NightWatch

For the Night of 12 June 2009

South Korea-North Korea: South Korean business leaders unanimously rejected the North Korean attempt at extortion. The $500 million in rent the North is now demanding would come close to equaling a year’s worth of hard currency earnings by all other North Korean enterprises, not including drug smuggling and counterfeiting.

It is not clear whether the North intended the offer to be taken seriously or intended it to be unacceptable so as to induce the South Koreans to leave of their own accord. Apparently either alternative is acceptable to whoever is directing the policy.

Another round of talks is scheduled for 19 June, but probably will be rescheduled in light of today’s UN Security Council resolution vote.

North Korea: During this Watch, news services have reported no reaction to the UN Security Council sanctions resolution against North Korea. The North’s experts will study the text carefully before reacting. But they will react strongly.

India-Jammu and Kashmir State: At a news conference in Srinagar, Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaran announced 12 June that large numbers of Indian troops would be gradually pulled out of towns in the Muslim-majority Kashmir region, Agence France-Presse reported. After conducting what he said was an urgent review of Kashmir’s security situation, Chidambaran recommended that troops should conduct counterinsurgency operations “far away from towns and cities,” where the state police have primary security responsibilities. Though he did not give a timeline for the redeployments, which he said would “take some time,” the minister said the army would focus on patrolling the Line of Control opposite Pakistan.

This is the second time in two years that Indian authorities announced a retrenchment and rebasing of security forces without actually pulling any forces from the state. Indian basing policy is de facto occupation of the best buildings of the towns by troops from other parts of India. Indian security policy is harsh and effective, but breeds grudges and frustrates tourism and the economic vitality of the state.

The immediate issue is economic for the Kashmiris. However, every time in the past five years that India has considered withdrawing significant numbers of security personnel, the Kashmiri Islamic terrorists always have surged attacks. Thus the soldiers and police will remain but will attempt again to lower their visibility and lighten the burden of the occupation … until the next militant surge.

Pakistan: For the record. Suicide bombers attacked in Lahore in eastern Pakistan and in Nowshera in northwestern Pakistan today. These are more retaliation attacks for the security operations against the militants.

They show continuing weakness or ineptitude in Pakistan’s internal intelligence services and overall security capabilities which have been placed on high alert after the Peshawar bombing. They do not signify Pakistan is crumbling or the government is in danger of falling anymore than a high murder rate in the District of Columbia or Baltimore indicates the Republic is failing.

Afghanistan: U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said today Iran is playing a "double game" in Afghanistan, by professing to want good relations while simultaneously "sending in a relatively modest level of weapons and capabilities to attack ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) and coalition forces," GEO World reported. Gates added, "They're trying to do what they can to hurt us and hurt our allies and partners in Afghanistan, which also ends up hurting the Afghan people."

The Afghan press reports about captured Iranian weapons or skirmishing with Revolutionary Guards indicate Iran is trying to create a buffer zone along its southeastern border. Chronic unrest in Nimruz Province of Afghanistan, abetted by Iran, ties down Allied forces and retaliates for alleged US-supported anti-government operations in Sistan Baluchistan Province of Iran.

Farther north, Iran already has an economic buffer zone that ties or annexes Herat Province of Afghanistan to the economic region of northeastern Iran by road, rail and telecommunications links. Iran’s strategic concern is to ensure that US forces/special forces have no opportunity to attack Iran from Afghanistan without paying a penalty.

Iran: Press TV and Iran News Network Television (IRINN) reported just before midnight GMT 12 June that Electoral Commission chief Kamran Daneshju announced 68% of the ballot boxes had been counted. President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad had more than 15.9 million votes, or 65.96 percent, and Mir Hossein Mousavi had more than 7.5 million votes, or 31.19 percent. Final results are expected to be announced between 7 and 8 a.m. local time on the 13^th.

Both men claimed victory and Mousavi charged election fraud, a good indication he knows he lost on the vote count.

Ahmadi-Nejad’s lead has remained steady all day, based on strong support outside the large cities. If the results remain steady, the meaning is that the vast majority of Iranians support Ahmadi-Nejad either from principle or because he bribed them with cash. Either way, Ahmadi-Nejad is a genuine representative of the views of a large majority of Iranians, based on the vote. That is an unsettling thought because it means his outrageous comments are playing to his constituency.

This is almost identical to the political phenomenon in Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party wins every election because of the voting strength of the less urbanized people. Sometimes Western press services present these views as unrepresentative of the majority of the voters. That is dishonest reporting and a disservice to the Western audience. Ahmadi-Nejad looks to be the choice of the people over a less shrill and provocative, more polished and more pragmatic alternative candidate. His management ineptitude and blatant failure to keep his promises to create greater equity in the distribution of goods and wealth meant less to the voters than his zeal.

Ethiopia-Somalia: Heavily-armed Ethiopian soldiers crossed into central Somalia on Friday and entered a town controlled by a pro-government militia nearly 30 kms (19 miles) from the border, residents said. "They came with battle wagons and trucks all full of soldiers and guns," said Hassan Abdi, a resident in the town of Balanbale in Galgadud region. "Everybody is very worried."

Residents said the Ethiopian troops were setting up positions in the center of the town.

Ethiopia sent thousands of troops into Somalia in 2006 to help topple the Islamic Courts Union government in Mogadishu which controlled most of the south to the Kenyan border. Under pressure from Islamic states and from the budget, the Ethiopians withdrew in January 2009.

Residents, insurgents and humanitarian organizations have reported new incursions in the past few months. The government in Addis Ababa initially denied any soldiers had crossed into Somalia but said earlier this month that military personnel had been carrying out "reconnaissance" missions into its neighbor.

This development almost certainly signifies that the Ethiopians have found some country willing to front the money for another incursion against the Islamists. They made it clear they were withdrawing because the money dried up. The timing suggests the US stopped bankrolling the Ethiopian operation about the time of the US elections and the change of administration. Apparently the money is flowing again or the Ethiopians would not be in Somalia again.

Somalia Anti-piracy patrol: NATO ships will remain off the Horn of Africa and will retain a long-term presence there as part of NATO's anti-piracy mission, The Associated Press reported 12 June. Spanish Defense Minister Carme Chacon said that "permanent groups" from NATO would continue to be present in the waters off the coast of Somalia "in this complex challenge to eradicate piracy."

Odd choice of words by the Spanish MoD because no one is eradicating anything off Somalia, especially piracy. There is nothing permanent or durable about the NATO escort service.

End of NightWatch for 12 June.