NightWatch

For the Night of 11 August 2008

Thailand: Update. Ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has said he will not return to Thailand from the UK.

In a statement released to the Thai media, Thaksin said he and his wife would remain in the UK, "where democracy is more important." Thaksin is on bail over corruption charges but failed to make a scheduled Bangkok court appearance on Monday. His wife has already been convicted of corruption.

Thaksin returned to Thailand in March to defend his good name. His return to the UK indicates he finally realizes that the power elite in Bangkok does not want him and his populist appeal. He is now a fugitive in Thailand.

India-Kashmir: A senior separatist and four others have been killed after police in Jammu and Kashmir State fired shots to disperse stone-throwing Muslims. Sheikh Abdul Aziz was among thousands of protesters who marched towards the Line of Control (LoC) dividing the region. Dozens of others were hurt. They were supporting a move by fruit growers in the mainly Muslim Kashmir valley to take produce across the LoC.

The Muslim activists staged the march towards Pakistan to protest the Hindu truck blockade at Jammu which continues. They defied police road blocks to try to open a road from Pakistan to obtain supplies when the firing incident took place.

Pakistan: Today the Daily Times published a detailed article refuting the allegation that President Musharraf created “a slush fund” to siphon off Coalition Support Funds for special projects. The subtext is that Zardari and his men do not know what they are talking about. The article carried no sources, the usual indication it was dictated by the office of the presidency.

Sindh, Punjab and NWFP Assemblies' will hold sessions today regarding the President’s impeachment. There was more fighting in Bajaur Agency today with no significant results, except for those killed.

Russia-Georgia: The Russians invaded Georgia proper today and escalated their demands.

Ground forces: Russian forces from Abkhazia and South Ossetia today moved into Georgia proper. They appear to have created or are in the process of creating a buffer zone just outside both secessionist provinces to deny staging areas for Georgian counterattacks, so they announced.

Georgian Security Council Secretary Lomaiaa in his 2100 (Tbilisi local time) hourly TV update clarified the Russian ground positions and actions at the end of the day.

-He said,” that as for Russian troops positioned on the main east-west road at Gori (south of the South Ossetia conflict zone) there was "no sign so far of them having any intention to start moving in any direction … Russian occupation units are at the city of Gori. They have not entered the city of Gori but simply blocked the main road and are at the city of Gori, at the bridge. “

-As for the Russian armed forces that came in from Abkhazia, “They positioned themselves in Samegrelo

Province, effectively controlling the bridges and crossroads at the Zugdidi-Poti junction. These are mainly landing units (sic), as we are told from the locations by employees of the Interior Ministry, heads of local administration and presidential representatives. They have not entered Samtredia or Kutaisi, which are located in Imereti Province adjacent to Samegrelo. You know that there were rumors that they had.”

-"They are not entering administrative buildings. They do not come into contact with people. When there is contact, they are causing no harm to people. They are not obstructing the movement of transport. It became known just a few minutes ago that they have left the Senaki base, they have withdrawn from the Senaki base. They are also positioned at the Zugdidi-Poti junction. As regards the town of Zugdidi itself, effectively on every street, every junction there is armored hardware, in large numbers, and armed persons.”

The Russians appear to have committed two task groups of about 10,000 or more men in each zone. A Russian press source reported there were 9,000 soldiers and 350 armored vehicles in the Poti-Senaki area south of Abkhazia. The force in the South Ossetia area is at least that large.

The total Georgian ground forces strength is just under 27,000. The President ordered all formations to fall back on the defense of Tbilisi today. However, remaining Georgian helicopters attacked into South Ossetia. Later, they were reported destroyed by Russian air attacks. The Russians and other sources continue to report sniper fire by Georgian “raiders.”

The Georgian contingent from Iraq arrived in Tbilisi today aboard US C-5 transports.

Air forces. A deputy Chief of the General Staff clarified the air campaign to date.

“According to information from the conflict zone, Russian aircraft from 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army also are delivering strikes against Georgian positions.  That army has around 60 Su-24 front bombers, 100 MiG-29 fighters, 60 Su-27 fighters, 100 Su-25 attack aircraft, 40 L-39 light attack aircraft and 30 Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft as well as 75 Mi-24 attack helicopters and other aviation equipment.”

“Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-24 front bombers were placed in action for this.  In fact, they destroyed all of Georgia’s combat aviation at its base locations.  They delivered a missile and bombing strike against the military airfield near Tbilisi and bombed the Tbilaviastroy Plant in a suburb of the Georgian capital, where Georgian Su-25 attack aircraft were being repaired and modernized.” The Russian announced today that they achieved complete air superiority.

Wikipedia’s summary of Georgia’s air force includes 17 Su-25 attack aircraft, 6 jet trainers and 40 or so helicopters of various kinds.

Politics and diplomacy. . The Russians continued to refuse a ceasefire they said because the Georgians continue to fire. Several press accounts carried a new Russian demand that they would not stop operations until the Georgians “disarmed.” This is the first day that language has been used. Tbilisi is being flooded with NATO and European Union dignitaries, evidently to deter a Russian attack.

Speaker of the Federation Council Sergey Mironov charged today that “Georgian aggression against South Ossetia was masterminded by ‘overseas patrons’ of Saakashvili.” He said he was confident, however, that the crisis will not result in a head-on clash between Russia and the US.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov thanked Israel’s First Deputy Prime Minister Livni for supporting the Russian action in South Ossetia. Livni’s comments were more elliptical than Lavrov implied, but Livni initiated the telephone conversation and did not criticize the Russians. She endorsed Lavrov’s proposal for an agreement on non-use of force. Iran also supported the Russian peace enforcement operations.

