NightWatch

For the Night of 30 June 2009

Japan: Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said 30 June it will rotate the Maritime Self Defense Force’s two destroyers engaged in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia since March, Agence France Presse reported. The two replacement destroyers will set sail 6 July and will have expanded rules of engagement, approved by parliament this month that empowers them to use force in coming to the aid of non-Japanese merchant ships under attack by pirates.

Japan-North Korea: Sanctions enforcement. Police in Kanagawa on 29 June arrested three people from a company that allegedly work with North Korea in attempting to export to Burma (Myanmar) a magnetic measuring device, used in developing long-range ballistic missiles, Yomiuri Shimbun reported 30 June. Police suspect the firm has exported other missile development-related equipment to Burma and that it is under the control of the Second Economic Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea.

The Second Economic Committee is the entity that oversees and guides all military industries in North Korea. The First Economic Committee controls production for civilian customers.

This is the first Japanese action to stop North Korean weapons proliferation since passage on 12 June of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 which tightened the non-proliferation regime against North Korea in reaction to the 25 May nuclear test.

Burma keeps reappearing as the primary target of North Korean proliferation at this time.

North Korea: The MV Kang Nam 1 is heading back to North Korea, according to a report by The Associated Press which quoted US officials. The ship left Nampo on 17 June and is the first arms carrying ship monitored under U.N. sanctions that ban the North from exporting arms and nuclear-related material.

The US Navy has been following Kang Nam 1 since the 17^th. After sailing south and southwest for more than a week; on Sunday it turned about in the South China Sea and headed north, two US officials said on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence. It never reached Singapore, much less Burma.

Feedback: One brilliant and well informed Reader assessed that the North blinked, meaning it considered the likelihood of losing the cargo was too great to risk at this time. An alternative explanation is the ship carried no arms cargo but was a test of the new sanctions regime, which North Korean leaders found effective. The two explanations are not mutually exclusive.

The leaders in the North now know the nuclear test has changed international tolerance for bad behavior by North Korea, at least with respect to proliferation. Only Russia was moderately sympathetic to the North …and crassly opportunistic at the expense of other powers with more at stake.

The Chinese apparently have upbraided the Russians on this issue because Russia lately has become a lot less sympathetic than it was in early June. China apparently is determined to be the only nuclear weapons power in Northeast Asia. That is good news for non-proliferation.

Uranium enrichment. North Korea is proceeding with plans to enrich uranium, a possible step to making a nuclear weapon, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said. "It is clear that they are moving forward," Mr Lee said on Tuesday, 30 June. Lee provided no additional details to support his assertion.

North Korea said earlier in June it would "weaponize" its plutonium stocks and start enriching uranium for a light-water nuclear reactor. The North's threat came after the UN passed tougher sanctions in response to Pyongyang's nuclear test in May.

North Korea-US: The US Treasury Department today took action to freeze the assets of the Hong Kong Electronics, a company located in Kish Island, Iran, because it assists North Korean proliferation. The action means that any bank accounts or other financial assets found in the United States belonging to the company must be frozen. Americans also are prohibited from doing business with the firm.

Comment: US economic warfare weapons are the finest in the world, but are used far too infrequently. They produce faster and more devastating results than combat. NW observed first hand the effects of unilateral US sanctions on Vietnam between 1975 and 1992. Hanoi was a city locked in its colonial past whose main means of transportation in 1992 was bicycles.

US economic sanctions created a time warp in which northern Vietnam was consigned to grinding poverty for a generation and from which it could not emerge without the consent and cooperation of the US.

A well-conceived and skillfully executed economic containment program against North Korea could bring down the Kim regime in six months -- could have done so at any time since 1995. Such a program would also hobble the Chinese for half a generation.

A mature US political leadership in a maturing global economy ought to try to think outside the conventional military box for ways to keep the peace in northeast Asia. Treasury Department has the tools and a growing body of experience, but elected leaders must provide the will. Marx was right about the relationship of economics and national security affairs, for the purposes of prediction. He understood nothing about government.

Thailand: For the record. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said 30 June that he would invoke an internal security act to prevent protests at the upcoming summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to be held 10-24 July, Agence France-Presse reported. The security act will cover the island of Phuket -- the location of the summit -- and allows the military to assist the police in maintaining order.

Supporters of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin forced the government to cancel the ASEAN summit in Thailand in April. Abhisit will not allow a repeat of that performance.

India-Jammu and Kashmir State-Pakistan: A three-day strike across Kashmir called by the separatist Hurriyat leader, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, closed markets, schools, banks, courts and other institutions, Zee News reported 30 June. Meanwhile, authorities imposed a curfew in Barmulla, and security forces are patrolling the streets.

The typical ritual is that a pro-independence Kashmiri protestor will risk his life by insulting the police and defying orders to disperse. The Indian police or paramilitary police will shoot the protestor. The protestor becomes a martyr which leads to an escalation of street demonstrations, not in support of the protestor’s cause but in protest of police brutality. And so escalation leads to commercial strikes, the government suspends personal freedoms.

