NightWatch

For the Night of 12 August 2008

North Korea-South Korea: Officials from both states have reacted professionally to the ship collision this morning (12 August) between a North Korean fishing boat and a South Korean sand dredge off the west coast. The North Korean craft sank and two crew members died, according to a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman. An investigation has been ordered.

China: For the record. Three security personnel were stabbed to death and another injured on Tuesday (12 August) in an attack at a checkpoint near Kashi City, in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, according to local security authorities. The attack occurred at the road checkpoint in Yamanya Town of Shule County, said the police. This was the second attack in two days.

Thailand: Update. Thai authorities have moved to seize the assets, revoke the diplomatic passports and seek the extradition of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife, Khunying Potjaman. Both have skipped bail and fled to London.

India-Kashmir: The death toll from violence in Kashmir reached 19 in the second day of Muslim protests.

Police killed six persons in an attempt to stop thousands of Muslim protesters from the Kashmir Valley from crossing the Line of Control into Pakistani controlled Kashmir, the Kashmir state government said. The protesters were seeking an alternate route out of the valley, to break a Hindu blockade of the main highway from the south.

Pakistan: Security. Thirteen people including seven Pakistan Air Force (PAF) personnel were killed Tuesday morning when a remote-controlled roadside bomb exploded near a PAF bus in Peshawar, North West Frontier Province. Twelve people were wounded of which five are stated to be in critical condition.

Politics. A pro-Musharraf politician told the Daily Times today that President Pervez Musharraf has decided in principle to resign as President and will make the announcement on 14 August, Independence Day.

The Daily Times reported that if he resigns ahead of the impeachment process, the ruling Coalition will allow him to remain in the Presidency long enough to wrap up his affairs and move to his newly built home in Chak Shahzad on the outskirts of Islamabad, and possibly leave the country a few weeks hence. The Coalition has promised not to arrest him and permit him safe passage out of the country if he resigns.

Pakistan Peoples’ Party leader Asif Zardari said today that President Musharraf is “a guest for a few days” and the new Pakistani president will be elected after consultation with all the parties in the ruling coalition. “As soon as the new President of Pakistan takes the oath, he will abolish Article 58(2b) of the Constitution.” Zardari said in an interview with Geo News TV. He said that the Pakistan Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate were not involved in politics and would not intervene in politics in future either.

Today North West Frontier Province voted for Musharraf to resign. Yesterday Punjab passed a resolution calling for his resignation. Baluchistan and Sindh are expected to follow suit on 13 August.

Comment: The significance of the provincial assembly votes is that they represent a significant change in political atmosphere relative to the members of the provincial assemblies and the National Assembly who elected Musharraf President, last October before the general election.

The President is not elected by a direct popular vote, but by the members of all provincial assemblies and the National Assembly acting as an electoral college. The Constitution requires the general elections for the assemblies to take place first so that their vote for the President is consistent with the latest expression of the will of the electorate.

Last October, Musharraf turned the system backwards by ordering that he be elected by the outgoing assembly members first, four months before the general elections. The assemblies complied because they were stacked with Musharraf’s associates, almost all of whom were swept from office in February’s general elections. His election was prima facie unconstitutional.

The provincial votes of no confidence have no juridical significance but politically they indicate that had Musharraf abided by the constitution and run for President after the February general elections, he would not have been overwhelmingly rejected. The provincial votes also have been overwhelmingly in favor of his resignation so that impeachment would be a foregone conclusion, if Musharraf contests the charges.

Seeing is believing because Musharraf has never been inclined to avoid a fight. He proclaimed last year that he is not a quitter and would abide by the results of a vote of no confidence. The Coalition has called his bluff. However, there have been other misleading statements leaked from the presidency about Musharraf’s contrite and cooperative state of mind. Resignation would not be easy for a person who remains convinced only he can save Pakistan, as he has stated in public often since February. However, most of his political allies and especially the Army under General Kayani’s leadership appear to be abandoning him and are pressuring him to leave rather than risk summary dismissal for constitutional crimes.

Lebanon: The government has won a vote of confidence, approving a policy statement that recognizes Hezbollah's right to use all means possible to regain Israeli-occupied land claimed by Lebanon, namely the Shebaa Farms.

One hundred members of the 128-seat parliament voted in support of the cabinet proposal on Tuesday, allowing the cabinet to finally start work.

"One hundred MPs have given their confidence to the cabinet, five voted against and two abstained," Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, announced to the assembly. The policy statement recognizes the right of Lebanon, its government, people and armed movements to use all means possible to regain land claimed by Lebanon, a reference to the Shebaa Farms and nearby Israeli-held parts of Ghajjar village.

