NightWatch

For the Night of 16 June 2009

North Korea: The Korean Central News Agency reported remarks made yesterday by a Vice Minister of the People Armed Forces that the North would launch “preventive” strikes against the US and the Republic of Korea should North Korean merchant ships be intercepted.

North Korea-US: The Associated Press reported today that the North Korean government released the evidence it used to convict the two US journalists of illegal entry. In short, the women recorded audio and video tapes that they illegally had entered North Korea and took a stone ostensibly to prove it.

They were convicted by their own efforts to document their disregard for North Korean sovereignty. . "We've just entered a North Korean courtyard without permission," the Korean translation of their videotape narration said, according to Korean Central News Agency.

Comment: What the women did constitutes an extraordinary exercise of stupidity and an affront to the dignity of a sovereign state. They are lucky they were not shot on the spot.

North Korea-China: Reuters and Asahi Shimbun reported today that North Korean leader Kim Chong-Il’s youngest son and heir apparent, Kim Jong-un, visited China recently as a special envoy and met with top government officials, including President Hu Jintao. He is said to have flown to Beijing on 10 June. An aide told Chinese officials that Kim Jong-un -- who holds an important position in the ruling Korean Workers’ Party -- had already been appointed as his father’s successor.

During meetings, the younger Kim is said to have asked for emergency energy and food supplies, while Hu asked for North Korea to halt apparent plans for a third nuclear test and a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Kim Jong-un reportedly visited factories in Guangdong province.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said 16 June "we have no information" on the report by Japan's Asahi newspaper that President Hu Jintao met Kim Jong-un, supposedly the heir apparent to Kim Chong-il. The spokesman gave the same answer when asked about a reported visit to China by North Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Chun.

North Korean Defense Minister Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun arrived in China on 13 June for an unspecified reason, Sinodaily reported 16 June. It speculated that Kim traveled to China to deliver a message from Kim Chong-il to Chinese leaders or to receive medical treatment.

Neither visit has been confirmed by authoritative sources. Both appear unlikely at this time because of China’s vote for increased sanctions in reaction to North Korea’s nuclear test. Relations appear to be strained.

North Korea-US: The US Navy will be ordered to hail and request permission to inspect North Korean ships -- but will not board them by force -- as part of enforcement efforts authorized by the new UN Security Council resolution, the New York Times reported 16 June, citing senior Obama administration officials.

Any ship that refuses inspection will be reported to the Security Council, and Washington will carry out diplomatic campaigns urging inspections to be conducted by any country that allows the vessel into port, authorities said. The administration believes that China also plans to enforce the new sanctions, in response to North Korea’s recent missile and nuclear tests. US officials believe they already have sufficient intelligence and naval assets in the Sea of Japan to track North Korean ships and flights.

Note: North Korean merchant ships usually need fuel as they approach Singapore and the ports of eastern India. Indian port authorities are stringent enforcers of UN sanctions against ships carrying contraband, when tipped off. Regarding proliferation, the US Navy does not need to enforce the sanctions so much as work behind the scenes with Indian Ocean port authorities to inspect and confiscate illegal cargos. This is called poisoning the hosts.

The difficulty is that all enforcement actions require cooperation by the Chinese. The Chinese government voted for the resolution, but that does not bind the “commercial enterprises” that do business with North Korea, as the Chinese interpret their obligations. In short, no evidence indicates the Chinese intend to do anything to enforce the resolution, beyond voting for it… yet.

India-Pakistan: Indian Prime Minister Singh met Pakistani President Zardari on 16 June at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This is their first meeting since the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, Reuters reported. Singh said, "I am happy to meet you, but my mandate is to tell you that the territory of Pakistan must not be used for terrorism."

GEO Pakistan reported that Pakistani President Zardari and Indian Prime Minister Singh did not discuss the resumption of talks during a 40-minute meeting, citing a statement from Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon. Speaking to reporters after the leaders' meeting, Menon said India had discussed its expectations regarding terrorism and the Mumbai probe with Pakistan, but did not discuss the resumption of talks between the two countries.

Singh and Zardari will meet again in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit.

Relations are on ice, despite press hype about casual meetings.

Kyrgyzstan-Russia: Russian President Medvedev approved changes to an agreement with Kyrgyzstan regarding the lease of a Russian air force base that will entail a 49-year lease with an automatic renewal every 25 years, RIA Novosti reported 6 June, citing a statement from the Kremlin. The adjusted agreement will replace the current 15-year lease with an automatic renewal every 5 years.

Russian press reported that the Kyrgyz government has been double dealing the US and the Russians regarding the status of Manas Air Base, which has been used to ferry lethal supplies to US forces in Afghanistan. According to the press report, Kyrgyzstan will join other central Asian states in allowing transit of non-lethal supplies to Afghanistan, but the government will adhere to its termination of the base agreement for using Manas.

Iran: For the record. One hundred and nineteen Tehran University faculty members resigned en masse to protest an attack on Tehran University dormitories the night of 15 June, according to a 16 June posting in The Daily Dish blog at TheAtlantic.com, which cited an article from Bambad Khabar translated by a reader.

Among those who resigned is Dr. Jabbedar Maralani, known as the father of electronic engineering in Iran. The resigned faculty members have called for the resignation of Tehran University's appointed president, Farhad Rahbari, for his incompetence in defending student lives and the university's dignity.

Comment: Indonesia, Malaysia and other Asian countries have experienced the phenomenon of the youth and pampered future leaders of the country rejecting the limited views of their parents and elders. This is partly what is taking place in Iran, which has a young population.

It is not clear that this demographic -- youth -- cohort has the political capabilities to effect systemic change yet. What is clear is that the government does not know what to do. As a result, it has ordered brigades of Revolutionary Guards in rural areas to be brought into the city to control demonstrations, according to Iranian press reports.

This tactic is identical to the Chinese response to the Tian An Men demonstrations. The country boys are always more than happy to break the heads of the pampered city dwellers who are mounting the protests. It is also a sign of political weakness and insecurity.

The time and appeal of the Khomeini-era ayatollahs is measured by the education level of the voting populace and the permeation of society by modern technology. Combined, the two influences generate widespread disdain for the banal pronouncements of the Supreme Leader and his Revolutionary Guards acolytes.

If the regime of the ayatollahs falls, its inability to stay ahead of information technology will be a driving, causative factor. Science and technology refuse to stay confined, because some man in a dress says so. During the past four days of demonstrations, Iran’s theocratic regime has become a world class embarrassment, but its youth are a source of hope.

Iraq: For the record. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said 16 June the need for US support in combat operations or to maintain public order has passed and that his government would only call on U.S. forces for logistical assistance, Agence France-Presse reported.

Al-Maliki also said he did not expect a rise in violence after 30 June, the date by which US troops must leave Iraq's cities, towns and villages, and that "regardless, ... there will be no turning back, there is no question of reviewing the agreement on the American withdrawal."

Turkey: Prime Minister Erdogan and Army Chief General IIlker Basbug met unexpectedly 16 June as tensions between the military and the ruling AK Party have risen in the wake of a report published by the liberal Taraf daily newspaper that the military had crafted a secret plan to overthrow the government, Today's Zaman reported.

In an interview with newspaper, Hürriyet published 16 June, Basbug declined to say whether he believed such a secret document existed, saying it was up to the military prosecutor to determine, but that initially, no evidence of a secret document has emerged. Government officials were not available for comment on Erdogan and Basbug's meeting.

A superficial assessment is that the Islamist AK Party has uncovered a reason for imposing further restrictions on the General Staff. The Islamists remain on the offensive against the secularists.

End of NightWatch for 16 June.