Normality usually recycles because people need daily necessities.

In watching this action-reaction cycle, for almost 40 years, NW remains persuaded that outside agents provocateurs always start this cycle. In Kashmir, that means two agencies are at work: Kashmiri terrorists based in Pakistan and Pakistani intelligence officers who assist the terrorists.

The significance of this news item is that it is the latest manifestation of a surge in stress in Indian Kashmir. Outside agents are attempting to create tension between India and Pakistan by stoking terrorism in Kashmir that might alleviate Pakistani military pressure in the tribal areas in western Pakistan.

Critical thinkers should be questioning what is the relationship between Kashmir and Waziristan and the restive areas of western Pakistan? Militants train at each others’ camps on both borders and groups in opposite parts of the country are supported and manipulated by Pakistani intelligence elements so as to support Pakistan’s national security interests.

When al Qaida members and their families fled Afghanistan in 2001, there were credible reports that some sought refuge in Pakistani-run militant camps in Kashmir. Nothing indicates that relationship ever terminated. The distance from Swat Valley to Muzaffarabad in Pakistani Kashmir is not far. In many respects, the groups are parts of a unitary living system to preserve Pakistan, but they appear separate and unrelated in media descriptions.

Pakistan: The BBC reported that Pakistani officials have received a report, supposedly an intelligence report, that three banned groups - Harkatul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba - are active in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani Kashmir. Harkatul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammad are said to be planning to open madrassas, or Islamic schools, in the city where Lashkar-e-Taiba is already operating a madrassa.

"No officials are allowed to enter these premises to gather any sort of information," the report says.

"We fear these madrassas maybe a cover for furthering militant activities."

The significance is that this development targets Indian Kashmir and diverts attention from Pakistani security problems in the tribal agencies. An unidentified Pakistani intelligence service ostensibly is the source of this report about a growing threat to India. Odd, what.

Buner. Update. Security forces today (30 June) began a new offensive against militants in Buner District's Chaghorzai division, Dawn News reported. Intense artillery fire reportedly has forced many civilians to leave their homes in Riyal, Budal, Ghazi Banda and Sar Qila. Militants have been patrolling the area from Kalpani to Topai in Chaghorzai, Dawn reported, citing a local witness.

Dawn published this report several hours after a government spokesman declared operations in Buner to be complete.

Iraq: NW Comment. US military officials deserve credit for their aggressive explanation of the US withdrawal from the main Iraqi cities. In their explanations about the nature of the remaining enemy, most cited al Qaida remnants and remnants of Saddam’s supporters.

This is the traditional mantra – al Qaida and Ba’ath Party dead enders are the enemy. It omits that 100,000 Sunni Arab fighters who openly admitted killing Americans were on the US payroll for two years in return for not killing Americans and who had nothing to do with either al Qaida or Saddamist dead enders. It also ignores that al Qaida never accounted from more than 5% of all attacks at any time ever, according to Central Command briefings.

A US general today also told the press that Iran is still providing arms to Shiites in Iraq. Iran is doing a lot more than that. It is the shadow government in about nine Shiite provinces and has been for six years.

That is not the issue here. Iranian leaders reasonably should perceive an interest in stepping uplow-level violence and harassment actions to ensure that the consolidation of US combat troops outside the cities is not a subterfuge for attack preparations against Iran. That would be a reasonable concern for Ahmadi-Nejad and ali Khamenei. Iran needs a security buffer – not territory, but violence that ties down US forces in and around their consolidation bases.

The violence in Iraq and Afghanistan has served to reassure the Ayatollahs that the US was not able to attack Iran from Iraq and Afghanistan without destructive consequences in both. Iran retains that leverage.

The withdrawal of US combat forces from Iraqi cities removes one component of that surety, however. The struggle for who rules Iraq is just beginning. As always, it is a key component in Iran’s national security strategy.

Thus the general is well advised to point out that Iran continues to supply weapons and ammunition to Shiite proxies in Iraq. What’s more, those supplies are likely to increase through the summer. Shiite instigated violence and harassment also are likely to increase, so as to protect Iran’s security interests.

Israel: For the record. Israeli forces boarded a ship trying to carry aid and pro-Palestinian activists to the Gaza Strip in defiance of Israel's blockade of the territory. The 20 passengers include former US congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and Nobel Prize winner Mairead Maguire. The activists also include some Britons, campaigners said.

Ms McKinney described it as "an outrageous violation of international law", as the boat was on a humanitarian mission and was not in Israeli waters. The Israeli military said the boat was trying to enter Gaza illegally.

The US-based Free Gaza Movement has breached the blockade five times since August 2008.

Two other attempts by the activist group were stopped by Israeli warships during Israel's three-week military offensive in Gaza in December and January.

