NightWatch

For the Night of 22 June 2009

Palau: Update. Not even the Uighurs want to live in Palau. Their reason is that the island police cannot protect them from the Chinese intelligence service. Palau has relations with Taiwan, but that will not save the Uighurs. Why did Taiwan not take them? Nice place to visit though, as long as you do not stay long.

North Korea: Pyongyang’s tiresome propaganda machine cranked out more warnings that the North’s missiles will strike the United States if a merchant ship is intercepted. More likely the crew will fire their weapons, but even the North’s leaders understand that a weapons cargo for Burma is not worth risking all the accomplishments and energy of 60 years of nation-building -- the utter destruction of Pyongyang. Nothing else much matters if Pyongyang is destroyed.

The North’s scientists have let down the dear leader or the cabal that runs foreign policy these days. They have not produced a missile that can reach the tip of Alaska and Guam. Even those gentlemen would not consider those pin pricks sufficient to deter the US from total annihilation of North Korea. Some in the US might consider the devastation of the North as a useful lesson for other misbehaving leaders.

China: Update. China whined today that the non-communist alliance should not expect China to rein in North Korea. This is the consistent Chinese position even though China remains the essential lifeline of North Korea, from banking to exports.

Expect the Chinese to do nothing to North Korea that interferes with China’s rise as the strategic leader in Asia. Ironically, North Korea continues to act out in such a way that it ensures the strategic dominance of the US-led Alliance for the foreseeable future. Somehow Chinese leaders do not learn that pressure on North Korea to comply is in their strategic interest.

The North Koreans cooperate with no one unless they choose or are compelled. Their soldiers are brave, even ruthless. The people are long suffering, educated and hard working, but the leadership is risk averse – cowardly -- and subverted by luxury at the expense of a malnourished people.

If Kim should order a war and loses, everything his father worked for since 1953 would be destroyed. The result would be the least Confucian outcome imaginable.

The political and military leaders, including Kim, know the North will lose everything in such a fight which explains the NightWatch hypothesis that the North is constantly running a bluff. The situation is preposterous. One of the smallest and poorest countries in the world – even fully armed -- is a trivial opponent to the most powerful country in the history of humanity.

North Korea exists because the Alliance plus China does not want to take responsibility for sustaining the world’s largest refugee camp -- the people of North Korea. This is the stuff of dark comedy because the North’s diplomats have been told that North Korea will not survive a war, but South Korea will. Hence, the bluff hypothesis.

India: The government banned the Maoist group the Communist Party of India (CPI), calling it a terrorist organization, Press Trust of India reported. India's security forces in the central and eastern regions of the country were on high alert for "demonstrative acts of violence” as of 22 June, as Maoist rebels have called for a two-day strike, Agence France-Presse reported. The states of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh were told to be prepared for violence against soldiers, police and "economic infrastructure."

The government’s move provides Indian police with the power to detain members of the party even if they have not been involved in insurgent activity. After the Congress party won a decisive victory in the general elections, it no longer needs support from communist parties in the new government. Now is the time of reckoning for the Indian communists.

Indian Army engineers today defused a high-intensity improvised explosive device (IED) that was planted on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway, which is being used by a convoy of 53 vehicles carrying more than 1,700 pilgrims to the Amarnath Yatra, ANI reported. It is the season of the Hindu pilgrimage to the shrine of the Lord Shiva’s phalis. Shiva is the third person of the Hindu trinity.

Muslim extremists will attempt to stop the Hindu pilgrims, as they did last year. Some will operate from Pakistan.

India-Russia: The Russian contract with India allows for only one nuclear submarine, the Nerpa, to be leased to India, a government official said on 22 June -- dismissing media rumors that several nuclear submarines would be leased.

The deputy chief of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, said in an interview with RIA Novosti that he feels India needs the 12,000-ton K-152 sub “more for enhancing its prestige than for accomplishing specific goals.”

New Delhi reportedly paid $650 million for a 10-year lease of the vessel, an AKULA II-class nuclear-powered attack submarine. Sea trials, which were delayed by an on-board accident in November 2008, will resume in July, and the sub will be delivered to India by year-end.

