NightWatch

For the Night of 9 August 2008

Russia-South Ossetia-Georgia: The struggle continues, which is a surprise.

Ground forces: The South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, and its environs continue to be the focus of the ground fighting. Both sides claimed total control on Saturday (9 August). Georgian forces made a morning and a late afternoon attempt to recapture the parts of Tskhinvali from which Russian and Ossetian forces drove them on Friday. Georgian authorities announced their intention to deploy the 2,000 personnel arriving from Iraq to the South Ossetia front as quickly as possible.

The fighting seems to have swung in favor of Georgia for a time because by mid-afternoon Russia announced the dispatch of 2,000 airborne troops to reinforce the “battalion task forces” that a spokesman said were in South Ossetia.

For old hands, the list of units contributing personnel to the reinforcement was a trip down memory lane. They included the 76 Airborne Division at Pskov, the 98^th Airborne Division at Ivanovo, the 45^th Independent Reconnaissance Regt and the 7^th Airborne Assault Brigade. The Airborne Divisions, abbreviated VDV, have always been the quick reaction crisis force. The Russians announced they would arrive by truck with their standard equipment. The spokesman said one element of the 76^th had already arrived at Tskhinvali. Russian press reported Cossack soldiers had arrived to support the Ossetians but no source has reported seeing them.

During this Watch, a Georgian official source admitted that Russian special forces (Spetsnaz), infantry and airborne forces succeeded in capturing Tskhinvali on Saturday afternoon. The official said the Georgians withdrew. Russian has admitted sustaining 15 “peacekeepers” killed and 70 wounded. Georgia has admitted 50 soldiers killed and 450 wounded.

Comment: Both Georgia and Russia recognize that control of Tskhinvali is the strategic military objective. The reinforcements indicate neither side has secured its control. No ceasefire is likely until one side or the other controls it. Last night the Russian counterattack appeared to have driven the Georgians from the town, but they regrouped and have attacked twice. By nightfall, the Russians appeared to have regained the upper hand.

The Russians announced their ground objective is limited: to push the Georgians back to the positions they held on 6 August. Russian media also are hewing closely to the propaganda line that the Russian ground forces are acting in the role of peacekeepers and protectors of Russian citizens. The Russians deny any intention to occupy Georgia and the forces are acting consistently, thus far.

The use of VDV forces is normal for quick reaction at the outset of a fight, to hold ground for about 36 hours until relieved. Instead the Russians used a combined arms unit for the initial response. This unit appears to have been on standby in the North Caucasus Military District for contingencies to reinforce the Russian peacekeepers that had been patrolling the border between South Ossetia and Georgia before the Georgian offensive. That would explain the speed of their arrival in South Ossetia from the Russian North Caucasus Military District.

However, that force has not been capable of holding gains in Tskhinvali against Georgian assaults. The only other Russian units apparently ready and capable of rapid deployment are the VDV forces and the Spetsnaz. That suggests the Russians were surprised by and not ready for the Georgian attack because a large Russian ground army is based just across the border in North Ossetia. The airborne troops would hold ground until more powerful units prepare and move southward to consolidate gains against additional Georgian attacks.

Georgia’s Land Forces contain 21,700 personnel organized in five infantry brigades and support units. Georgia has one T-72 equipped tank battalion. The Russian forces in the North Caucasus Military Region are comparable to a western army corps in strength, with at least three motorized rifle divisions totaling over 50,000 men and supporting units.

Air forces: The Georgians claim to have downed ten Russian jets, including a TU-22. The Russians have acknowledged losing two fighters to Georgian air defenses. They have made no claims of downing Georgian aircraft in the air, but have destroyed at least four on the ground, according to press service reports. Georgian air force aircraft have not been reported in combat on 9 August.

One Georgian press source claimed the Georgians used SA-5 surface-to-air missiles purchased from the Ukraine to shoot down the TU-22. The Georgians were not known to possess SA-5s according to open sources. Today, Russia denounced the Ukraine for having helped Georgia, without being specific. The Ukraine announced strong support for Georgia. It did not rule out military support but said it was watching the situation. Ukraine and Georgia both seek to join NATO.

