NightWatch

For the Night of 1 July 2009

Fiji: For the record. Government leader Commodore Frank Bainimarama announced his plan for restoring democracy. A new constitution will be written by 2013 and general elections will be held in 2014. This is a study in democracy.

North Korea-South Korea: A South Korean delegation traveled to North Korea on Thursday (2 July) for a third round of talks over the Kaesong joint industrial park. The talks are set to start at the park at 10 a.m. [(0100 GMT), during this Watch.

No progress is expected but talks are likely to continue. Today North Korea invited South Korea to a meeting of non-governmental organizations in Beijing, apparently to discuss humanitarian needs. The UN announced a food crisis is emerging in North Korea because of a shortfall of 840,000 of foreign grain.

This is the third crisis in North Korea announced by the UN in 18 months. The last two, which were based on shortages of aid donations because of donor fatigue, proved exaggerated, according to the low to moderate prices for a basket of food in Pyongyang and posted by NK Today, the website run by defectors.

The UN estimate of food grain production by North Korea this year exceeds 5 million metric tons. That is more than enough to meet the needs of the 23 million people and their animals. Under Kim Il-sung when the population also was 23 million, full demand was estimated at 6 million tons. Industrial uses for agricultural products suffer when the shortage falls between 5 and 6 million metric tons, not food for people or fodder.

Declaration of a food emergency based on donation shortages that do not take appropriate account of production increases seems self-serving. The North’s national ideology is self-reliance. More than 5 million metric tons of food grain harvest is close, provided the summer rainy season is benign and the actual harvest meets that estimate.

Provocation watch. North Korea issued new navigation closures for sites on both coasts, the Japan Coast Guard said today (1 July). According to the coast guard, which was informed of the bans by the North Korean government via e-mail, the latest closures cover seven sites along the coast of the Sea of Japan and three sites on the Yellow Sea coast.

It is not clear whether these closures are related to pending missile launches, but the timing suggests that as a possibility. The window for provocative missile launches will remain open through 10 July.

India-Jammu and Kashmir State: Federal authorities ordered the unprecedented withdrawal from Baramulla town of the paramilitary, federal Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) today because of demonstrations following the shooting death of a Muslim youth. State authorities replaced CRPF with Jammu and Kashmir armed police to quiet unrest and prevent more shootings in the far northern town, Agence France-Presse and the Mumbai Times reported. The death toll from demonstrations is now four.

Nevertheless, thousands of anti-India protesters marched in Baramulla chanting "blood for blood" and "we want freedom." In the nearby village of Palhalan, protesters set fire to an army ambulance and broke windows of military vehicles in a passing convoy. Protestors also marched in Srinagar, the capital of Kashmir.

Baramulla is one of several centers of Kashmiri militant activity, which explains its tendency towards political volatility. The CRPF is one of the backbone law enforcement agencies in India. The willingness of the federal authorities to withdraw CRPF units from Baramulla is a positive sign of the administration’s confidence the security situation will remain under control by state authorities. That is an unusual position for New Delhi to take and, tentatively, a positive sign for stability in Indian Kashmir.

Israel-Palestinian Authority: Feedback from a brilliant and perceptive Reader pointed out new polling data sources about Palestinian attitudes from two respected.

A poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media & Communications Center (JMCC) in June 2009 found that, concerning the level of Palestinian support to the Palestinian political factions, Fatah’s popularity rose to 34.9% in June, from 26% in the same poll in January 2009.

Hamas’ popularity suffered a setback in the same period. Support declined from 27.7% in January to 18.8% in June. 30.4% of Palestinians polled said they don’t support any Palestinian faction.

The poll found that the popularity of the leader of the discharged government in Gaza, Ismail Hanieh, also fell, from 21.1% in January 2009 to 14.8% in June 2009. In the same period, the popularity of President Abbas moved up from 13.4% in January 2009 to 17.8% in June 2009 – not a lot but more than the margin of polling error. 32.9% of Palestinians polled said they trust no Palestinian figure or leader.

The second poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 21 and 23 May 2009. It showed a trend similar to the findings by the JMCC.

Regarding personal and family safety, 55% percent of Palestinians polled said they are worried that they or members of their families might be harmed by other Palestinians; 44% are not worried.

Concerning elections, 46% support a mixed electoral system as proposed by Hamas and 39% support a fully proportional system as proposed by Fateh (Fatah); but 50% supported Fateh’s position that the program of national unity government must accept all previous agreements signed between Israel and the PLO, while 44% support Hamas’ position which rejects this condition. (This is a highly significant figure, especially if Fatah’s lead on this issue endures.)

If new presidential elections are held today, President and Fatah leader Abbas would receive 49% of the vote and Haniyeh 44%, and if the competition were between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 64% and the latter 32%. Fateh would receive the support of 41% of potential voters, Hamas 33%, all other electoral lists 9%, and 18% remain undecided; public estimates of the likely outcome of elections are similar with 39% saying Fateh would win and 28% saying Hamas would.

The polls show that Palestinians appear to be growing weary of Hamas -- of constant confrontation and perpetual violence. Fatah’s lead is not large, but it has grown in just six months. That is tonight’s good news.

Egypt: The military is considering the purchase of the Russian-made, advanced S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, the Jerusalem Post reported 1 July. The S-300 is effective against aircraft and reportedly can track up to 100 targets at the same time; the S-400, a more advanced model, is effective against aircraft and long-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

No additional details are available, but it would be consistent with the surge in Russian arms marketing in most Middle Eastern countries. The Russians seem to have the marketing edge in air defense systems, including anti-ballistic and anti-cruise missile systems.

Somalia: Update. Local news outlets reported heavy fighting, including artillery/mortar fire, occurred in parts of Kaaraan City of Banaadir Region of greater Mogadishu. The fighting involves the government soldiers and the opposition groups, Al-Shabab and Hisb al-Islam.

Czech Republic: For the record. Prime Minister Jan Fischer yesterday took stock of the Czech presidency of the European Union, which ends today.  He concluded that, following the fall of the Mirek Topolanek government, quality Czech state bureaucrats prevented a disgrace.

"In spite of the political change, in spite of the political problems that the country has been through, the people worked and devoted all their energy to their work as they had before the fall of the Topolanek cabinet.  This is what a qualified, loyal state official should be like," said the caretaker prime minister.

He added that the performance of Czech officials should not be forgotten in the future.  Ministries have begun negotiating with a majority of officials who were hired only for the six months, offering them permanent posts. According to Fischer, the Czech Republic is handing the presidency tasks to Sweden without having to be ashamed of unfulfilled tasks.

Most analysts assessed the Czechs would be unable to complete their six month rotation as EU president because of the fall of the Topolanek government in late May.

Honduras: Ousted President Manuel Zelaya will not return to Honduras on 2 July as was originally planned, La Prensa reported July 1. Zelaya said he still intends to return, but did not give a specific date, saying he would do so sometime during the weekend of 4-5 July.

Venezuela’s Chavez has threatened the use of military force by his Bolivarian Alliance to restore Zelaya. That is not likely, but the other members have not disavowed the threat. Nothing would please Chavez more than to lead an alliance in a shooting engagement, it seems.

End of NightWatch for 1 July.