NightWatch

For the Night of 10 July 2009

South Korea: The Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attacks. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said 10 July that the recent cyber attacks on South Korean and U.S. government and private Web sites were launched from 16 different countries and North Korea was not among them, Yonhap reported. The attacks were traced to 86 Internet Protocol addresses in South Korea, the United States, Japan and China, among other countries. The NIS still suspects North Korea or its sympathizers are responsible for the attacks.

The NIS told South Korean legislators that it has specific intelligence that the North Korean military last month – June -- called for cyber attacks against South Korea, the JoongAng Ilbo has learned. One news report said that Kim Chong-un, the son and heir-apparent of Kim Chong-il supposedly ordered the DDOS cyber offensive on the 4th.

Note: if DDOs is the best that a national cyber attack force can do, it appears underwhelming.

On Thursday, 9 July, members of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee attended the closed meeting with senior officials from the NIS. According to multiple committee members who were present at the meeting, the NIS briefed that North Korea ordered a laboratory under the Reconnaissance Bureau (RB) of the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces to "destroy South Korea's puppet communications networks in an instant."

The committee members said the NIS presented specific intelligence, including that the North directed a specific laboratory to develop malignant codes and to operate a unit of hackers. The lab, identified as Research Institute No. 110, is responsible for carrying out cyber “terrorism” in North Korea.

In addition, committee members said the NIS briefed that North Korea has sent agents to Beijing and Shenyang, in China, where they have set up overseas bases for cyber terrorism.

"The spy agency said one Eastern European nation that has been friendly with North Korea has also emerged as an overseas headquarters, and that the South Korean government is trying to work with that European country to share intelligence," said one participant at the meeting.

Comment: DDOS attacks seem to be reasonably easy to execute for skilled hackers. (Feedback is welcome on that assertion, mind.)

Visitors to North Korea repeatedly reported they have never observed a sophisticated knowledge of computers, even in computer demonstration labs. For example, the armed forces are known to rely on bugles, fires and flags for tactical signaling in the field. The North Korean armed forces have no concept of net-centric warfare and no money to finance it, if they did.

North Korea might have a node of computer excellence, but that should be evident in export documents from Japan. Japan is the only country with companies that sell modern computer equipment to North Korea, including that used in nuclear and missile programs.

All old hands know that Japanese companies always have been more significant contributors to North Korean modern electronics, automobiles, and nuclear-related specialty materials than either China or Russia. As usual, North Korea is the enemy Japan loves to hate and vice versa.

So who is responsible for these DDOS attacks? If North Korea launched these attacks, they were the work of idiot savants. The level of technology in the North is not consistent with any skill in this domain. This hypothesis requires much more proof.

Far more likely, sympathizers in South Korea launched the attacks. They are an entirely different category of potential cyber-enemy. South Korean enemies of the US maintain sophisticated computer web sites and display skills well within the technological thresholds of South Korean society. Curiously, they do not appear to be clients or agents of North Korea. They just hate Americans.

NightWatch suspects sympathizers outside North Korea are responsible for the attacks. The targets are those that Koreans outside North Korea and familiar with the US would choose. They are not those that the North’s leaders would appreciate and value, such as the White House web site – as if anything of strategic value were ever posted there! That is a favorite target of juveniles.

One news service reported that Kim Chong-un, the Young General, is responsible for the attacks. That would make the DDOS attacks part of a phony narrative to support the leadership transition, The managers of the leadership transition might very well have leaked this baloney with the expectation that someone would swallow the swill, considering they are all pre-computer troglodytes of Kim Il-sung, President Forever.

The idea that DDOS attacks factor into the North Korean succession process borders on comedy in that it makes a proud people the operational equivalent of a pimply-faced teenager in a basement in New Zealand. But that might sell in North Korea.

If North Korea is responsible for the DDOS attacks, the claim that the Young General is responsible for them is an embarrassing ploy to build the leadership narrative of the youngster from Switzerland, who speaks English and French and has show no affinity for computers or anything except high living at the expense of others.

The idea is to credit the heir-apparent for bringing new technology to the Korean conflict. It is laughable and a disservice to the long-suffering people of North Korea. They deserve better.

North Korea: In an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, Han S. Park, a professor at the University of Georgia, said North Korean officials told him during a recent visit to Pyongyang that Euna Lee and Laura Ling were "doing fine at a guesthouse in Pyongyang." Sacramento's NBC affiliate KCRA quoted Laura Ling as saying, "We broke the law, we are sorry, and we need help. We need our government's help to try and get amnesty because that really is our only hope."

Note: Every detention of Americans has required a public apology as the trigger for the North to demonstrate its “moral superiority and magnanimity” by allowing the “criminals” to go into permanent exile i.e., to be set free long enough to leave the country and never return.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she hopes North Korea will free two jailed American reporters. This is the first time that Clinton has appealed for amnesty for Ms. Ling and Ms. Lee.

She said the two reporters had expressed "great remorse for the incident", adding that "everyone is very sorry that it happened."

The significance of today’s news reports is that the US is making progress in securing the release of the two incredibly naïve female journalists. NightWatch has stayed in a North Korean government guest house. Guest houses are not prisons and are quite comfortable. The official reference to a guest house indicates the two Americans are under house arrest, not at hard labor in a real prison.

The good news is that the two are not being used as pawns in a strategic dispute with the US, despite US press babble. The chances that they will be released have improved now that they have stated their public apology and that it has been broadcast nationwide in the US.

Pakistan: The leader of the Pakistan Taliban militants in Swat District has been wounded critically and is close to death, the BBC reported. The information about the deteriorating condition of Maulana Fazlullah confirms statements from senior government and security officials.

