NightWatch

For the Night of 5 July 2009

North Korea: The North celebrated US Independence Day by launching seven ballistic missiles from the east coast field site at Kittaeryong. South Korean authorities said five were SCUD short range ballistic missiles, but two others might have been No Dong medium range ballistic missiles.

The launches also violate UN Security Council resolutions banning missile launches. Thus they are not surprise but they are acts of defiance.

International press experts commented that the tactical significance of the SCUD launches is that they all landed in the Sea of Japan close to each other signifying improved accuracy. (The missile system is 60 years old as a Soviet system. North Korea has had Scuds for about 30 years. Presumably even the North Korean engineers have worked out any bugs in their versions of the system.) One news outlet described them as a “salvo.”

The North has not demonstrated the capability to fire multiple missiles nearly simultaneously, i.e., in a salvo. That is not as easy as it might seem. For example, an analysis of China’s short range ballistic missile threat to Taiwan found that an effective ballistic missile attack would require 100 missiles with conventional explosive warheads to be fired in at least 8 to 10 salvos.

That means the missile firing units would need to coordinate preparations for 100 simultaneous launches and 9 reloads. Further, to achieve that amount of simultaneous fire power would require networked communications and electronics coordination by about 5 launch brigades.

If North Korea has developed a salvo capability, it is an important launch capability, but it appears to be developing slowly and remains in its infancy, compared to China. On the other hand, a single salvo with five nuclear warheads probably is adequate for starting a war. No reloads required.

Northern Limit Line (NLL). Two North Korean fishing boats violated the NLL and returned north about four hours after they crossed into South Korean waters Sunday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The two North Korean boats appeared to have crossed into South Korean waters because a dense fog caused them to drift off course, officials said.

This is a reminder that the west coast region near the South Korean-held offshore islands has been benign thus far, despite North Korean threats earlier this year.

Philippines: Suspected Muslim guerrillas detonated a bomb near a Roman Catholic cathedral in the Mindanao town of Cotabato City on Sunday, killing at least five people and wounding 46. Pope Benedict XVI condemned the attack.

The bomb exploded outside the Immaculate Conception Cathedral as churchgoers were attending Mass. Two people were killed instantly in the attack and three others, including a militiaman, later died in hospitals, military officials said.

Cotabato was one of the main centers of Islamic culture in Mindanao 110 years ago. The presence of a major Christian church measures the Moros’ century long losing battle to prevent genocide. The bombing is an act of defiance that has little political significance, except as a trigger for another harsh Christian Philippine crackdown on the Moros.

Israel-US-Iran: The head of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, has informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Saudi Arabia would permit Israel to use Saudi airspace in an attack on Iranian nuclear sites, The Times reported 5 July, citing an unnamed diplomatic source.

The Times reported Mossad director Meir Dagan held talks with Saudi officials earlier in the year to discuss a possible strike. Both the Israeli prime minister's office and the Saudis have denied the report.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said in a televised interview that the United States would not stop an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites if the country chooses to take military action, Haaretz reported 5 July. Biden said Israel has the right to choose its own course of action on Iran or any other issue, regardless of what policy the Obama administration chooses to pursue.

The Vice President’s comments do not betray an appreciation that Israel prefers the US to undertake an attack. Alternatively, the Vice President does understand Israel’s efforts to maneuver the US into backing an Israeli strike and has called Israel’s bluff.

One reading of the Vice President’s comment is that the US will not try to talk Israel out of an attack. The more important reading is that Israel is on its own in such an attack and cannot count on US assistance.

The press is on both sides of this issue and the Vice President has not clarified what he actually intended to say.

Somalia: Islamists determined to convert Somalia into an international haven for Al Qaida are using pirate gangs to offer foreign militants safe passage into the country, The Sunday Telegraph reported today. The Taliban-style al-Shabaab militant group, which already controls much of southern Somalia, has enlisted the pirates' in smuggling al-Qaida fighters from other regions of the Middle East, according to Somali government ministers. They claim that up to 1,000 have arrived in recent months, swelling the ranks of the Shabaab in its bid to topple the fragile US-backed administration in Mogadishu.

The significance of the report is that it provides one explanation for the presence of Somali pirate craft operating near Yemen and close to the Persian Gulf. International press has reported the wider range of Somali pirate ships, but has attributed the more distant operations to the effectiveness of the international anti-piracy patrols. This new report links the extended Somali pirate ship voyages to transportation of al Qaida fighters … a much more serious development, probably equally as profitable as piracy ... and much safer.

Mali: Update. On 4 July Timbuktu Region in northern Mali was the scene of fresh clashes between the Malian Army and radical Islamists of the Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). No death toll was reported. On 17 June, the first attack was launched against a Salafist base which left at least 26 Salafists dead.

In Bamako, a Western diplomat said he was convinced that the Malian army is decided on doing battle with the rebels. Estimated at a few hundred, the rebels are composed of a core of Algerian and Mauritanian nationals.

Honduras: Update. International media reported an aircraft carrying ousted president Zelaya attempted to land at Tegucigalpa during the evening of 5 July, but soldiers blocked the runway; the airport denied it landing rights and the aircraft turned away, to El Salvador according to the Wall Street Journal.

Canada: The Canadian Press reported today, “It’s been nine months since the first explosion targeting EnCana's (TSX:ECA) natural gas operations in northeastern British Columbia. - the start of six attacks the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are now labeling "domestic terrorism."

RCMP are asking for patience as they investigate the two latest explosions in the Dawson Creek area. The bomber apparently is still at large. Investigators have made no progress reports in months.

A blast on Canada Day at a wellhead near the village of Pouce Coupe marked the first attack since January, and crews working to repair that site heard yet another explosion Saturday on a nearby pipeline.

RCMP no doubt will capture the bomber. Nevertheless, the official Canadian admission that Canada has domestic terrorists is worth a mention. Liberal neutrality is no safeguard from terrorist attacks.

End of NightWatch for 5 July.