Comment: Today the Russians tested international reaction to an outright military occupation of Georgia. The reaction to date will encourage them that they can take as much or all of Georgia they choose, if they can afford the losses.

The continued shooting by Georgian snipers, reports of artillery fire and today’s helicopter attack provides the justification for Russian escalation. Today’s Russian movements signify that the carefully crafted goals – no forces beyond the South Ossetia border and an agreement on non-use of force – articulated by Foreign Minister Lavrov have been superseded.

The Russians today changed enlarged the goals. The new requirement to disarm is even more open ended than “peace enforcement.” There are no Georgian forces to prevent them, for example, from linking the two buffer zones they created today by moving against the intermediate towns of Samtredia, Kutaisi and Kashuri, two of which are former Soviet garrison towns. Their military planners would, no doubt, argue that a coherent integrated defensive line along the railroad and the highway would make good military sense to consolidate peace enforcement gains. That would put half of Georgia under Russian control.

Disarmament means the disbanding of the Georgian armed forces. That is a task associated with surrender and military occupation. That will not happen so expect more fighting and another expansion of the Russian zone of control.

The logic of this scenario is that eventually when the Russians reach the outskirts of Tbilisi and defeat the Georgian defenders, they will encourage a popular uprising to oust Saakashvili and replace him with a government that will welcome the peacekeepers. “Disarmament” puts this scenario in play. Putin said today the operations will be carried to their logical conclusion.

The danger is the Russians appear to be viewing Georgian operations a lot like those in Chechnya. None of Georgia’s allies have announced any action that might cause the Russians to hesitate or think otherwise. If there is only strong diplomatic language from the West not backed up by credible military moves, Georgia’s independence will be decided in Moscow.

Cyber war. ZDNet and other internet security services have posted details of what the Georgian government has described as the “coordinated cyber attack” against Georgia’s internet infrastructure, including the compromise of government web sites and a continuing DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack. According to a Georgian government spokesman and a cyber security blog, all internet traffic to Georgia’s key servers is being routed through Russian or Turkish servers. The blog described the attacks as a “full cyber-siege.”

Apparently the attacks by Russian hackers began several weeks before the military intervention. They peaked on Friday, 8 August, when the Russian intervention began. In one attack, a hacker posted on President Saakashvili’s web site a slide show of pictures of Saakashvili juxtaposed to pictures of Hitler in similar poses.

The Russian attacks reportedly feature a large number of ‘average internet users” who have been supplied with denial of service tools and the targets for them. They have defaced web sites and taken over servers. The Georgian government announced that several Georgian state computer servers have been under external control since shortly before Russia’s armed intervention began on Friday, leaving its online presence in disarray.

While the official website of President Saakashvili has become available again – from Atlanta, the central government site as well as the homepages for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense remain down. Some commercial websites have also been hijacked.

Georgian hackers also have been attempting denial of service attacks against South Ossetian and Abkhazian hackers. Someone succeeded in bringing down RIA Novosti, the Russian news agency, for 24 hours. Interfax was not available in English on this Watch.

One Russian’s views. Excerpts from a commentary published today by Yuriy Netkachev, general-lieutenant (two-stars) retired, military professor. Netkachev is a former commander of Russian forces in the Transcaucasus, former Commander of the 58^th Army and former Commander of the 14^th Army.

The opening observations stress that the Russian leadership and the General Staff underestimated the Georgians. He derided pre-operational military jokes about an invasion of Georgia being a “walk in the park.” His key points included the Russians failed to detect the improvements in the Georgian armed forces in the last four years and, more importantly, they failed to prevent them. He noted the outcome was foreordained: “the Saakashvili regime will be punished.” He asked at what price.

He noted that Russian exercise Kavkaz (Caucasus) 2008 was the 58^th Army’s dress rehearsal for the intervention that took place over the weekend. He asks how are they performing and answers, “Not too well, unfortunately.” His argument proceeds by a series of questions, paraphrased below.

1. How come the Russians lost a strategic bomber and a Su-25 attack aircraft to Georgian air defenses in the first hours of fighting?

2. How come the deputy commander of the 58^th Army was wounded on the first day of fighting? Netkachev asked further, “Why was General Khrulev operating within the troops' combat formations?  Where was the security force?  And indeed was there one?  Khrulev was accompanied in his vehicle by journalists.  The TV guys were probably constantly calling people.  Yet it is already clear that the Georgian special forces, trained as they are by US instructors, react to emissions from telephones and radio sets.  Where is the principle of the secure command and control of troops?  The army commander is directing thousands of people, does he have any time or need for journalists in an engagement?”

3. When and how did the Georgians get proficient at flying the Su-25 and at firing missile air defenses? Netkachev said he thought it obvious that they were helped by Ukrainian mercenaries.

4. How come Russian forces went to war half dressed, in tee shirts and without combat gear? He wrote that Russian military incompetence was broadcast around the world by Russian TV. He also criticized the Navy for hold anti-terror exercises with the Georgians instead of preparing for a proper military blockade.

He concluded that the Russian General Staff has failed to learn the lessons of the Chechen War.

Bolivia: Update. President Morales has claimed victory in yesterday’s (10 August) referendum on whether he should continue in power. Unofficial results gave Morales a convincing win, and he promised to continue his reforms, including the nationalization of key industries. Four of six opposition governors, who have led protests against the president and are demanding more autonomy, also won the right to stay in office.

End of NightWatch for 11 August.