Note: Loss of a leader is at best a temporary setback in a conflict motivated by religion. Such a loss does not result in the destruction of the insurgent force. Often it portends the ascendancy of another leader, potentially more powerful, virulent and charismatic than the predecessor, and acting in his name. Any lull is short-lived at best.

Afghanistan-UK: Update. Britain said on Friday eight soldiers had been killed in Afghanistan, its worst death toll in a 24-hour period. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said troops faced a "very hard summer" battling insurgents. Five troops on foot patrol were killed by two blasts, the highest death toll in a single attack.

Britain has now lost 184 soldiers in Afghanistan since it joined the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, more than the 179 deaths during its campaign in Iraq that began in 2003.

Most newspapers led their early Saturday editions with reports of the losses, with the right-leaning Daily Mail urging Brown to "back our troops -- or pull them out…. We cannot go on as we are, watching the bravest and best of their generation dying at the rate of more than one a day ... for an ill-defined cause and with inadequate backup," it said.

The NightWatch view is that the Coalition does not have the solution for fighting the Taliban. Government forces and their allies are still trying to do too much with brainpower. Everyone is trying hard with limited resources, but they are over-thinking the security problem and mixing it with other stuff – humanitarian concerns -- that only works after security is established.

The history of successful counter-insurgency is clear that you cannot do all the touchy feely stuff at the same time as fighting the insurgents. Coalition wiz kids keep trying to find short cuts to a winning solution. They do no exist. The body bags are the ultimate proof.

Solve the security problem and everything else will follow … as long as the US/NATO forces remain in place longer than a few months.

One starting point for success is an accurate and detailed order of battle of the Taliban and anti-government Pashtun tribes, which apparently does not exist after eight years. Forces of order cannot be scaled without an enemy order of battle, district by district, province by province. Is it worth repeating that pre-modern warfare -- counter-insurgency -- is manpower intensive and requires air support every time the ground forces are outnumbered in a fire-fight?

Kyrgystan: The government granted Russia permission to open a military base in the city of Osh, located in southern Kyrgyzstan, making it the second Russian base in the country, Aaj TV reported 10 July. The base will operate under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Russia will also take control of several Kyrgyz defense-industry sites in exchange for a $2 billion loan package.

This is payback for the Kyrgyz government’s decision to permit US access to Manas. The US gets what it wants, sort of, but the Russians get a significant extension of Russian access and presence. Readers should hope that the US taxpayers are not paying for US and increased Russian use of Kyrgyz bases.

Russia-US: Update. President Medvedev warned the United States on 10 July that if it did not reach agreement with Russia on plans for ballistic missile defense systems, Moscow would deploy short-range missiles in Kaliningrad, Reuters reported. Medvedev added that what he said during his state of the nation address "has not been revoked."

Israel-Gaza Strip: For the record. Hamas' military council voted this week to renew attacks from Gaza, and the attacks would escalate, depending on how Israel reacts, Israel Nation reported, citing a 10 July report in Maariv. Initially, the plan is to attack Israeli forces operating along the Gaza security fence, and then escalate to rocket attacks, carried out by independent terrorist groups to relieve Hamas of the responsibility.

The result of this “vote” looks more suicidal than usual for Hamas, Once again, Hamas' leaders show they cannot abide and are irrelevant to conditions in which no attacks occur. They are inept at government under conditions of peace. Expect violent attacks to increase.

Mali: Update. Dozens of Malian troops left Timbuktu on Friday to hunt militants from Al-Qaida's North Africa branch after recent deadly clashes and a British hostage's execution, a military source said.

The deployment also follows President Amadou Toumani Toure's announcement of "a total struggle" against the Al-Qaida affiliate, Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb.

"Our troops are going into the big desert for military operations -- meaning to track arms and drugs traffickers, but also Al-Qaida elements," a local military official said on condition of anonymity. According to the Army, dozens of people were killed on 4 July in the northwest in the deadliest clashes yet reported between Mali soldiers and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb.

With strong western backing, Mali, surprisingly, is taking a strong stance against al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb.

Honduras: A brilliant and diligent Reader in situ provided the following update.

“Deposed president “Mel” Zelaya and de-facto President Roberto Micheletti both met separately with Costa Rican President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias yesterday. Each of the two men assumed adamant, inflexible postures which will make negotiation of the impasse difficult to overcome.

Micheletti arrived in the morning and returned to Tegucigalpa in the afternoon after three hours of talks with Arias. Zelaya met with Arias in the morning and then departed during the evening of 9 July, reportedly to meet with President Colom of Guatemala. Zelaya is expected to continue on to the Domincan Republic in the Venezuelan aircraft that has been at his disposal since he was deposed. He has been accompanied by diplomats from nations of Venezuelan President Chavez’ ALBA alliance.

Each party left a commission to continue talks in their absence. The Honduran commission departed today after talks produced no progress

- According to the Associated Press, a Gallup Poll suggests that 41% of Hondurans support the change in government while 28% oppose it.

- On Wednesday, 8 July, Cardinal Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga said he “rejects the interference of Hugo Chavez.” The Honduran Council of Catholic Bishops has supported the change in government.

Note: The phenomenology suggests Zelaya has no chance of returning to Tegucigalpa as the leader of the government. His electoral prospects in November also look poor. He was voted two terms as president to make a difference and failed.

Administrative note: NightWatch Readers are a brilliant and amazingly supportive group. Thank you all for being there and special thanks to all who sent notes for best wishes and with cold remedies in the past day. They included at least six sure-fire cold remedies, all of which work! Your notes are humbling and encouraging, as always.

End of NightWatch for 10 July.