NightWatch

For the Night of 4 August 2008

China: Authorities in Xinjiang Province announced sweeping security checks of transport on 5 August after assailants crashed a van into a police station in a border town in Xinjiang. National security authorities blamed the attack on Uighur separatists.

The significance of the attack is that it occurred despite the Chinese security crackdown in Tibet and Xinjiang earlier this summer. Chinese security is not as tight as they need the world to believe.

Philippines: Troops on Mindanao were ordered to remain on alert against attacks by Muslim rebels after the Philippine Supreme Court en banc issued a temporary restraining order to prevent the government from signing the final draft agreement on the Muslim” ancestral domain.” Under the agreement, a Muslim homeland area known as the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao would be expanded in exchange for an end to recent attacks.

Christian politicians from several regions of western Mindanao that would loose villages to the Muslim autonomous region under the agreement requested the restraining order on the grounds that they were not consulted by the government about jurisdictional changes that would alter their constituencies. The agreement will eventually be signed but the boundaries are likely to change.

NightWatch research shows that in the early 1900’s during the US administration of the Philippines, Mindanao’s population was 90% Muslim/Moro and was spread across 90% of the island. By 2000, Mindanao’s population was 10% Muslim and restricted to some of the westernmost provinces of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago. This is the result of 100 years of internal migration supported and facilitated by Philippine governments offering land to Christians willing to resettle in Mindanao.

After four decades of Muslim insurgency, the government in Manila agreed to create the Muslim autonomous region in 1989 by holding local referenda in all Mindanao provinces on whether to join the autonomous region. The six provinces in the autonomous region -- only three of which are on Mindanao -- represent a small fraction of Muslim lands compared to the US colonial period. The new agreement does not signify an end to skirmishes or even atrocities, but the Moros have lost the fight for their ancestral homeland and are trying to cling to a remnant.

Bangladesh: In today’s municipal elections, election commissioner Shakhawat Hussain reported a high turnout and no violence. "We think the turnout will be more than 70 percent as there was huge presence of women voters. There was a festival-like atmosphere with no incidents of violence," Hussain told Agence France-Presse. “It's the most disciplined, clean and transparent vote the country has ever seen. There were no fake votes or intimidation by candidates. Barring some slow voting due to the new voters list, the poll was a huge success."

Authorities said the polls were a key test of a digital electoral register designed to put an end to vote-rigging problems that prompted the army to step in and impose a state of emergency in January 2007. Authorities said the new list of 80.5 million voters, which took a year to compile, had eliminated more than 12.7 million fake names.

The military-backed government will assess this as proof that its harsh political clean-up measures during the past 18 months have been successful. This success should help ensure the regional elections in October will be held as scheduled. Democracy took a step forward.

India-Afghanistan: Indian Prime Minister Singh announced that the government will send Afghanistan an additional $450 million in aid for development projects, Reuters reported today. India is involved in training Afghan police and diplomats, building hospitals and road construction, plus supporting trade and services.

The bombing of the Indian Embassy now blamed on Pakistani intelligence plus the Indian commitment to stay the course will reinforce those in Pakistan who believe that India is encircling Pakistan. The Indian action is likely to be followed by a reaction from Pakistani elements in the form of increased incidents along the Line of Control in Kashmir and violence in the Afghan provinces bordering Pakistan.

Pakistan: An important political leader in Karachi warned the residents against attempts to "Talibanize" the city and urged President and Prime Minister Gilani to take action, according to a local news service today and Pakistan's Dawn newspaper. The leader cited incidents where groups tried to impose Taliban-style, gun-enforced Sharia law in Karachi neighborhoods, including Nazimabad, Gulbahar, Shah Faisal Colony and Liaquatabad.

The leader is a protégé of Musharraf. This is the first report that the Taliban movement is succeeding in expanding to non-Pashtun lands east of the Indus River. Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city and contains about 12.5 million people. It is organized into 18 towns, which include the four neighborhoods mentioned. The city’s mixed religious and ethnic population regularly erupts in neighborhood violence over local issues. Rioters seem consistently to target Kentucky Fried Chicken outlets for burning along with vehicles and some shops.

A search could not produce details of the ethnic composition of the four neighborhoods, but the best guess is that they are poor Pashtun residential areas. The politician might be exaggerating conditions to help build the case for a strong man government.

Dawn also reported today remarks by President Musharraf in which he blamed India for an increase in security problems in Baluchistan. Speaking at a lunch hosted by Baluchistan Governor Nawab Zulfikar Ali Magsi at the Governor House, Musharraf said, “I am 1,000 percent certain that the elements involved in target killings and subversive activities are being financed and trained by foreign elements that do not want peace in the country.”

This is a customary, thinly veiled reference to India and the Afghan government. Musharraf is attempting to correct the balance of international publicity which has tilted against Pakistani intelligence because of the US proof of Pakistani involvement in the Indian Embassy bombing in Kabul. The Baluchistan insurgency is at a low-level with occasional attacks that receive national news coverage. In the politics of symmetry, any Indian involvement justifies Pakistani counter measures in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

Musharraf’s accusations feeds the widespread public belief that Pakistan always is betrayed by its friends except the Chinese and is the victim of large international conspiracies. NightWatch assesses his speeches in the past two days show he is continuing to build the case for his return to power.

Meanwhile, the elected government is trying to prevent the collapse of the parliamentary coalition. Federal Law Minister Farooq H Naek said today the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) had decided to invite all judges deposed by President Musharraf last November to resume their duties after taking a fresh oath of office. He said that all arrears and benefits would be paid to the deposed judges but they would be required to take a fresh from President Musharraf under the Constitution, he said.