Ownership of the Shebaa Farms, located in the southeast where Lebanon, Israel and Syria meet, is a complex issue that will not be settled by this resolution. The significance is that the Lebanon government is now more hostile to Israel than before 2006. President Michel Suleiman is pro-Syrian; Hezbollah has veto power and greater representation in parliament; and now Lebanon has authorized Hezbollah to fight for a disputed territory in the name of the Lebanese government.

The Western effort to have Hezbollah disarmed and convert itself into a strictly political movement has been dealt a significant setback. Parliament just designated Hezbollah as an armed agent of the government of Lebanon. This encourages exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and the Israelis.

Security. Three people died in fighting in Tripoli today … again. Note: this looks related to criminal smuggling to Syria and unrelated to politics in Lebanon.

Russia-France-Georgia: Russian President Medvedev announced a halt to Russian operations in Georgia today. The immediate announcement did not include a ceasefire and some skirmishing was reported through the day.

Observing a most perfect punctilio, the Russians delayed implementing a ceasefire until the Georgians agreed to the six point agreement arranged by French President Sarkozy. The provisions are

- An agreement to refrain from the use of force;

- All hostilities to cease;

- Humanitarian agencies are to be given free access;

- Georgian forces are to return to their permanent bases;

- Russian forces will withdraw to their positions as of 6 August, but Russian peacekeepers will remain in place and continue to function;

- International negotiations will be arranged towards finding a permanent settlement.

The Russian General Staff provided a fairly reasonable wrap-up of force status at day’s end.

-In the west, near Abkhazia, Georgian militias have been disarmed. Regular Georgian forces have withdrawn, abandoning the last footholds Georgia held in Abkhazia. All of Abkhazia is under Abkhazian control for the first time in nearly 20 years. The Russians control the western part of Georgia as far south as the port of Poti, in Georgia proper. They have not withdrawn as of this Watch.

-Opposite South Ossetia, the South Ossetians control their entire province. The Russians have advanced to the outskirts of Gori, Stalin’s birthplace, but have not advanced nor withdrawn. The Russians reported that south of Gori, the Georgians have assembled a division echelon force of three infantry brigades, an artillery brigade and an armored brigade to defend Tbilisi. (Western open sources do not credit the Georgians with a brigade of armor, only a single tank battalion.)

-The Georgian air force no longer exists as a combat capable force and the Georgian Navy lost one fourth of its missile boats.

Georgia withdrew from the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia insisted that Georgia would still fall within the air defense umbrella of Russia. The US canceled an annual military exercise with Russia to protest Russian operations in Georgia. Hmm…

Comment: Russian officials refuse to talk with Georgian officials and do not mention them by name. The ceasefire does not represent the political end state. Two Russian reports state that Russian officials intend to file criminal charges against Georgian President Saakashvili for genocide with the international criminal court. They want him out.

The other issue that is not included in the ceasefire agreement is the Russian insistence that Georgia must partially disarm. Three reports cited Russian officials who stated this requirement separate from the ceasefire talks.

The Russians appear determined to further humiliate Georgia so that its condition of dependency on the sufferance of Russia is obvious and pervasive. For example, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are independent states in all but name, signifying that Georgia’s territorial integrity is dependent on Russian good will. In international law, a government that cannot defend its national territory and its people is not legitimate and may be de-recognized and overthrown.

Two important points are whether the Russian government will back Medvedev’s ceasefire and whether the Prime Minister and the General Staff have the same understanding of the issues that Sarkozy has presented to Saakashvili. Most of the terms of truce agreement are vague; there is no provision for temporary dispute settlement in the event of exchanges of fire. Much will depend on the discipline of the Georgian troops, i.e., will they stop shooting at the Russians as ordered. This evening, the answer must be the Georgian command structure does not work well. Small groups continue to fire at the Russians, even in Tskhinvali, South Ossetia. Meanwhile Russian reconnaissance flights over Georgia will continue, in support of the Russian peacekeepers.

Georgia does not seem in imminent danger of occupation at this time, but its independence has been irrevocably compromised. The Russians have no need to bother to do anything else, unless provoked.

Mauritania: The military junta that overthrew Mauritania's government last week has adopted a law transferring the power of the presidency to the head of the junta. The 11-article law announced in a communiqué issued Tuesday confers all the rights of the country's highest office to the army general that led the coup.

The statement also said the 6 August coup was brought on by the deteriorating condition of daily life in Mauritania, the president's stonewalling of various government institutions and his firing of the chiefs of the armed forces.

Apparently President Abdallahi’s brief did not cover the fact that the commander in chief has the authority but not the power to remove his military commanders. Business interests have ignored the political contretemps. Oil, gold and iron ore producers say the coup has had no effect on operations whatsoever.

This is a study in democracy.

End of NightWatch for 12 August.