NightWatch

For the Night of 8 April 2009

South Korea: Prime Minister Han Seung Soo said on 6 April that in light of North Korea’s rocket launch, South Korea must consider revising a defense agreement with the United States, limiting the range of South Korean missiles to 187 miles, Agence France-Presse reported. Other news services speculated that an appropriate Japanese response would be to accelerate slightly its quiet re-militarization activities.

For World War II veterans and the Chinese, a fully rearmed Japan would be the worst possible consequence of North Korean brinksmanship. The memory of World War II in Asia should be powerful enough, one would think, to consolidate a consortium to disarm North Korea as too irresponsible and narcissistic to tolerate.

North Korea: Today, tens of thousands of North Koreans rallied in Pyongyang to celebrate what the official media report was the successful satellite launch over the weekend. The rally also celebrates the opening session of the new Supreme Peoples Assembly on 9 April, at which Kim or, more likely, one of his doubles customarily appears.

These events are planned, prepared, scripted and rehearsed over a six month period at least. The logistic preparations for the large rallies are enormous. Thus, it is almost impossible for North Korea to admit the launch failed before the end of the Supreme Peoples Assembly, even if the leadership wanted, because that would mean canceling the celebration. Reality is being bent conveniently to fit the North Korean fantasy, at least for a time.

The experience of the past missile shots and the nuclear –related event proved that senior leaders know the truth. Kim Chong-il has always been an avid fan of CNN and the Internet. The celebrations and seemingly senseless insistence on success have nothing to do with the outside world and everything to do with regime legitimacy. If nothing else, they might be celebrating that they risked their national patrimony to defy the world once again, and did not get destroyed. Again.

Kim’s eldest son Kim Chong-nam gave an interview in Macao this week, in which he explicitly denied that he is in line for succession to this father and said “I am not an important person.” Chong-nam gave the interview in fluent English.

Note: US Northern Command over the weekend posted to its unclassified web site the curt statement that no missile or other object entered orbit. NightWatch assures all readers that the Northern Command statement is authoritative – there is no new addition to the space junk in orbit as the result of the North Korean launch. That does not make it a failure as a ballistic missile test. The missile traveled farther than the 1998 Taepo Dong 1 test and the 2006 Taepo Dong 2 launch was a failure within 40 seconds.

China-India: The Chinese government officially has objected to Indian President Pratibha Patil's 2 April visit to the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, to which China still lays claim to, Press Trust of India reported. China also protested a visit in January 2008 by Prime Minister Singh who announced significant upgrades to Indian Army and other security force capabilities to defend the state.

India reportedly told China its objection was unwarranted, because the state is part of India and Indian leaders have the right to visit there. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Beijing's stance on Arunachal Pradesh is "clear-cut," and that the two countries should work together to implement the consensus reached by Chinese and Indian leaders with the aim of ensuring good bilateral relations.

The message behind the message is a request by China that Indian leaders not raise contentious border issues just now. The view from New Delhi is that China claims an Indian state in the east and China’s Pakistani proxies claim an Indian state in the west. These are regular reminders to Indian strategic planners that they must consider the risk of a two front conflict whenever India defends its national territory.

Pakistan: Police in North West Frontier Province said a group of Pakistani Taliban fighters crossed late Monday from Swat into Buner District, a previously peaceful, adjacent district on the Indus River just 60 miles (100 kilometers) northwest of Islamabad. After the militants ignored appeals from community leaders to go back, armed tribesmen and police confronted them, sparking a battle that left three officers and two tribesmen dead, according to local police. They claimed more than a dozen Taliban were killed but produced no bodies. The Taliban delivered the five dead bodies to the police.

Higher level police later said the locals asked the Taliban to withdraw and they did. The clash was a misunderstanding, the police said. The Taliban mistakenly believed an Islamic cleric they sought to visit lived in Buner.