Most Russian government officials consistently have denied that the lease contract exists, though a few have leaked that it does exist. Industry sources consistently have stated the contract is genuine. Readers, it is genuine. Russia also has worked with Indian engineers on developing pop-up technology for launching submarine-launched nuclear armed ballistic missiles (SLBM).

The point of this is that the Russians don’t want to be blamed for proliferating SLBM technology and nuclear propulsion technology which the Indian engineers will mate during the duration of the lease. As for nuclear proliferation, the US takes no position regarding nuclear submarine propulsion.

Afghanistan: Thanks to a poorly researched and ludicrous Wall Street Journal item – repeated by FOX and every other shallow US entertainment news network -- the whole world has been informed that Afghan Taliban Leader Mullah Omar appears to be asserting more direct control over operations and fighters in Afghanistan. This “profound” insight came from U.S. officials and insurgents in Afghanistan. Wow!

Since January, these sources said, Omar has issued orders through his direct lieutenants for suicide bombings and assassinations in southern and eastern Afghanistan, and has been replacing field commanders and “shadow governors” in the provinces, in preparation for a surge of U.S. troops. Defense officials say the Shura also has been depositing weapons of caches throughout eastern and southern Afghanistan, recruiting more fighters and appointing new local commanders in the region.

Comment: NW has studied and watched Omar since his emergence as leader before 1996. His emergence is itself close to miraculous. He has never been a tactician who issues attack orders and never much of a strategist. He is a visionary, high on drugs and his own Islamic fantasies.

The very idea of his involvement in specific target selection is laughable to old hands. He has never asserted direct authority over fighting groups. Thus the idea of his assertion of tactical command would be without precedent, were it not so risible. He is an incompetent military commander.

Moreover, the notion of Omar’s assertion of military authority is not consistent with his management style, or with the practices of Afghan Shuras. Omar’s involvement in tactics would be great news for the Coalition, were the report remotely credible. In the NW experience more hands-on involvement by Omar would ensure a Coalition success! Tacticians and operational commanders far more competent than Omar are directing the fight!

If the news leaks measure the quality of US intelligence analysis, NW urges the command to find new analysts, including some who actually read history, understand it, and perform critical analysis. For example, issuing orders through lieutenants is how the visionary Omar crosses the barrier between his dream state and the reality of his combat directors, DUH.

The comment that the Shura is issuing orders on logistics contradicts the main premise of the item. The Shura is the device Omar uses to operationalize his visions. The Journal article is contradictory nonsense. A competent critique of its misinformation would take more time and room than NW allots.

Iran: The Supreme Leader found the line the regime can hold. The Basij and the Revolutionary Guards responded to orders as ordered. The modest demonstrations today in Tehran were the proof that a government-changing uprising has not formed.

The proof is that no demonstrations have been reported in any other large cities but Tehran. Everywhere else, people went to work. The opposition is not ended; it will now go underground and find real leaders … and weapons and explosives. The fight might not resurface for a long time.

Riot police used tear gas and fired shots into the air to disperse about 1,000 protesters at Haft-e Tir Square in Tehran, the BBC reported today. Witnesses reported helicopters and Basij militiamen carrying clubs are also present at the square, and are attempting to drive the demonstrators away

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has posted a statement to its Web site, warning political protesters “to be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation” with security forces if they resume demonstrations, The Associated Press reported. Through a statement on his own Web site, opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi called for supporters to wage a silent protest, by turning on their car headlights

Iran’s Kargozaran political party -- which is affiliated with Assembly of Experts chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- has called for opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi to form a new political bloc, with a long-term aim of undermining what it called President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s “illegitimate” government in Tehran, the Financial Times reported on 22 June.

Kargozaran spokesman Hossein Marashi, who predicted that opposition protests would continue, said that Mousavi had become the leader” of a majority who think their rights are trampled on by Mr. Ahmadi-Nejad and the Guardian Council,” and that he should establish a “political front” to “embrace the defenders of the real Islamic republic” against “those who are distorting it.”

This baloney is not credible. It urges opposition within a system that is not open to discourse or even questions, by leaders who are adherents of the system. Iran is not a democracy, not even an Islamic democracy. That should be plain, even to Iranians. The old time revolutionary leaders have no credibility of competence to make it as democratic as Jordan.