As for Russian targets, they include the port town of Poti and the military base at Senaki, just east of Poti. Gori, on the road due south of Tskhinvali, is the garrison town for a Georgian infantry brigade, an artillery brigade and the one tank battalion. That explains the repeated Russian air strikes on it. A few other towns south of Tskhinvali have been bombed as have military bases near Tbilisi the Georgian capital.

No reliable sources have reported air strikes against Tbilisi or the port of Batumi which once was an important Soviet naval base. Both Tbilisi and Batumi airports, for example, are functioning normally, according to Georgian press. They would seem to be likely targets in the event Russia decides it must escalate further.

Naval forces: During this Watch the Russians notified the US that they ordered the deployment of ships from the Black Sea Fleet to the waters off Georgia. This appears to be the initial phase of a blockade. Georgia reported one cargo ship has already been turned away from a Georgian port by a Russian Navy ship.

This move is a significant escalation move because Georgia has no navy as such. The Russians have taken a position to destroy Georgia, if President Saakashvili refuses to withdraw Georgian forces from South Ossetia.

Politics and Diplomacy: Georgian President Saakashvili repeatedly requested a ceasefire since early afternoon and asked for American and NATO help. Russian President Medvedev said he has received no ceasefire proposal. He declared a state of war, or belligerency is the term of international law, which gives him extra discretionary powers but did not impose martial law. Most of Georgia is not yet affected by the fighting.

Prime Minister Putin arrived in the North Ossetian capital of and the Russian garrison town of Vladikavkaz today to “assess” and to direct the operations. Other Russians said there will be no ceasefire until the Georgians pull back to their positions before the offensive. The Russian representative to NATO, Rogozin who is a protégé of Putin, said Saakashvili has made the last mistake in his political career.

Assessment: Neither side appears to be doing as well as it expected. The fighting has lasted a day longer than the relative balance of forces would have suggested. The Russian intervention was too late to prevent up to 2,000 Ossetian civilian casualties. Georgia admitted about 55 civilian deaths, but has not publicized total casualties.

President Saakashvili apparently expected the West would intervene politically to prevent the Russian military intervention, but his forces did not execute the swift capture and consolidation of Tskhinvali that strategy required. Nor could they hold ground against Russian air and armor attacks. Today he appeared to be pleading for a ceasefire, which the Russians refused, most likely because they have not yet consolidated an acceptable military position in South Ossetia. The navy move and the airborne reinforcements are the strongest evidence that the Russians underestimated Georgian resistance.

The Russians appear caught by surprise by the size and timing of the offensive, but had on standby an emergency reaction force ready to roll to support peacekeepers and prevent Georgia from achieving an absolute victory. It was enough to prevent an Ossetian rout. One of the unexplained developments is how a battalion of Russian peacekeepers on the South Ossetian border with Georgia were caught by surprise and overrun or bypassed on 7 August.

The Russians quickly achieved air superiority, but apparently forgot the lessons of the 1973 Yom Kippur War that an effective surface-to-air missile envelope is a substitute for an air force. Assuming the Georgians have the SA-5 as they claim, Russian intelligence did not know that and the Russian air force did not suppress Georgia’s electronic environment. Georgia’s downing of Russian combat aircraft is the biggest surprise of the conflict.

A final point is that this conflict has clarified that Putin is in charge, if anyone doubted.

Outlook: Late on Saturday night the Georgians admitted that the Russians had control of Tskhinvali. The commitment of reinforcements suggests another round of fighting for Tskhinvali is being set up, for Sunday morning.

Russia has not yet completed the destruction of Georgia’s combat capabilities, so bombings will continue. Russian combat aircraft will attack mixed civil-military targets to retaliate for Ossetian deaths as well as to ratchet up the pressure on the Georgian government.

The movement of Russian naval ships serves the political strategy of increasing the hardship on the Georgian civilian population to ratchet up pressure on President Saakashvili for having subjected the population to Russian attacks.

The situation is heading for a ceasefire and negotiations within the coming week, unless the Russians require a change in government in Georgia. It is not yet clear is whether the overthrow of Saakashvili will be one of the Russian punitive political objectives. As Georgian resistance persists, the Russians might make Saakashvili’s replacement a condition for not invading Georgia. Saakashvilii’s resignation under Russian pressure would humiliate NATO, the US and pro-western elements in Georgia.

End of NightWatch for 9 August.