Note: this is not just a cover story, but a suggestion of infiltration of the police. The Taliban made no claim of this kind to excuse their expansion probe. When officials provided excuses for enemy hostile behavior, they have moved beyond hiding their embarrassment into betraying their sympathy. That is a rule of propaganda analysis.

This was the first Taliban incursion into Buner District, which lies outside the border tribal areas. A Taliban spokesman claimed to the Daily News that Islamabad will fall to the Pakistani Taliban soon because all the leaders have united to overthrow the government and convert Pakistan into an Islamic state.

Pakistan-US: The Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) refused to meet US special envoy Holbrooke and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen, AAJ TV reported yesterday (7 April). Director General Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha of the ISI declined to attend a private meeting, which the US requested but did attend a larger session including the US team and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif.

To set the record straight, the public relations department for the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate denied that General Pasha refused to meet the US team and pointed out his attendance at the larger venue, according to AAJ TV as reported in the Daily News.

Pakistan-Saudi Arabia: Pakistani Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Tariq Majid met Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The two discussed the Middle East peace process, the security situation in Iraq, and militant activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan along with the new U.S. strategy in the region.

In Pakistan’s military hierarchy, the JCSC is a consultative body that has some responsibility for coordination, but no authority. Pakistan has no joint doctrine and pays lip service to its merit. The Chief of the Army Staff is the most power military officer in Pakistan and the Army is the overwhelmingly dominant service.

The significance of this visit is that is spotlights a characteristic Pakistani reaction to pressure from the US. That is to demonstrate that Pakistan has other backers, including Saudi Arabia and China. For protocol purposes alone, General Majid should have been in Islamabad to greet Admiral Mullen. The Pakistanis know this and this is a snub. The underlying principle is that the US refuses to share Pakistan’s identification of India as an existential threat to Pakistan. Thus cooperation has always been and will remain limited in other fights.

Palestinian Authority-Russia: During Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ recent trip to Moscow, Russian leaders promised weapons and helicopters, according to Israel Radio. Russia agreed to supply an assortment of 5,800 firearms and two helicopters.

This Russian meddling must have Israeli approval, if only for transit. It changes nothing at this time but the report might irritate a few of the neighbors, such as Lebanon or the US, which appears to be the Israeli intent.

Georgia: President Saakashvili is unable to leave one of his residences because of continual protests outside, RIA Novosti reported on Monday. Saakashvilli reportedly plans to remain barricaded until after the conclusion of large anti-government protests in Tbilisi set for 9 April

Since his disastrous military campaign against South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Saakashvili has made changes to his cabinet to shift blame. Georgians have not been fooled. This backlash against his mismanagement of the country has been brewing for months. His time as President of Georgia is ending as his popular support base shrinks. The timing of his departure is not yet clear, but the end state is.

The evidence is thin, but NightWatch suspects Russian agents are at work encouraging the opposition. This does not signify there is pro-Russian sentiment in the anti-Saakashvili opposition. It means that Russian intelligence agents will work with any proxy to roll back pro-Western influence; undo the so-called Rose Revolution that brought Saakashvili to power and rebuild their sphere of influence. The Russians would benefit from his ouster, even if the Georgians remained anti-Russian but more neutral towards the west. QED.

Somali pirate patrol: News services have reported a surge in pirate attacks since Saturday. At least seven ships have been seized and several additional attacks have been repelled. The headline attack in the US news was against M/V Maersk Alabama, flying a Danish flag but with a US crew.

During this Watch, the crew has retaken the ship. The Captain, however, handed himself to the pirates as a surety early in the episode and has been taken ashore in a speed boat. The USS Bainbridge has sailed to the area of the incident and is lending assistance, ideally for the Captain’s rescue.

The spike in attacks coincides with the arrival of better weather. The lull in January and February thus shows the modern navies had less to do with improvements in security than the weather. More ominous is that the latest attacks have taken place out to 300 miles from the Somali coast, including to the Seychelles.