FOX and other Western News agencies made much of the Guardian Council’s acknowledgment that the number of votes cast in 50 cities exceeded the actual number of voters there -- a discrepancy that could affect 3 million votes, news agencies reported, citing state television.

FOX and other western agencies did not report that Iranians can vote in more than one polling place. Iran has no “one man, one vote law.” Thus, ballot box totals that exceed the number of registered voters in a single constituency are not unusual, according to a full reading of the Guardian Council statement!! Damnum absque injuria, in US tort law – no harm, no foul.

This happens in every election, according to the Council, and is not irregular in the Iranian system, however poorly it has been described to and understood by its population. This is the definition of a non-system. It is a miracle of Islam that any Islamic theocracy even goes through the motions of elections.

One failed candidate, Mohsen Rezaie, claimed that voting irregularities took place in up to 170 districts. Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei dismissed those claims, saying that the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters “in only 50 cities.

(Note: Only 50 cities and 3 million votes. That evidence is sufficient to compel an honest and curious official to want a complete recount, in an honest and open system. The Iranian leaders are a world class laughing stock, not that they seem to care.)

” Kadkhodaei also noted that such discrepancies are normal in Iran because people are allowed to vote in districts other than where they are officially registered. Kadkhodaei said the Guardian Council would recount votes in districts where opposition candidates claim irregularities occurred, but “it has yet to be determined whether the possible change in the tally is decisive in the election results.”

Comment: The failure to sustain the protests in the outer cities so as to over-extend security resources, by itself, signaled the end of any threat to the regime. Sputtering, hopeless demonstrations always occur in the capital long after everyone else has gone to ground … and always flop.

The regime found the line it can hold by overreacting. This means it succeeded in using brutality and violence as a response to non-violent questions about the election outcome. Pepe Escobar in Asia Times Online wrote today that during this past weekend Khamenei became exactly like the Shah. Questions of political fairness were re-interpreted as challenges to authority, which they are not … unless made so by a paranoid and craven political leadership. Khamenei is acting like the Shah and his Sunni arch-enemy, Saddam Hussein.

This is a lot like Martial Law in Poland and its long term consequences. In order to impose martial law in Poland in 1981 and avert a massive Soviet military occupation, General Jaruzelski’s regime used the Polish security forces and Army to control Solidarnosc and to prevent the short term collapse of the communist regime. Ironically, his brutality in the short term ensured in the long term that the regime would collapse. It did, and so will the present regime in Tehran, but not yet.

Analysts might find it worthwhile to compare the similarity in tactics of an authoritarian, atheistic communist regime trying to survive and an authoritarian Shiite Islamic regime also trying to survive. Ideals seem to have a very short shelf life compared to possession of power.

The eventual overthrow will not be led by Mousavi or Rafsanjani. Their goal is to correct the heresy of Khamenei, Ahmadi-Nejad and the Revolutionary Guards who back them. They want to restore a revolution that technology has bypassed.

Readers might note the regime failed to use religion to stop the demonstrations. Like the communists, it used guns and clubs to keep itself in power. Still the events reinforced the lesson that the guys with the most and biggest guns always win in the short tem! Authoritative regimes never learn and never change.

The young people of the technology generation in Iran have little need for the corrupt, craven and cowardly leadership and crabbed theology of Rafsanjani and Mousavi and of Khamenei and Ahmadi-Nejad. Overthrow of Khamenei and his cretins will require new leaders who enlarge on Khomeini’s vision, if they do not discard it altogether and conjure a new one. They will go underground after one or two more spasms in Tehran which will serve to reinforce that the regime is less legitimate than the Shah.

There is no more uprising for now. The images of psychopathic Iranian Basiji goons kicking and beating university students in helpless positions on the ground show that the devout ayatollahs have produced a regime that is morally no better than the Chinese communists during Tian An Men or the North Koreans … on good days.

Iran-Foreign Reactions:

Bahrain: Today the government suspended the publication of the Arabic newspaper Akhbar Al Khaleej, apparently because yesterday it published an opinion piece that criticized the Iranian regime, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported. Bahraini authorities gave no reason for the action against the newspaper. Columnist Sameera Rajab had written an article questioning the Iranian regimes principles and suggesting that the elections revealed the "true face" of Iran's dictatorship.

