NightWatch

For the Night of 28 June 2009

Japan-South Korea: South Korea and Japan “will never tolerate” a nuclear-armed North Korea, South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said on Sunday after talks in Tokyo with Prime Minister Taro Aso. Lee and Aso agreed to press North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and called for China to play a greater role in persuading its ally to disarm, they said in a news conference.

“During the talks, we confirmed that we will never tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea,” Lee told reporters. “Through implementing UN resolution 1874, we need to show North Korea that they will gain nothing by obtaining nuclear weapons,” Lee said, referring to UN sanctions against Pyongyang for its recent nuclear and missile tests.

Aso said: “We agreed to strengthen cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the United States, and agreed on the need to deepen cooperation with China.”

It is extraordinary that action by one group of Korean Japan-haters – North Korea-- has prompted a second group of Korean Japan-haters – the South Koreans – to ally with Japan against fellow Koreans. The North Koreans have overplayed their hand.

Iraq: Update. General Ray Odierno told Fox News in an interview broadcast today that U.S. military forces have withdrawn from Iraqi cities ahead of the 30 June deadline. About 130,000 soldiers remain in Iraq, but Odierno said the military has pulled back to allow Iraqi forces to take responsibility for security within their cities.

What is the justification for Odierno mentioning the Iraqi Federal Government, when no such entity exists, officially. Most likely a misstatement, but clearly the enormous difference between a unitary and a federal system of government ought to be impressed on the mind of the commander of the forces who created that government … one would think. The Iraqis understand the difference even if the Americans don’t. They drafted a proposal for a federal government that would create multiple Shiite states in southeastern Iraq. The US has blocked every move to advance that proposal, though the model for it is the Kurdish autonomous region of northern Iraq.

NW Comment: US policy seems adrift, but not for al Maliki. He announced that the occupation of the cities has ended two days ahead of schedule. It is hard to put positive spin on the viciousness of his announcement, considering that 4,300 US deaths and $ billions in treasure spent in Iraq are responsible for al Maliki’s not having died in a Saddam prison.

Maliki’s words ought not to have reached god’s/allah’s ears for their lack of gratitude. To object to his characterization would require moral courage by some senior US person, as US Grant described it. It seems to be in short supply.

Press reporting today suggests US leaders not only do not seem to understand the nature of the government they installed, they do not know when they have been insulted by their own ally. If these media perceptions are inaccurate, someone needs to get working to correct them.

Iran: Former president and Assembly of Experts chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani called for a "fair and thorough" examination of the election results, and praised Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for extending the deadline for the examination, state-run Press TV reported 28 June. Rafsanjani said the decision by Khamenei to extend the deadline was effective in restoring the confidence of the Iranian people in the election process.

Rafsanjani is the latest opposition leader to state his compliance with the directives of the Supreme Leader. Over the weekend, Musavi said he would request a permit before staging demonstrations by his followers.

The politically disenfranchised now have no national leader of stature, at least none known in the West. The unrest will not end, but it must regroup, reorganize and find a leader. Confronted with the prospect of revolutionary change, the old time leaders surrendered rather than lead. They are moral cowards. Their interpretation of fair elections lies completely within Iran’s misogynist, barbaric system of authoritarian rule. In the final analysis, Iran has shown itself to be a would-be Islamic emirate -- not an Islamic republic – and not much different in political style from Egypt. In both the authoritarian leaders are sometimes nettled by the inconvenience of elections.

The Iranians like to pride themselves on the age of their civilization. They like to brag that theirs is older than that of Western Europe. The events of the past three weeks prove that the ancient Persians were more advanced and enlightened than the Islamic goons who now pretend to govern Tehran. This crew has no right to claim descent from the ancient Persians who once liberated the Jews.

Lebanon: The Lebanese Army issued a warning against anyone carrying weapons on the streets, saying it had given orders to fire on any armed person after a clash between political factions killed one person and injured two in western Beirut, Reuters reported 28 June. The clash occurred in the Aicha Bakkar area between Sunni followers of Saad al-Hariri and supporters of Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri. A security official said the gunfight was an isolated incident, and that it was not ordered by the groups' leadership.

Hariri is the new Prime Minister and the Amal Shiite leadership supports his election. It remains unclear who instigated the shooting over what issue.

Mauritania: President Sidi Ould Sheikh Abdallahi handed over power to a transitional government on Saturday under a power-sharing deal with the soldiers who toppled him in August. He announced his resignation just after midnight after a new round of talks with the military rulers brokered by Abdoulaye Wade, Senegal's president, in Nouakchott, the Mauritanian capital.

"I declare that I voluntarily renounce my position as president," Abdallahi said. He said he is "happy to be the first elected president in Mauritania to have consented to give up power to preserve the greater interest".

