NightWatch

For the Night of 18 June 2009

North Korea: North Korea may be planning to fire a long-range ballistic missile from its Tong Chang-ri facility in the country's northwest between 4 and 8 July 4; it is likely to be launched toward Hawaii, Japan's Defense Ministry said and the Daily Yomiuri News reported 18June.

According to the Ministry, a launch might occur to celebrate the 4^th of July -- that is how the US should describe such a launch should it occur! However, a long range eastward missile launch probably will not take place from Tong Chang-ri, which is on the west coast.

The best launch azimuths from the Tong Chang-ri west coast missile complex, according to the experts, are southward towards the Philippines because that is the general orientation of the launch tower. A southward trajectory has the advantages of complicating Allied missile detection capabilities and crossing no international airspace.

An eastward launch across Japanese airspace is most likely to take place from Musudan-ri on the east coast. It also has received a long-range missile airframe, according to South Korean media. The experts argue that Musudan-ri is much more capable of a near term launch than Tong Chang-ri, which has never been used.

The Japanese Defense Ministry’s statement is confusing because the optimal launch azimuths are not secrets. A launch towards Hawaii would cross the middle of Japan. Prime Minister Aso’s government might be leaking inflammatory data to build domestic support for a strong Japanese response to the threat.

Meanwhile, before the end of June, North Korea is highly likely to launch multiple medium and short range ballistic missiles from Kittaeryong, in southeastern North Korea, towards Japan. This will pose a challenge to the Aso government long before a North Korean long-range missile is test-launched.

North Korea-UN: US press services reported that a North Korean arms carrier has departed the port of Nampo. This appears to be a genuine arms shipment to an unidentified recipient as well as a test of the new UN Security Council sanctions on proliferation.

The US Navy announced yesterday that it will request permission to board North Korean merchant ships suspected of carrying contraband, but it will not board without permission. The best opportunity to stop North Korean proliferation is at ports of call.

Make no mistake: this is a deliberate North Korean test of the new sanctions regime. If the ship is boarded, the North warned yesterday that it will respond with military violence. The North Korean warnings must be taken at face value, under current circumstances. They are not kidding.

Conditions are set for an armed confrontation, but which is still avoidable. This is a warning.

China-India: China and India have agreed to set up a hotline between the prime ministers of each country, Press Trust of India reported 18 June, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the agreement. The decision was made during talks between Indian Prime Minister Singh and Chinese President Hu Jintao in Yekaterinburg, Russia on 15 June. Singh will be able to reach Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao through the hotline, which is expected to be operational sometime in July.

Hmm… Typically, hotlines are set up between adversaries to reduce the risks of escalation that can result from delayed or garbled communications. Hot lines are the quintessential crisis management tool. With them in place and in use, both sides understand that crisis escalation is deliberate! Not inadvertent.

China and India have bent over backwards to profess in public their friendship and strategic partnership. The hotline announcement negates all the love … in a single sentence.

It is long overdue as a mechanism to help manage the coming strategic confrontation between these two rising Asian powers … about ten years off still.

India-Pakistan: An assessment by India's Multi-Agency Center (MAC) says 42 terrorist training camps directed against India exist in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the Times of India reported 18 June.

The MAC, a central agency for terrorism-related intelligence, reported 34 "active" camps and eight "holding" camps in Pakistan, with 17 "active" and four "holding" camps each in Pakistan's northern areas and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. An unnamed official said the camps hold an estimated 2,200 militants.

After the November 2008 Mumbai attack, many of the camps cleared out or changed locations, but some are back to their original condition, and new ones have appeared, the official added. About 300 of those militants are part of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), with 240 from Jaish-e-Mohammed, 130 from Huji and the rest of "mixed'' origins, the assessment says. (Note: LeT and JeM are associated with the Mumbai attacks.)