Several commentators highlighted the changed tactics by which some Somali pirate groups manage to seize ships far from the coast. What they do not provide is the hypothesis that this proves the existence of a well organized criminal syndicate with modern communications that link pirates to agents in port authorities from Kenya to the Suez Canal. The business is too big and rich to fail simply because modern frigates are present.

Without supporting operations on land and in the port authorities, the naval escort duty is expensive practice in seamanship, fundamentally irrelevant to controlling piracy, much less suppressing it. The weather has more impact than anecdotal, uncoordinated and piecemeal successes in repelling boarders.

Two questions need an answer. Why did merchant ship owners do nothing to respond to the warning last month by regional pirate tracking authorities that good weather would bring a spike in piracy. How can pirates track ships 300 miles from shore but modern navies continue to lag the innovation and ingenuity of the pirates.

It is important to bring criminals to trial, but long before courts existed, it was important to bring them to justice. Curiously, studies by the American Bar Association indicate that justice must be swift, punishments predictable and outcomes certain in order for crime to decline. That is also reflected in the history of pirate control.

Sudan: Kidnappers in are demanding a $200 million ransom for two French and Canadian aid workers, who were taken hostage in the Darfur region, according to 6 April media reports. The Sudan Tribune cited a news service close to Sudanese intelligence as the source of the information. The foreign ministries of France and Canada have said they are attempting to make contact with the unidentified kidnappers. Kidnapping, including human trafficking, is the most under-reported but fastest growing criminal enterprise, according to international criminal studies.

Brazil-Russia: Russia has signed an agreement worth about $150 million to sell Brazil a dozen Mi-35 Hind attack helicopters, with deliveries to begin by the end of this year or early 2010, RIA Novosti reported on Monday. Alexander Fomin, deputy director of the Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation, said Russia was hopeful that its Su-35 fighter also would be chosen in a Brazilian tender for the delivery of more than 100 aircraft. Technology transfer is an important condition of the deal, as Brazil attempts to stimulate its own defense industry.

Readers might recall that last year Brazilian authorities announced a sweeping plan to re-arm their forces, including buying submarines and modern aircraft. This tends to show they were serious.

Venezuela-Japan: Japan will invest $33.5 billion in Venezuela, President Chavez said yesterday (7 April), concluding his state visit to Japan, Bloomberg reported. Japan will invest $10 billion in liquefied natural gas within five years, $8 billion in petrochemicals, $4 billion in a fund for joint projects and $1.5 billion in refining. Chavez did not say where the other $10 billion will be invested. Japanese companies also pledged to invest $8 billion in Venezuela's Orinoco oil belt, Chavez said.

The Far East needs long term secure oil supplies. China and Japan see Venezuela as one of many sources of energy supply in the future. The experience of US companies ought to make them think again about the security of any agreements while Chavez is president.

Venezuela: Members of the Caracas Metropolitan Police and the Bolivarian National Guard used tear gas to break up a protest in Caracas in support of mayor and opposition leader Antonio Ledezma, Univision reported on 6 April. Ledezma attempted to enter the National Assembly to dispute the Law of the District Capital, which would lead to the creation of a new political authority in Caracas and is expected to be passed in April. Ledezma alleged that the bill violates Article 31 of the Constitution.

The significance is that Chavez continues to consolidate personal power. Despite denials, he is quashing all opposition on the path to becoming another, tiresome elected dictator.

Bolivia: The Morales government has reached an agreement with the United States to continue to cooperate in the fight against drugs, especially in the areas of logistics and the eradication of illegal coca plants, El Deber reported yesterday (7April). The agreement will provide a $26 million grant to the Bolivian government in 2009, in addition to another $20 million at a later date.

The NightWatch hypothesis is that this is a ripple effect of the economic recession. The ex-coca farmer previously said he would not deal with the US on drug eradication. Bolivia must be desperate for the finances.

End of NightWatch for 8 April.