Somalia- al Shabaab region: Somali Islamist militant group al Shabaab leader Abdiqani Mohamed Yusuf said 30 June that it is time for the people of Somalia to attack Ethiopia, Reuters reported. During a radio broadcast, Yusuf said Somalis must invade the Ethiopians' country because they have invaded Somalia. He added, "The people should be ready to take part in jihad."

Black Swan: An Islamic emirate that possesses nuclear weapons and delivery systems: Somalia ten years hence is a candidate.

Niger: The BBC reported today that “ President Mamadou Tandja's bid to cling to power went a step further after he scrapped Niger's constitutional court about a month after he dissolved a parliament that had challenged him. Tandja, a 71-year-old retired army colonel whose legal tenure expires in December, is fighting to retain the presidency through a controversial constitutional change, which has met stiff political and legal resistance.

The country's highest court three times ruled against his plans to change the basic law to let him seek a third term five-year in office.”

Question: Does this not look a lot like what is happening in Honduras under Zelaya? The phenomenology is identical, except the security forces of Niger have not acted. This is another coup waiting for a trigger, usually the summary dismissal of the head of armed forces or a defiant trip abroad by the president.

UN-Honduras: The U.N. General Assembly demanded the immediate restoration of Honduras' ousted president on Tuesday. The U.N. vote by acclamation added to the avalanche of international denunciations of the coup that removed Zelaya on Sunday.

The world body called on all 192 U.N. member states to avoid recognizing any government in Honduras other than Zelaya's. Zelaya then thanked the assembly for the "historic" resolution that expresses "the indignation" of people worldwide.

Questions: When did the UN ordain that the president of a country is a superior manifestation of the will of the electorate over the Congress of that country elected by the same people? The position of the UN is risible, arbitrary nonsense, as well as unsound in political science.

In Honduras a would-be constitutional usurper was booted, not an elected government! They are all crooks, but the words and titles have significance.

The elected members of the government acted to protect democracy, or their share of organized corruption some would say. Zelaya was no friend of democracy and already defied two Supreme Court orders. His aim was to destroy term limits so he could rule indefinitely.

Intentions always make a difference in assessing liability in countries that abide by rule of law. Zelaya intended to suborn and subvert the constitution. The Congress, Supreme Court and armed forces acted to preserve it. Both were trying to preserve their own parochial interests.

As for faith in the wisdom of elected government, Hamas in Gaza is the product of free and fair elections. Its ascension to power was a major setback to US policy because it remains implacably hostile to US interests and openly determined to destroy Israel. Blind trust in democracy served no US interest in those elections, or in the re-election of Ahmadi-nejad, by a landslide.

The problem with democracy is that voters can vote to terminate it, say for increased food rations, but do not have the luxury of second thoughts. Once gone, democracy is hard to retrieve. NW knows of no cases since WW II in which a democracy that committed electoral suicide by voting for autocratic government or benevolent dictatorship restored itself without violence. The ultimate example is Nazi Germany, which is the poster child for the pitfalls of elected government.

Honduras: Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez Colindres said 30 June that ousted President Manuel Zelaya would have to ask permission "like a common citizen" to return to the country, El Universal reported. Interim President Roberto Micheletti said, in an interview with Colombian radio station Caracol Radio that the Honduran high court has issued an order to arrest Zelaya should he return.

Zelaya, however, said today that Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa will join him when he attempts to return to Honduras on 2 July, Reuters reported. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Organization of American States chief Jose Miguel Insulza also will accompany Zelaya on the trip.

The threatened return of Zelaya is a flashpoint. If the regime remains firm, Zelaya will cancel his return and set up a sympathy tour.

Feedback: NW received an extraordinary quality of feedback and insights about the events in Honduras. Thanks to all, sincerely.

As with any country and culture the drivers and issues are complex and intertwined. For example, one theme is that all the “stake holders” – Congress, the President, the Armed Forces and powerful business interests – are tied to drug running. Control of the drug trade is a major issue in Zelaya’s overthrow, apparently.

There are no good guys for the US; only interests. Zelaya was leading his corrupt cohorts in the direction of Venezuelan-style socialism. His arguably equally corrupt opponents demurred.

The phenomenology of this event, however, is as simple as Nigerien politics. A strong man wanted to stay in power; overestimated his support and lost his gamble. Official US support to restore Zelaya -- a man who openly advocated anti-US causes and socialism – should be hard to justify to the US electorate, one would surmise.

The US prides itself that it is a country based on rule of law and not of men, a timely principle to revisit before the 4^th of July. Zelaya believed in rule of a man who could manipulate the law for his own advantage. The US has not supported Zelaya’s restoration, though it has condemned the coup

Closing question: Would it be so bad were Latin Americans to overthrow duly elected socialist demagogues, just as their fathers and mothers did a generation ago? The will of the people manifests itself in more than one form of election.

End of NightWatch for 30 June.