NightWatch

For the Night of 17 August 2008

India-Kashmir: Scattered groups of protesters across Kashmir repeated their call for independence on Sunday as Muslim separatist leaders prepared for a march expected to draw large crowds. The streets of Srinagar, the capital, were relatively quiet today, a day after tens of thousands of mourners honored a slain separatist leader and demanded Indian forces leave Kashmir. Separatist groups prepared for a march on Monday through downtown Srinagar.

No news service reported violent protests or demonstrations over the weekend. The absence of violence in the weekend’s mass demonstrations is the first positive turn in the past several weeks.

Pakistan: Update. President Musharraf reinforced his determination to defend himself against impeachment by demanding to see the charges against him. His antics are theatrics, bluster and intimidation.

The Coalition has made final the charges against Musharraf and sent them to the leaders of the parliamentary Coalition for review prior to formal submission to the leadership of the National Assembly for formal processing. Musharraf’s attorneys know that the Constitution requires that he shall receive the charges after they have been approved by the National Assembly leaders and duly recorded. The National Assembly leadership formally serves the charges on the President.

The Pakistan Peoples’ Party leaders have worked diligently this weekend to avoid an open confrontation with the President over impeachment, preferring his quiet resignation. Sensing their hesitation, Musharraf has attacked twice, putting pressure on this “conflict avoidance tendency” by the PPP through his insistence that he will stand and defend himself in the National Assembly.

Musharraf’s behavior in past personal crises has featured vacillation between bravado in going down fighting and reluctance to risk public humiliation. Bravado has carried the day over humility.

He has always been a competent tactician, but an inept strategist. This is a fight he cannot win on strategy and on the evidence, so he is trying to win on tactics, using tactical moves that hammer on the fault lines in the unity of the parliamentary coalition.

The PPP has no strong women or men in leadership positions. In contrast Nawaz Sharif, leading the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, welcomes the impeachment fight, seeing it as an opportunity to humiliate Musharraf in public. He is holding the coalition’s feet to the fire on the impeachment issue. Once Musharraf realizes he cannot intimidate Sharif AND not break the coalition, he has no choice but to make a deal. If he attempts to defend himself in the National Assembly, he will certainly loose and risks criminal incarceration.

A Saudi aircraft could be on standby to take Musharraf into exile, but no news service has reported evidence that his family has made preparations to depart Pakistan.

Enter the Saudis. The head of Saudi intelligence, Prince Murqan, has been in Pakistan for two purposes this weekend. He has attempted to mediate Musharraf’s resignation and a smooth transition to a new President. The Saudis judge that a politically unstable Pakistan is not in their interests. They have relied on Pakistan for decades to provide security forces for the House of Saud, among other strategic assets.

Murqan’s second task is to offer relief to a faltering Pakistani economy. The Saudis are offering to establish an oil facility for Pakistan to enable it to meet its monthly imports of Saudi oil, about 110,000 barrels per day. The arrangement has a value of $5-$6 billion. Pakistan is almost completely dependent on Saudi oil, which for many years was provided at concessional rates. Apparently the oil facility is a bribe to persuade the Gilani government to treat Musharraf gently and agree to his demands.

The News reported on 18 August that a Saudi transport remains on the tarmac at Chaklala Pakistan Air Force Base, near Islamabad. Some reporters have speculated it is on standby to take Musharraf into exile. However, today the Saudis announced they will no longer accept political exiles from Pakistan. Actually the aircraft probably is on standby to take Prince Murqan home. The status of the negotiations and Saudi intervention is not known. What is known is that the Saudis believe economics are politics. The aircraft might yet carry Musharraf to Turkey or the UK.

Iran: No satellite was launched today. The initial news reports from Tehran reported Iran launched its first indigenously-built satellite using an indigenously built launch vehicle – rocket. Iranian TV showed footage of the launch of the Safir-e Omid (Messenger of Hope) satellite with a caption saying the satellite had been successfully launched into space.

It was not true. During this Watch, the government in Tehran issued a correction that only the rocket was launched successfully. It carried no payload.

Russia: For the record. Russian authorities announced they planned to equip Black Sea Fleet ships with nuclear warheads for their missiles. The US called this threat and the threat to place Polish cities on the Russian nuclear missile target list as “empty rhetoric.” Hmmm …

Note for new analysts: When a nation makes a threat and is known to have the capabilities to execute the threat as stated, it is not empty rhetoric or a bluff. When confirmed capabilities match the rhetoric, the rhetoric must not be dismissed as bluff. The analogy is to criminal behavior. When a criminal points a loaded gun at a victim, the victim is almost certain to die, if the victim thinks and acts as if the gun holder is bluffing. Loaded guns do not bluff. They do not necessarily shoot, but a bluff is a threat that is NOT backed by capability. A victim’s response to a loaded gun cannot be the same as to empty rhetoric.

Thus when a country makes a threat such as the Russians made against Poland, the appropriate response is different than if the country were making a threat without the capability to execute it. Bluffing is about getting something at no cost. That is different from a threat. A threat does not mean an attack is inevitable, but it requires a qualitatively more sophisticated response than a bluff.

Russia-Georgia: The Russian President reassured his American contacts that Russian forces would start withdrawing from Georgia today, according to the international media. None questioned what that signifies. Moreover, no news services noted any qualifications to the statement, such as “conditions dependent.” What this means is that the Russians will not withdraw if the security conditions are not satisfactory, in their definition.

