NightWatch

For the Night of 2 July 2009

North Korea-South Korea: As expected the Kaesong talks made no progress. The joint industrial park is shut down. The contracts remain suspended. The South Korean worker remains in detention in North Korea. South Korean firms refuse to pay the wages and rent the North demands.

North Korea: Update. The Russian news service Itar-Tass and Bernama reported North Korea launched two short range missiles off the east coast into the Sea of Japan this morning. Other news services reported up to four missiles were launched, but they appear to have exaggerated the event.

Burma: According to a former head of Burmese intelligence the Burmese military Junta is working with North Korea to develop a nuclear program, according to the Democratic Voice of Burma, based in Oslo. The North Koreans are building many tunnels under a Memo of Understanding signed during General Thura Shwe Mann's visit to Pyongyang in November 2008. According to the news service, the North agreed to build two nuclear facilities -- one in Magwe Division's Myaing Township and another in the ravines outside of Maymyo between Maymyo and Nawnghkio.

When Than Shwe assumed power in 1992, he said that the military must be expanded; secondly it must be a modern defense services; and his ultimate goal is to own nuclear warheads.

If the press report is accurate, India has a new problem on its eastern border, as does Thailand, Bangladesh and all of Southeast Asia. Despite earlier North Korean leadership promises that the North would never proliferate nuclear technology, they appear to have lied.

Afghanistan: A U.S. military representative said Taliban militants captured an American soldier in eastern Afghanistan and the military is actively working to find him, The Associated Press reported July 2. The soldier has been missing since 30 June. Some Afghan soldiers also were captured with the US soldier.

Comment. During the Soviet occupation, captured Soviet soldiers were traded for captured mujahedin. If the barter arrangement failed, the captured Soviet soldiers were tortured before dying. The Russian veterans of Afghanistan will vouch for the wisdom of Kipling’s verse in The Young British Soldier. Any captured alive, especially by Hekmatyar, were tortured. He or his men flayed some of them alive, mostly for sport.

“When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains

And the women come out to cut up what remains,

Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains

An’ go to your Gawd like a soldjer.”

The 20^th century update to the poem is that the Afghan men do the work of the Afghan women in cutting up captives.

The miracle of Iraq is that the insurgents never formulated a program of kidnapping US soldiers for torture or ransom, as did the North Vietnamese. Afghanistan has a different tradition. The capture of a US soldier is a dangerous development, when the force ratios continue to favor the Taliban.

Afghanistan-US: For the record. McClatchy news was among the first to detect an unannounced change in strategy. National Security Advisor Jones told US Marines in Helmand Province that no more soldiers or Marines are to be sent to Afghanistan. Meanwhile CJCS Admiral Mullen, apparently not on distribution for the new memo, continued to insist that more soldiers were on the way.

The Indians, Sri Lankans and Pakistanis are showing that operational advantage in an insurgency is primarily a matter of force ratios. Even with the additional Marines in Helmand, the forces loyal to Kabul who live in the villages are too few, inadequately supported under attack and not reliable for holding ground against the Taliban, after the mobile combat forces depart.

Through most of the past six years, US technology kept the US in the fight, not US ground forces. In 2008, the Taliban showed they are mainly afraid of US air power but are capable of overrunning US counterinsurgency outposts.

Air power can keep the US in the fight but cannot hold ground. For that, the Allies need 100,000 more combat forces. That number results in force ratios that produce durable security so that the other stuff has a chance – economic improvement projects, humanitarian aid, and most confusing, “good governance.” In Afghanistan?

If the unannounced changed policy is that no more troops are en route, then the Kabul government will fall to the Pashtuns … it is only a matter of time. Tajiks and Uzbeks will not fight to control Kabul… never have. They always fall back north to defend tribal homelands.

Pashtuns will fight for Kabul, but with the goal of turning it over to Mullah Omar, as they did in 1996! It’s time for some critical thinking. The policy looks in disarray, if the press accounts are accurate. Karzai would be well advised to see to his escape route more than to his re-election prospects.

Somalia anti-piracy patrol: Bernama reported yesterday that an Arab Anti-Piracy Taskforce has been approved, with the aim of helping international forces in the region tackle the surge in pirate attacks off Somalia, according to Yemeni news agency Saba.

During a Riyadh meeting of marine forces leaders and Foreign Ministries' experts from the Arabian Gulf States and other countries overlooking the Red Sea, the countries agreed to form an anti-piracy force that will work for a year to secure waterways and protect ships and vessels passing in the region.

The mission will include troops from the six Gulf States, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Sudan and Djibouti. According to the communiqué at the end of the meeting, every concerned state is tasked to determine the size of forces it assigns for the mission as well as the nature of very force's duties.

This is the first initiative by Arab states to assist the anti-piracy patrol which involves about 30 warships from 16 non-Arab states. This is tonight’s good news, assuming the Arabs actually keep their promises.

Honduras: ex-President Zelaya did not return to Honduras today, as he threatened. The latest information is that he will not attempt to return until after the expiration of the ultimatum for the Honduran government to permit him to return.

Comment: This creates an interesting dilemma for US policy: support an ousted anti-US leader or abet a regional war against leaders who are pro-US but overthrew the anti-US president. The argument from most feedback reports is the Hondurans did it the right thing but did it the wrong way – which is an argument that form is superior to substance. Curious logic, but common in bureaucracies because it helps them dodge substantive problems while beating up the bearer of bad news.

The Armed Forces’ position. The Armed Forces reiterated yesterday that their participation in the coup d'etat was limited to the enforcement of a judicial order issued by a qualified court; and they added that in no way did they supplant the state's powers, according to a communiqué from the military.

The communiqué states "that the Court of Administrative Disputes judge's legal resolution ordered the Armed Forces to immediately confiscate all the necessary documents and materials dealing with the poll that the Executive Branch intended to hold," the communiqué points out.

"The house raid and subsequent arrest of former President Jose Manuel Zelaya Rosales was carried out in abidance by an arrest warrant issued by a judge who was unanimously nominated by all the Supreme Court of Justice members based on the request submitted by the Attorney General's Office, because he was considered guilty of having committed criminal actions," it adds. The Armed Forces also state that the operation was carried out with a strict abidance by the Constitution and laws, particularly concerning human rights

Latin America’s history of military overthrows in defiance of the rule of law appears to cloud critical thinking about what happened in Tegucigalpa. This topic has generated the strongest and most emotional feedback of any in the four years of NightWatch.

Colombia: The United States and Colombia are progressing on a deal to transfer U.S. military operations formerly headquartered at Manta Air Base in Ecuador to five locations belonging to the Colombian air force and navy, Colombian magazine Cambio reported 2 July. The sites under consideration include the air bases at Palanquero, Alberto Pouwels de Malambo and Apiay, as well as naval bases in Malaga and Cartagena.

Colombian leaders have a good sense for dealing with an ally, taking advantage of the ideological myopia of their neighbors. A Colombian ally who relies on Colombia’s bases is also called a hostage. The South Koreans have long known this.

End of NightWatch for 2 July.