NightWatch
For the Night of 12 July 2009
Japanese political analysts consider the
One suggestion is that the failure of the LDP to retain the city government
could prompt a move to replace Prime Minister Aso as Party leader before the House
of Representatives election which must be held by 6 September 2009, according
to Angus
Reid Global Monitor. Prime
Minister Aso told senior LDP lawmakers on Sunday that he intends to dissolve
the House of Representatives as early as Tuesday for the general election, the
lawmakers said. He is expected to set the election date as 8 August, officially
starting the election campaign on 27July.
Aso’s popularity is at 20% which would seem to make it attractive for the LDP
to select a new standard-bearer going into the elections. The Democratic Party of Japan would seem to
have its bets chance of ever achieving enough seats to form a government but it
is hobbled by a series of scandals that dim its prospects, so the experts say. Nevertheless,
in 2007, the Democratic Party of Japan won 60 seats in the upper house, House
of Councilors, election that year, giving it the majority in the upper house.
The rule of thumb is, “Change Tokyo, Change
The amounts are not large; still, what’s the threat?
India-Russia: Update.
After four years of haggling over Russian demands for
more money, India has agreed to pay $2.2 billion, instead of the original
(2004) agreed on $1.5 billion, for a Russian shipyard to refurbish an old,
damaged, aircraft carrier -- the Admiral Gorshkov -- for Indian use. The ship
will arrive in
'When a true parliamentary system is in place, all institutions will work in their own ambit,’ the prime minister said. He said the 1973 Constitution would be restored in its true spirit.
This is Gilani’s first recent statement renewing the now two-year old promise to restore true parliamentary government. President Zardari might be tiring of his present duties and prefer the ceremonial functions of the President under the 1973 Constitution.
On local government.
On Friday, Prime Minister Gilani said that Former president Pervez Musharraf’s
decision to make local government a federal subject under the Sixth Schedule of
the Constitution was illegal and undemocratic,’ he told reporters after
attending a function at the ministry of science and technology. Musharraf
replaced the 150-year old system of appointed local magistrates with elected
local assemblies. In doing so, he violated the residual rights of the Provinces
in
The prime minister announced last Wednesday that elections for local bodies had been postponed until the improvement of law and order. However, local governments will be dissolved and administrators from the bureaucracy will be appointed to look after their affairs during the interim period. The administrators will start working on 1 August. The five-year tenure of the local government as prescribed during Musharraf’s tenure will expire in October and there is a strong possibility that no more local government elections will be held and the old magistracy system will come back.
‘The tenure of present local governments is expiring and since it is a provincial subject, I and the president cannot do much about it,’ Mr Gilani said, adding that the provincial governments would take a decision about the future of local governments after more consultations. The Provincial governments have the Constitutional authority to retain elected local governing bodies.
There is a strong opposition from different circles over the decision and some analysts believe that it will not be easy to replace the LG system.
Concerning
terrorism. About 150 Islamic religious
scholars from the Deoband school of thought and Mohtamims of various Deoband
institutions of the
The Regional Police Officer (RPO), Nasir Khan Durrani, chaired the meeting. The
Ulema (Islamic scholars) were unanimous in their opinion that Islam totally
rejects terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and does not allow its
believers to harm any human beings and there was no place for suicide attackers
in Islam.
The suicide attacker does not relate to Islam and being a killer of innocent
people, the religious scholars declared suicide attacker as somebody who is
“out of Islam”. The meeting was attended, besides others, by Secretary General
Wafaq-ul- Madaris-e-Arabia Punjab, Qazi Abdul Rashid; Maulana Gohar Islam, Qari
Abdul Ghaffar Tauheedi, Qari Muhmmad Yaqoob, Maulvi Baz Khan, Maulana Abdul
Rahman Usmani, Maulana Ikhlaq Ahamd and Qari Saeed Ahmad. (Note: the names are important for those analysts who track the
religious opinion formers in
The Ulema were of the view that suicide attack was a big sin, since Islam never
promotes terrorism and forbids its believers from indulging in such inhuman
activities. They were of the view that the people involved in such heinous
crimes against humanity have nothing to do with Islam. It was also decided that students in the Madaris (the actual plural
form of Madrassah) should not be allowed
to keep mobile phones with them.
The line in bold face is probably the most important
decision of the leaders. Paksitani religious leaders have denounced suicide
bombings consistently for many years. What they never denounce is the killing of US,
Afghanistan-US: President Obama said 11 July the Taliban in
Based on open source reporting the President was either
misinformed, was misquoted or was just referring to the lightly opposed Marine
operations in
The open source data on fighting in June show it was the most violent month since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, with 787 clashes, as NightWatch has used that term during the past four years. The next highest month was March 2009, which had 782 clashes in the NightWatch sample.
Clashes occurred in 206 of
NATO (and non-NATO members of the International Security Assistance Force) killed and wounded reached 123, the highest monthly total to date. Taliban lost just over 700 killed, wounded and captured for detention. All allied forces lost over 400 killed wounded and kidnapped. The casualty ratio is cause for concern because the Taliban will always win a conflict of attrition.
The Taliban leadership considers a 1.75 loss ratio (7:4) a victory. NATO governments will not stand for losses at the June rate with no apparent sign of improvement in the security situation.
NATO killed in the first 12 days of July are 39, second only
to June 2008 when 45 soldiers were killed.
Most impressive of all is the Taliban exploded 214 roadside bombs,
double any prior monthly total. Explosive supplies must be pouring into
In June, Taliban maintained dominance in the 12 core provinces of the insurgency but increased operations in the other 20, over April and May. Strategypage.com analysts wrote today that no summer offensive has occurred owing to Allied operations. The data says they are grossly misinformed and cheerleading avails nothing.
General Zebari, Iraqi Army Chief of Staff, paid a visit to
Sayyid Al-Sistani to inform him of the latest developments in
The significance is that the spiritual and apparently civil
leadership of the Iraqi Armed Forces is the Shiite Grand Ayatollah in an Najaf.
He is a man of deep spirituality by any measure, but not a Sunni. Any Sunnis in
the armed forces are disenfranchised. Plus, Sistani told their Shiite neighbors
to watch them and report on them!
Iran-China: For the record. Iranian clerics condemned
“It is true that the Chinese government and its people have close economic and
political ties with us and other Islamic countries, but this is no reason for
them to horribly suppress our Muslim brothers and sisters,” said Grand
Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi in a statement to ISNA news agency.
The Khamenei/ Ahmadi-Nejad regime has said nothing critical
of
Somalia- Mogadishu: The Somali government said it has regained
control of central
African Union (AU) peacekeeping forces have been drawn into the
fighting for the first time during their deployment to
What this means is that the Islamist militiamen of al
Shabaab nearly succeeded in taking control of the central government buildings
in
Republic of the
Voter turnout is low because the opposition called for a boycott. As a result, scuffles between voters were few as well.
The main issue is how much violence will accompany the voting because Sassou-Nguesso is certain to win. During this Watch, none has been reported, which would be close to miraculous for Congo (B), if it continues, because of the polarization between the north and the south tribes and the recent history of civil conflict (1997-2002).
Costa Rican President Arias’ attempts to negotiate an end to
the political crisis failed after two days of talks. Zelaya flew to
Feedback note: Thanks to all who provided feedback on the cyber attacks. There is a lot to sort; results to follow this week.
End of NightWatch
for 12 July.