Over the weekend, unidentified sappers destroyed a bridge on the main east-railroad line, which carries oil from Azerbaijan to Georgia’s Black Sea ports. Emergency crews, including from Azerbaijan, began work to restore the rail line in ten days.

Eyewitnesses told international press services that they saw Russian tanks digging in, by placing earthen field fortifications around the tanks in areas in central Georgia.

The Russians continue to insist these measures are to establish security for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Under the rubric of security measures, the Russians have expanded their perimeters south of the secessionist provinces and continued to destroy any infrastructure that might be useful in a future Georgian push to recapture the secessionist provinces.

The result of the Russian security measures has been to divide Georgia. Russian forces control all access to the west and northwest, as of 17 August. The spokesmen in Moscow insisted, "We are constantly encountering problems from the Georgian side, and everything will depend on how effectively and quickly these problems are resolved."

NightWatch does not expect the Russians to withdraw on 18 August, except some token elements. They will cite the Georgian armed harassment as the justification that the security measures are not yet effective. Moreover, the Russian leadership will not be seen as acceding to American demands any longer because that would undercut the international image Russia has cultivated in the past ten days. The Russians will not react precisely because this US administration says to.

On Sunday, 17 August, Russian armored elements with South Ossetians expanded their perimeter to the east of Tskhinvali, in Georgia proper. The buffer zone under Russian control extends about 20 km south of South Ossetia in all directions. Russian forces also seized a hydroelectric power plant (HPP) south of Abkhazia in western Georgia.

"We very well know that electricity of the Inguri HPP is supplied to houses of tens of thousands of Georgians and Abkhazians and realize that such strategically important facilities may become target for provocations or even terrorist acts. In order to ensure the uninterrupted work of the HPP and create conditions for the normal work of its personnel our peacekeepers have gone on a patrolling mission aimed at the protection of the station. Both Georgian and Abkhazian residents can stay calm - electricity will be supplied to their houses," said General Nogovitsyn, Deputy Chief of the General Staff.

Russia also disclosed today intelligence information that would justify any refusal to pull back Russian troops.

“According to reports received today from the reconnaissance section of the Russian peacekeepers, backed up by radio-intercept information, in the vicinity of Gori an armed group is being urgently formed, consisting of Georgians, Ukrainian nationalists of UNSO (Ukrainian National Self-Defense) and Chechen terrorists that are in Georgia. It is planned to dress them in Russian military uniforms and let them loose in Gori, where these bandits will take part in looting and the abuse of local residents, which is to be recorded on video-cameras and supplied to the world as an example of the "bestiality of the Russian military aggressors.”

Some factual information makes the report somewhat credible. Both Russia and Georgia have used armed gangs of irregulars. One Russian broadcast last week actually listed by nationality the “volunteers” who had joined the South Ossetian and Russian forces by the thousands. They included Chechens who worked with the Russians to suppress the Chechen uprising and Kabardino-Balkariyans, another Caucasus republic in Russia.

Georgia has used Chechen rebel mercenaries looking for jobs and Ukrainians to harass the Russians and the South Ossetian forces. Use of volunteers, not under military discipline, explains the reports of looting and mayhem on both sides.

History has not ended, in contradiction of the assertion by Francis Fukuyama. Rather it looks a lot like the past, but enhanced by modern automation and computers.

Ukraine: Over the weekend, President Yushchenko offered to link the Ukraine’s integrated air defense system to that of NATO, mimicking in style the Polish missile agreement. The Ukraine is desperate for some sign from the West that it will not face the same fate as Georgia -- lots of talk after Russian tanks have invaded.

Note: American strategic planners need to start considering how the US might defend the Ukraine because it is the next Russian target, based on the Russian reaction to the new Polish missile deal. American and NATO intelligence must review the indicators and training patterns of the Russians relative to the Crimea and other parts of the Ukraine.

The Russian military commentators stated that Russia has exercised its plans to invade Georgia, starting in 2006. Aside from raising questions about the mediocrity of execution of a Russian invasion rehearsed in annual exercises during the past three years, the statements highlight the point that the Russians prepare well a head of time and signal their intentions. There is no mystery here. NATO and US warning staffs, if any remain, must brush up old indicator lists to evaluate the duration and state of Russian preparations for moves against the Ukraine. That is to say, have they exercised any scenarios for invading the Ukraine in the past five years?

While they are at it, the US and NATO Warning staffs, if any still exist, must make similar evaluations relative to the Baltic states that are now members of NATO. Does NATO have an indicator list of what to look for and collection target lists for Russian and Belarusian preparations for attacking Lithuania? If not, the lapse is almost criminal; this work is overdue. It is what alliances do for the members.

Venezuela-Russia: President Chavez said Sunday that Russian President Medvedev wants to send a Russian naval “fleet” to visit Venezuela. "Russia has informed us they intend to visit Venezuela, that is, the intention that a Russian fleet should come to the Caribbean," Chavez said on his weekly radio program.

"I told the president (Medvedev), 'If you're coming to the Caribbean, we'll welcome you,'" Chavez said, adding that the Russian naval fleet would pay "a friendly and working" visit to Venezuela.

Chavez provided no dates for the Russian Navy visit. His statement indicates the Russians have options for showing the flag in the American hemisphere that they never had before. Cuba remains open to them, but access to Venezuela is new and dangerous because it provides strategic depth that Cuba lacks and access to support on a scale Cuba could never provide.

End of NightWatch for 17 August.