This is the proposal that the PPP will bring to the discussions on 5 August with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. It falls far short of Nawaz Sharif’s position that they are entitled to reinstatement before the next steps in political normality can be taken, by which he means impeachment of Musharraf. Nevertheless, Nawaz does not yet appear ready to break with the PPP in the parliamentary coalition, but that time is coming fairly soon.

Afghanistan: NightWatch is compiling the data on the fighting in June. The NightWatch sample indicates there were 324 violent incidents that contained losses or destruction of property in July, compared to 314 in June. That is a new record.

Comment: The New York Times today ran a misleading report that conveyed the theme that the Taliban are ragtag fighters matching the best in the West. The Times reporter accepted at face value a number of nonsensical assertions made by a Taliban spokesman that presented the Taliban as the underdog and the victim.

Among the most absurd was the assertion that the Taliban operations require little financing and are low level and patient. The level and nature of the fighting in the past two months require a reliable and elaborate logistics operation because the Taliban have no fire discipline. At the same time, they are using rocket-propelled grenades, rockets, explosives and mortars with greater frequency than any time since the fall of the Taliban regime in November 2001 and show no signs of ever running out.

These are not ragtag fighters. The older leaders were US trained during the fight against the Soviets. More recently, well informed sources reported that retired Pakistani officers have provided guidance and training. The tactics in the current offensive show more discipline and complexity, especially the attack in Nangarhar in which nine US soldiers died. They have sufficient operational and strategic sophistication to thwart efforts to determine the level of coordination.

In late March they published a few details of their current operation plan, Operation Ebrat, which the combat data indicates many groups follow. Their steady expansion into new districts and provinces and the continuing discovery of large arms caches in provinces otherwise free of violence evidences planning, coordination and effective preparation.

They are not mounting a hit and run operation, as those terms are used in the West. The consistent theme is to discredit the administration in Kabul and its NATO protectors by showing they cannot maintain security at the lowest levels of administration. One of the distinguishing features of the offensive is the number of times Taliban fighters using trucks and motorbikes have seized district centers and held them until superior ground and air power forced them to withdraw. In the last two months, the data shows an increased number of incidents in which Taliban fighters have stood ground against NATO units in firefights, again until air power arrived.

The Taliban are mostly Pashtun tribal fighters who live in Afghanistan. They have been reinforced since late June by personnel from Pakistan, but outsiders do not constitute the main strength. The article suggested they recruit mainly from Pakistan. That is simply false.

The article repeated as news a few facts that the Taliban publicize on their web site, but overall the reporter seems to have forgotten the anti-government fighters are led by the same Taliban leaders who operated a brutish criminal cartel from Kabul in the name of Islam. The article is biased and uncritical of self-serving Taliban claims, which can easily be refuted by studying the fighting reports.

Turkey: The government announced the appointment of General Ilker Basbug as the new Chief of the General Staff, replacing General Buyukanit, who will retire at the end of August. Basbug is much less likely to clash with the Justice and Development Party government than was Buyukanit. He is, however, considered tough on the Kurdish rebels and the man responsible for the cross border attacks into Iraq. He is pro-NATO and pro-Israel.

Zimbabwe: President Robert Mugabe was forced to return to Zimbabwe after the Chinese Communist Party pressured him not to attend the opening ceremony for the Beijing Olympics, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. Mugabe arrived in Hong Kong yesterday, but lobbying from political leaders persuaded the Chinese government to push Mugabe not to attend. A Mugabe spokesman wrote in a Zimbabwean newspaper that Mugabe is not attending the ceremony because talks between the government and opposition in Zimbabwe are too important.

Talks have resumed between Zimbabwe's ruling party and the main opposition on a power-sharing arrangement. Officials said the delay was so that delegates could consult their leaders on possible next steps.

Attempts to control Zimbabwe's multimillion percent annual inflation rate had an inauspicious beginning on 1 August when banks turned customers away after running out of cash. Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono sees the introduction of a new currency that will lop off ten zeroes from the old currency, effectively revaluing Z$10 billion to one Zimbabwe dollar, as the solution to the country's hyperinflation.

Angola: President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said on Monday that Angola would have parliamentary elections every four years, after holding its first national vote in 16 years on 5 September, according to the BBC. In a rare radio address, dos Santos appealed to all political parties to maintain the peace as the country recovers from the 27-year civil war that ended in 2002.

"This moment represents an unprecedented step towards the normalization of the political life of the country and will improve the democratic state," said dos Santos. "From now on legislative elections will be held regularly, with periodic renewals every four years in accordance with the constitution."

The official election campaign for the elections kicks off on Tuesday, 5 August, with ten parties and four coalitions competing for votes. Each party will be given five minutes of television time each day and 10 minutes on the radio to appeal to voters. A total of 5,198 candidates will contest 220 parliamentary seats.

Angola is Africa's biggest oil producer, producing 1.26 million barrels per day. Gross Domestic Product is $91.29 billion and has averaged more than 15 per cent growth per year between 2004 and 2007, according to the CIA Fact Book. However, 70% of the 12.5 million people live on less than $2 a day. This is a study in democracy.

Venezuela: For the record. President Chavez said yesterday that Russia completed delivery of 24 Su-30MK fighters and warned the U.S. 4th Fleet to stay outside Venezuelan waters. "We've received the 24 Sukhoi aircraft" complete with pilots, crews and missiles, Chavez said on his weekly radio program. "Any gringo ship that sails into brown waters (river waters) will itself turn brown and go to the bottom, because they'll not get through."

The air force is starting all over, now that the US has terminated support for its F-16s. The shift to a Russian-based system of maintenance and logistics ensures that the Venezuelan air force will remain a propaganda show piece but not a fighting force for years, assuming the Russians provide the repair and spare parts they promise. That itself would be a first.

End of NightWatch for 4 August.