Comment: Indian security authorities consistently have estimated the numbers of Kashmiri militants as between 800 and 1,000 in Jammu and Kashmir State. This is the first recent estimate of the number of Kashmiri militants supported by Pakistani entities still in camps inside Pakistan. These 2,200 militants are the primary tactical reason why relations between these two states are not more cordial.

Kazakhstan: For the record. Danial Ahmetov has been removed from his post as Kazakh defense minister, Kazakhstan Today reported 18 June, citing the president's news service. Altynbayev Muhtar Kapashevich, chairman of the Committee of Chiefs of Staffs and first deputy defense minister, has been named acting defense minister.

Iran: Update. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is scheduled to lead Friday prayers on 19 June in Tehran, with members of the Basij volunteer militia present, Agence France-Presse reported today. The militia issued a statement urging members to attend, and warning defeated presidential candidates who have protested election results that they must “explicitly disassociate themselves from the rioters” in Tehran, the Mehr news agency reported.

Supporters of failed presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are planning to attend the Friday prayers also; the Basij have called for all sides to avoid “provocative actions.”

Several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been arrested because of their opposition to plans scheduled for tomorrow to provoke a government crackdown, Iranian Web site Tehran Bureau reported. Tehran Bureau added that "the plan is to create chaos and bloody confrontations." Other news services claimed the deaths among the protestors have been the result of provocations by Revolutionary Guardsmen in mufti among the demonstrators.

Iran's election headquarters has rejected a request by defeated presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei to release details from the 12 June presidential election returns, Press TV reported today. Iranian Electoral Commission chief Kamran Daneshju said "The law does not reserve such a right for candidates," and that the department will work within the framework of the law.

Comment: A brilliant and discerning Reader reported in Feedback that Rezaie requested all Iranians who voted for him to register on his web site on the Internet. In 24 hours, he registered 900,000 votes, compared to the official count of 300,000, according to NPR.

All the new data points to monumental voter fraud by Ahmadi-Nejad’s official supporters in every voting district that has found a way to report.

Guardian Council speaker, Abasali Kadkhodai, said on Tuesday that "the possibility of a vote annulment is not outside the realm of possibility, ISN Security Watch reported. He is the first official to make such a statement in public. His sincerity is not at all clear.

ISN also is reporting that former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is preparing to call an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts, to investigate the crisis. Rafsanjani’s real purpose is to examine the role that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have played in the crisis. This would include examination of charges that Khamenei might have violated the Constitution by approving Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s victory before the three-day waiting period required by law for the Guardian Council to investigate all the outstanding complaints.

In Tehran, a “silent sea” of black-clad mourners made its way through the streets, commemorating the lives of those slain in six straight days of protests since the announcement of President Ahmedi-Nejad’s election victory. The scenes recalled the mass mourning protests of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when hundreds of thousands took to the streets to play their part in the overthrow of the Shah.

The funeral symbology plays on the imagery of the 1979 revolution in which Ayatollah Khomeini called Iranians to mourn those who died overthrowing the Shah. This is dangerous imagery that evokes powerful memories which implicitly equate Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadi-Nejad with the Shah. Mousavi and his cohorts have the upper hand in perception management, at least.

Outlook. The volatility of the next steps will depend on the public reaction to Khamenei’s sermon on Friday; on Monday's march along Vali Asr Street in Tehran and in 19 other cities; plus the national strike on Tuesday, called by Mousavi. The critical variable is whether the paramilitary forces and police respond to their chains of command to defend the regime and suppress the demonstrations. If security personnel side with the demonstrators and unit integrity fragments, the Khamenei/Ahmadi-Nejad regime ultimately will fall.

Comment: The anecdotal news snippets cited above are typical of an authoritarian government that is in disarray. The Supreme leader seems to not know how to react. Mousavi’s tactics have shown Ahmadi-Nejad to be the buffoon that most suspected and has exposed the Supreme Leader as his puppet master.

