cars in North Korea where private property ownership is a gift of the state. Apparently the buyers include the local government, perhaps some foreign traders resident in Nampo, and possibly even a few members of the North Korean elite, but not many. The elite prefer Mercedes Benz, even used ones.

Free market consumer capitalism is not bursting at the seams because a company sold fewer than 2,000 automobiles in three years in one of the larger cities of northeast Asia. A visitor can spend a weekend in Pyongyang and count on the fingers of both hands, the number of cars he saw anywhere, not including those in disrepair on the side of main roads outside Pyongyang.

The interesting part of the story is that it took months of negotiations with the central bank for the company to arrange to remit its small profit -- via a Hong Kong bank. As for the other $200,000 that was not remitted, a big portion of that had to go to …er… service charges.

China: Update. State media reported the death toll from the 5 July Uighur riots in western China has risen to 192. The previous total was 184. The number of people injured that day has also risen to 1,721from 1,680.

India-Pakistan: The Daily Times reported on 16 July that Pakistani and Indian foreign secretaries on Wednesday held a second round of talks in Sharm el-Shekih in Egypt, on the margins of the Non-Aligned Movement summit -- to finalize an agenda for the meeting between the prime ministers of the two countries. Agenda talks on 14 July failed.

Apparently the second round of talks also failed to find common ground for talks. Pakistan emphasized the 15 years old composite dialogue covering all outstanding issues should resume. India linked the resumption of the dialogue to Pakistan’s taking action to prosecute the people complicit in the Mumbai terror attacks, a private TV channel reported.

The prime ministers still are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement's summit in Egypt, but there has been no thaw in relations, just restoration of superficial civility. According to Indian sources cited by the Daily Times, Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh will be sticking to his one-point ‘agenda’ of dismantling the so-called network of terrorism and arresting those responsible for planning the Mumbai attacks. Without a Pakistani commitment of that sort it is unlikely that India would agree to resume formal talks with Pakistan, the sources said.

Unidentfied diplomatic sources disclosed that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Gilani was prepared to go on a counter attack by providing India for the first time solid evidence of Indian contacts with the Taliban. Gilani is expected to hand over the evidence to Prime Minister Singh, the sources said. The Pakistan government has also gathered proofs of Indian involvement in the Baluchistan insurgency.

If Gilani makes those proffers of evidence, he will insult Prime Minister Singh and thereby ensure the talks make no progress for a long time. Not even Musharraf engaged in one-upmanship tactics of that sort with the Indians. Stay tuned.

Pakistan-al Qaida: Update. Al Qaida's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has urged Pakistanis to support insurgents in their battle against a US-led "crusade," Agence France-Presse reported. In an eight-minute, 49-second English-language video called "My Muslim Brothers and Sisters in Pakistan," posted on jihadist Web sites 14 July, Zawahiri said U.S. intervention in Pakistan's military and politics "poses a grave danger to Pakistan's future and very existence." Zawahri also said, "[If] we stand by passively without offering due support to the mujahedin, we shall not only contribute to the destruction of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but we shall also deserve the painful punishment of Almighty Allah."

The timing of this posting relative to that discussed yesterday suggests a concentrated program of incitement to unrest against the government. If popular demonstrations develop, they could pressure the government to stop operations in the North West Frontier Province and disrupt its stability program.

What is unclear is whether the al Qaida leaders are acting to exploit an opportunity they perceive or are acting to incite popular unrest so as to divert government attention and resources from combating the pro-al Qaida Pakistani militants in the tribal marches. Either way the statement adds to the internal tension and to the internal leadership debate about whether the militants or India pose the greatest threat to Pakistan.

Russia-US-Georgia: On Tuesday, 14 July, the guided missile destroyer USS Stout dropped anchor at Batumi, Georgia. That was the same day that Russian President Medvedev visited Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, where he watched military jets take target practice and discussed Russia's combat capabilities with officers in footage shown prominently on state television.

On Monday, Medvedev visited South Ossetia for the first time since the war last August. He said a Russian base in South Ossetia was "a signal to those who periodically get idiotic plans in to their heads" — apparently referring to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Aboard Stout, U.S. Navy sailors and Georgian coast guard crews held training drills. Sailors clutching mock submachine guns swarmed up ladders and pretended to fire at each other in an exercise simulating the boarding of a hostile ship.