Mauritania has been ruled by the military since the coup, but Abdallahi maintained that he is the legal president. As part of a new power sharing deal, an interim government will take over from the country's military rulers to organize the vote. Elections are scheduled to take place on July 18.

The Mauritanians are making more progress towards rule of law democracy than the Venezuelans. Still Honduras is the model for today’s study in democracy.

Guinea-Bissau: Voters elected a new President today, four months after soldiers killed President Joao Bernardo Vieira. In a field of eleven, the front-runners were Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling party, and former presidents Henrique Rosa and Kumba Yala. No winner has been announced during this Watch.`

President Vieira was killed in March in apparent revenge for the death of the head of the army in a bomb blast. He had ruled Guinea Bissau for a total of 23 years, from 1980-1999 and from 2005-2009.

About 600,000 of the country's 1.3 million residents were eligible to vote in the polls. A second round of polling could be held if there is no outright winner.

Honduras: After weeks of warning, the armed forces arrested President Zelaya for violating the constitution and refusing to comply with directives of the Supreme Court. The leadership put him on an aircraft for Costa Rica. In a brief radio announcement, the Honduran Supreme Court said it ordered the army to remove the president to “defend the rule of law.” (NW comment: When was the last time we read such a statement?)

A new president was sworn into office only hours after the arrest and deportation of Zelaya. Congress speaker Roberto Micheletti will serve as interim president until polls are held. Micheletti and the electoral court announced that presidential elections will proceed as scheduled on 29 November.

Venezuelan President Chavez announced he would take steps to “defeat” the coup against Zelaya, while the government of Ecuador announced it would not recognize the interim government of Honduras. Cuba condemned the military coup in Honduras as "criminal, brutal." Chile demanded the restoration of democracy in Honduras.

Buildup to a military action to preserve the constitution: The top military leaders acted in the name of the constitution which leftist leader Zelaya was attempting to suborn so as to enable him to run for office a third term. The constitution contains a limit of two terms.

Zelaya planned a referendum today, 28 June, to amend the constitution in the style of the other leftist leaders in the region, such as Chavez. This explains the timing of the military action on early Sunday.

Earlier in the week, Zelaya fired the armed forces commander after he refused to assist in referendum preparations because the Supreme Court ruled them unconstitutional.

Armed forces sources said the uniformed services found themselves caught between their oath to support the constitution and the orders of the commander in chief. These soldiers and airmen chose to serve the constitution. Two other heads of services resigned in protest. The Supreme Court found that the dismissal of the armed forces commander also was unconstitutional and ordered him reinstated. Zelaya denied he had been fired!

The Supreme Court provided an outlet for the military to resolve its cognitive dissonance – deport the President and follow the law.

Honduras-Venezuela: Venezuelan President Chavez said Honduran soldiers took away the Cuban ambassador and left the Venezuelan ambassador on the side of a road after beating him during the coup. The Cuban ambassador was later released.

This is the first reversal of the growing socialist tendency in Latin America in the past few years. The US actually seems to have opposed action by the armed forces to protect rule of law in Honduras. Someone in Washington needs to investigate these rumors. All the socialist countries have denounced the coup. They seem to understand its implications as a precedent for their own survival.

It is a good day for rule of law in Honduras and that is tonight’s good news.

Comment: Tonight’s three stories about elections show that two praetorian coups – Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau – succeeded for a short time, but failed over the mid term because the electorate and interests groups that benefit from democracy refused to support the military elitists who seized power. By some magic, commitment to law triumphed in two of the least likely states.

As for Honduras, today’s coup is a variation of the typical praetorian coup. In Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau, the military leadership protecting the elected President had a gripe; had an armed unit of the armed forces who had vehicles with tires on the wheels and faced no armed opposition and acted. The only other indicator of a praetorian coup was the absence of the president which most often provides the opportunity to seize power extra-constitutionally. In these two instances, the President was either arrested or shot.

Honduras is different. The President had the gripe; the military chose to follow the law. A unit did not take action, but the whole armed forces on the direction of the Supreme Court – an unquestionably legal authority, though not in the executive chain of command. Action to support rule of law over loyalty to the president is rare, even in developed countries.

The Supreme Court is in the constitutional chain of command with respect to legal issues, over the President. This means that with respect to understanding the implications of an oath to uphold the constitution, the Supreme Court’s authority exceeds that of the chief executive. The Honduras Supreme Court seems to have carved out a precedent for a separate channel of authority for committing military force in internal political affairs. That channel is not acknowledged in US law … mainly because it has not been tested.

Together, all three stories represent sparks of political maturity in out of the way places.

Argentina: Parliamentary elections were held on 28 June. Analysts described them as a referendum on the six years of Kirchner administration. During this Watch, no results have been reported, but pro-Kirchner backers are expected to lose control of the House of Representatives.

End of NightWatch for 28 June.