NightWatch

For the Night of 4 January 2009

India-Pakistan: Pakistan rejected an Indian demand for Pakistan to hand over 40 named terrorists to India for prosecution. Indian officials made the point over the weekend that an extradition treaty was not required because Pakistan is a signatory to multiple international agreements on combating terrorism that permit renditions.

Indian authorities announced that they plan to present their evidence about the involvement of Pakistanis in the 26 November Mumbai attack to China, the UK, the US and other countries this week. They have described it as “irrefutable” and “unanswerable.”

Israel’s Operation Cast Lead has removed the India-Pakistan crisis from the headlines, but the tension persists. In presenting its evidence to key nations public, India is attempting to increase the diplomatic pressure on Pakistan and to persuade Pakistan’s supporters to take India’s side.

This is a significant escalation measure, assuming the evidence is a strong as the Indians allege. India has little reasonable alternative but to continue on an escalation path if Pakistan still refuses to cooperate on India’s terms, as it certainly will.

Pakistan: For the record. According to an item in the Daily Times, a former senator from Baluchistan Province accused the federal government of backing the Taliban to use them to combat the Baluchi separatist insurgents. Former senator Sanaullah Baloch said the Taliban have “captured” extensive land holdings near Quetta and established “no go” zones where it governs.

According to the item, “Baloch said the government was fully aware of these encroachments but it was deliberately silent because the Taliban enjoy the support of the government and its intelligence agencies who wish to pit the religious elements against the Baloch nationalists.”

While the accusations appear difficult to credit, this is the same strategy that Musharraf used to combat the Baluchi insurgents.

Israel: The cabinet approved the recall of more reservists to military service on 3 January. They began reporting for duty on the 4^th. President Shimon Peres rejected all calls for a ceasefire. French President Sarkozy is expected to renew diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting during his visit to Israel on 5 January.

Israel-Gaza Strip: On 3 January, task-organized Israeli mechanized units entered northern Gaza Strip and began to partition it. Hamas launched 40-50 rockets on 4 January. Mostly light skirmishing has been reported. The Israeli formations have not entered Gaza City but have cut it off from the rest of the Strip.

Haaretz reported on 5 January the Israel Air Force on Sunday struck and wounded Husam Hamdan, a senior Hamas militant responsible for the Qassam rocket infrastructure in the Gaza town of Khan Yunis and the firing of Grad rockets on Be'er Sheva and Ofakim. The attack also wounded Hamas militants Mohammed Hilo and Mohammed Shalfuh, members of Hamas' special forces who helped supervise the construction and firing of Qassams from Khan Yunis.

The significance of the Haaretz report is that it shows Israel is using a systemic approach to destroy the rocket threat, from weapons design to manufacture to targeting. Israel’s air targeting still features the excellent and detailed tactical intelligence that aggregates into a strategic mosaic of the rocket infrastructure, working backwards from each Israeli town hit by rockets.

Assuming the reports are accurate as presented, Operation Cast Lead, thus far, is emerging as a text book example of how tactical targeting integrated in a phenomenological, process-based strategy can achieve near permanent strategic results. Despite the wisdom of the TV talkers, the Israelis stand a reasonable chance of destroying the present core of Palestinian racketeers.

The Israelis have admitted losing one soldier killed and about 35 wounded, only two seriously. Press reports state 500 Palestinians have died in the week of fighting, giving a kill ratio of 500 Palestinians for every Israeli soldier killed. The Los Angeles Times reported 42 Palestinians died on Sunday.

Russia-Ukraine-Europe: Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have reported drops in supplies by as much as 40 percent after Russian state-controlled gas export monopoly Gazprom cut off Ukraine on New Year's Day in a row over prices, according to Reuters.

Germany, Europe's biggest economy, has so far not seen supplies drop. The European Union, which gets about a fifth of its gas from pipelines that cross Ukraine, has demanded that transit and supply contracts be honored. Russian and Ukraine's gas companies traded allegations yesterday, indicating the prospect of a swift resolution to the dispute could be remote.

Gazprom said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had approved its move to take Ukraine's state-run gas company to the arbitration court in Stockholm over gas transit to Europe.

Ukraine, reeling from an economic crisis, said the higher gas price being proposed by Gazprom would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and warned of "serious problems" for transit supplies to the EU if the row was not resolved in 10 to 15 days.

Moscow says Kiev is stealing gas intended for Europe and playing political games. Ukraine accused Russia of using "energy blackmail" and of not providing enough gas for the proper functioning of the transit system.

The current European Union President, the Czech Republic, said the EU would not get involved in what it considers a “business” dispute, but the Russians, the Ukrainians and the EU understand business is politics. The Russians are engaged in a political show of force against the pro-western interests in the Ukraine occasioned by an ongoing and genuine economic dispute over natural gas. No party at this time has an interest in treating the dispute as anything other than an economic disagreement.

France- Somalia Pirate Patrol: A French warship captured 19 Somali pirates on Sunday when it came to the rescue of two cargo ships threatened in the Gulf of Aden, the office of President Sarkozy said. The French frigate "Jean de Vienne" was on patrol off the Somali coast as part of a European Union anti-piracy force when it came to the rescue of a Croatian cargo vessel and a Panamanian ship crossing the Gulf of Aden. The 19 Somali pirates were armed and equipped to board the vessels. The French frigate has handed them over to Somali authorities, the statement said

End of NightWatch for 4 January.