So much for the openness and democratic spirit of our friends and allies in the Persian Gulf. Readers will be quick to remind NightWatch that Bahrain has a large Persian and Shiite population. The reminders will be a useful reminder to all that freedom of speech has no universal definition independent of national security, as each nation defines national security, not freedom of speech.

United Arab Emirates: The Foreign Minister today expressed concerns about instability in Iran and said foreign interference there is "unacceptable," Reuters reported. Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan said all countries in the region believe that no country should be "exposed to instability.”

Russia: Ria Novosti reported the Foreign Ministry respects the results of Iran's presidential election and will continue developing cooperation and ties with Tehran according to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement. The statement says Russia believes "disagreements arising after the elections should be settled in strict compliance with Iran's constitution and law."

Middle Eastern sources and news outlets continue to report on Russia’s re-emergence as a leader in the Middle East. The Lebanese have been pointed in their warnings about Russian inroads, but somehow the Western press fails to pick up on the subtler developments in Middle Eastern affairs. Wake up, people. The Russians are making significant inroads from the Mediterranean to the South China Sea.

United Kingdom: Britain is withdrawing the families of Foreign Office staff members from Iran because of the unrest, The Associated Press reported today, citing a statement by the Ministry. Staff members themselves are not being withdrawn. Curiously, despite the allegations of foreign involvement and Supreme Leader’s déclassé insults of the United Kingdom on Friday, the British government has not advised other British nationals to leave the country.

Italy: The government announced its Embassy in Tehran is willing to take in wounded protesters in coordination with other European countries, Reuters reported today, citing an announcement from the Italian Foreign Ministry. Italy's decision follows Sweden’s decision to begin exploring whether European Union countries can develop a plan to open their embassies to protesters, according to the ministry. Italy is lock step with Sweden.

Somalia: President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed declared a state of emergency this weekend as his fragile regime faced annihilation. He told a news conference in Mogadishu it was because of "intensifying violence across the country". The UN-backed transitional government is coming under intense pressure from Islamist militias that control swathes (read this as “most”) of the country.

On Saturday, Somalia asked for urgent foreign military intervention - a call backed by the African Union. "As of today, the country is under a state of emergency," President Ahmed told reporters in the capital, according to Agence France-Presse. “It is time for neighboring countries to take charge and intervene” The emergency is for Ahmed to leave on the next aircraft.

If the Islamists take over in Mogadishu again, as seem only a matter of time, they will restore a brutal form of law and order that eliminates piracy … again. That would be their major positive contribution to regional affairs.

Somali Anti-piracy Patrol: Update. A Portuguese frigate foiled a pirate attack on a container vessel in the Gulf of Aden today and captured eight pirates after firing shots at their boat, the armed forces command in Lisbon said. The eight were freed after consultation with the Portuguese government, in line with the procedure for warships serving under NATO command, but their weapons were confiscated, a military statement said.

The Corte Real, operating with NATO forces in the region, was escorting a Pakistani merchant ship, the Bolan, when it received a distress call from the Singapore-flagged Maersk Phoenix, the Portuguese news agency Lusa reported. A Lusa correspondent on the Corte Real said the frigate sped to rescue the container ship, which was some four nautical miles away, and opened fire at a pirate boat. Several shots were fired across the boat's bows before the pirates surrendered, the report added. A boarding party of Portuguese marines confiscated four assault rifles, a grenade-launcher, grenades and explosives.

A Turkish ship, the Gaziantep, also went to the scene and took over the escort of the Bolan and Maersk Phoenix, Lusa said.

This would be a good news story except for the salient fact that the Portuguese received orders to release the pirates. The NATO effort continues to waste time and national treasure because the political leadership has failed the Naval leadership by failing to develop plans for dealing with the pirates and their bases.

Hmmmm … Why could not the USMC put on an international Marine Corps event in which the participants practiced over the beach drills along the Somali coast and in the process save US and NATO taxpayers millions of dollars in escort costs by pursuing a semi-permanent, if not permanent, solution to the piracy.

France: For the Record. President Nicolas Sarkozy said 22 June that the wearing of the burqa in France is not welcome, calling the full-body garment a "sign of subservience, a sign of debasement" of women, The Associated Press reported. Apparently anything does not go in Paris, but then people who know France already knew that. Burgas are not welcome in France!

End of NightWatch for 22 June.