The Russians today denounced the US ship visit.

Somalia-anti-piracy patrol: Reuters India reported today that piracy attacks worldwide more than doubled to 240 in the first half of 2009, driven by a rise in piracy in the waters off Somalia, the International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Centre said in a report on Wednesday. There were 114 attacks in the first six months of 2008, the centre said.

A lull in attacks in June 2009 due to the monsoon season was broken last week when Somali pirates made four attacks in four days in the Gulf of Aden. "The attackers were heavily armed with guns and knives in the majority of incidents. Violence against crew members continues to increase," the report said.

The Center’s report also warned of rising attacks off the coast of Nigeria, where 13 incidents were reported in the second quarter and where 24 were not directly reported to the body. "There is a need for every incident to be reported and brought to the attention of the Nigerian authorities. This is the only way in which the true risk associated to the area can be determined and accurate advice be given to shipmasters, owners and traders," said bureau director Pottengal Mukundan.

It also warned of "a clear indication that piracy and robbery in Southeast and East Asia have the potential to escalate" after attacks in the region hit 21 in the second quarter, up from 10 in the first.

The lack of reports does not signify a lapse of attention but the effects of the monsoon. The weather is the one condition that is proven to reduce piracy. The 30-odd naval ships cannot make such a claim. The Center’s report suggests their presence has made it worse, around the world.

Congo (Brazzaville): For the record. Incumbent President Denis Sassou-Nguesso won another seven years in office, according to preliminary results from Sunday's election. The electoral commission said Mr Sassou-Nguesso took 78.6% of the vote. His nearest rival gained just 7.5%.

About 2,000 opposition supporters came on to the streets of Brazzaville to protest. They were dispersed by riot police firing tear gas.

Sassou-Nguesso has been in power for most of the past 30 years. On the day, election observers said turnout was low. But figures published on Wednesday by Congo's territorial administration ministry, and reported by Agence France Presse, showed the official turnout at 66.42%. The Congolese know how to rig an election and Sassou-Nguesso is one of the best at it, except for the time he was overthrown in a military coup.

The opposition boycotted the election and then protested it was rigged. Go figger.

Honduras: Interim President Roberto Micheletti told the press today he is prepared to step down, but only if ousted President Manuel Zelaya does not return to power. "For peace and tranquility in the country... without the return of ex-president Zelaya, I would be ready to do it," Micheletti said.

For their part, followers of Zelaya today issued a call to take over "strategic points" tomorrow in Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, and other places in the country, as well as take over the land borders.

"This will be done in Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula (north), and other places where the conditions are given to carry out these takeovers in strategic points," according to Israel Salinas, of the United Federation of Honduran Workers (CUTH), in a news conference.

Diplomatic sources reported today Zelaya left Guatemala for Nicaragua. Zelaya has made no offer to sacrifice his ambition for the good of Honduras. The US Department of State continues to support a man who has been openly anti-American…. Maybe they hope he will be grateful, despite his statements and those by Chavez and Morales that the US was responsible for his ouster. Hmmm…

Bolivia: Civic and social organizations in Pando Department late 14 July declared a state of emergency to resist President Morales’ human migration project, La Prensa reported 15 July. According to his new plan, the government plans to move 4,000 people from La Paz and Cochabamba to Pando ostensibly to secure sovereignty near the borders with Brazil and Peru, but actually to change the voting pattern of the Department.

The first migrant movement of 2,000 people is set to begin in August, with support by 500 military personnel. The opposition claims the migrant project is an attempt by the government to create favorable electoral conditions in Pando for President Evo Morales.

Strong men from Macapagal in the Philippines, to Sukarno and Suharto in Indonesia, to the Kings of Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq have engaged in internal migration projects to dilute the majority of the opposition in its stronghold areas; change voting demographics; and ensure a friendly enclave in hostile territory. That is why, for example, large concentrations of Pashtuns reside within the major Tajik and Uzbek cities of northern Afghanistan and Javanese live in the outer islands of Indonesia. It is also the reason Arabs took over the lands and houses of the Kurds near Kirkuk when Saddam was in power.

Morales is marching in step with a long line of actual and near despots. This program portends violent clashes later this summer.

End of NightWatch for 15 July.