The stakes are no longer about the outcome of the election but about the integrity of the Supreme Leader, the eminence grise behind Ahmadi-Nejad. Mousavi has pierced the veil. If the opposition is to succeed it must impeach Khamenei, whose ouster will bring down Ahmadi-Nejad as well.

The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has become the target of the demonstration leaders and a growing number of Grand Ayatollahs who are angered by what they now know is Khamenei’s campaign of voter fraud.

Another indicator to watch is whether the chain of command for the security forces remains responsive to political direction. The arrest of security personnel is a powerful sign that the government fears that some security forces cannot be relied on to follow directions to suppress demonstrations -- they might join the protests.

Russia-South Ossetia-Abkhazia: Russian army brigades based in South Ossetia and Abkhazia will take part in a large-scale military exercise in the Caucasus in late June and early July, the Ground Forces commander said 18 June, RIA Novosti reported. The so-called "Caucasus-2009" exercise will include North Caucasus District troops as well as units of the Black Sea Fleet, the Caspian Sea Flotilla and the Air Force.

This appears to be a Russian riposte to the recent US exercise with the Georgians -- two can play the exercise game.

Algeria: A militant group affiliated with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb detonated two bombs late 17 June, targeting a convoy of six vehicles transporting policemen and Chinese workers, killing 24 police, Kuwaiti state news agency reported 18 June. The militants fired at the policemen, stole their weapons and uniforms and set the vehicles on fire. There is no report whether or not there were Chinese fatalities.

This appears to be retaliation for the operations by the Malian army, reported yesterday. The key point for Readers is that the terrorists attacked easy targets in Algeria. They are not yet displaying capabilities greater than that of organized criminals, despite the regrettable loss of life.

Mexico: “A new study by the Government Accountability Office says most firearms recovered in drug violence in Mexico come from the US,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The GAO study was released today, 18 June.

The main shortcoming of the study, based only on press summaries, mind, is that it does not seem to account for Cartel acquisition of rocket propelled grenade launchers and military grade machine guns, which are not sold in the gun stores of Houston, Texas. The summaries suggest the study supports the apologetic tone that Americans are responsible for their own and Mexican deaths and much of the violence. That is the propaganda of the Mexican government that seems to resonate with sympathizers in the US executive branch.

While that argument might have theological merit in imposing guilt on Americans, it sidesteps the question who supplies RPGs and HMG to the drug cartels. Those come from Calderon’s Mexican Army.

Consider: the Calderon administration deployed the Army to control violence in Ciudad Juarez. Its opposition was not a bunch of thugs with hand guns, but men armed and trained to fight the Army to a standoff on the Army terms. Ultimately they lived to fight another day, tying the Army down in Juarez while the marijuana harvest poured across the border into the US — Houston is a central distribution point.

The GAO report implies that it took a Mexican Army to control guys who bought their guns in the gun stores of Houston! or other Texas border towns. That finding simply is not credible.

Cyber: Feedback. A brilliant and well informed reader advised that the number of attacks against non-defense systems in a day is almost trivial. That is a great perspective, as stated below.

“Large numbers of small aggressive acts on the internet are perfectly normal.  The internet eco-system has simply learned to deal with them as most are benign given a small modicum of protection and a dose of common sense.  Larger, state-sponsored attacks on our country are being planned by our adversaries and I am concerned that our government is not focused on the right indicators of failure/success in this area which inevitably leads to mismanagement of our resources.”

The thrust of the feedback -- from a bona fide expert -- is that a new eco-system is emerging with distinctive characteristics, including worms and other computer vermin that come with the system. The system is biological in that people are mounting the attacks, but is electronic/digital in that the weapon of choices is the Internet. The constant attacks are similar to biological infestations of living systems which respond by controlling them.

This is a new hybrid in that it is a symbiosis of biology and electronics. That suggests that protective initiatives that concentrate on one aspect of this hybrid eco-system over the other will fail.

Special thanks to feedback!

End of NightWatch for 18 June.