NightWatch

For the Night of 28 July 2008

Cambodia: Update. The ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) increased its control of parliament in Sunday’s elections, according to unofficial results announced by a CPP spokesman. The party won 60 percent of the vote, according to the statement, which will give it 91 of the 123 seats in parliament – an increase of 18. The government party has sufficient seats to govern without a coalition for the first time in 15 years, the spokesman said.

The populist opposition Sam Rainsy Party gained two seats increasing its total to 26. The royalist Funcinpec party dropped from 26 seats to one. Official results are expected in early August.

Bangladesh-India: India’s Chief of the Army Staff, General Deepak Kapoor, began an official visit to Bangladesh today, his first since his appointment last September. The visit reciprocates the February visit to India by Bangladesh General Moeen U Ahmed. Press coverage thus far indicates this is a familiarity visit with tours and demonstrations.

The Indian Army’s operations in support of the Bengalis in 1971 were responsible for the independence of Bangladesh. Military exchanges tend to become more frequent when Pakistan becomes unstable, as now. The Indians want to ensure that the eastern border with Bangladesh remains quiet.

India-Pakistan: Security incidents along the Line of Control in Kashmir are increasing in frequency and number. The Indian Army leadership said it considers the Line of Control and the ceasefire since October 2003 to be under severe stress.

According to an Indian Army spokesman, between 10 and 12 Pakistan soldiers crossed 200 meters (650 feet) into Indian territory to “object to the setting up of a post by Indian army soldiers”. The infiltration took place at 3:00 pm (0930 GMT) in a mountainous area northwest of Srinagar. The Pakistan leader was carrying a white flag. After a verbal exchange they shot dead an Indian soldier

Indian army spokesman Brigadier Gopala Krishnan Murali described today’s incident in the Kupwara sector in northwestern Kashmir as a “brazen violation of ceasefire.” In a continuing exchange of small arms fire, one Indian soldier was killed and the Indians estimate “three or four” Pakistani soldiers were killed in “retaliatory fire.”

Indian press reported two other incidents occurred during the night of 27 July. The Indian Army reported it thwarted an infiltration attempt killing four militants, also in the Kupwara sector, which is an infiltration route from Pakistan to Indian Kashmir. The second incident was an exchange of gunfire with militants in a separate location. Pakistani press has not reported on these two. Pakistan Army information chief Major General Abbas told the press he had no information about the incidents but would check.

The Indian explanation of what transpired seems incomplete, omitting facts such as raised tempers and angry gestures. Nevertheless, the shooting as reported looks like a trap. Including the three incidents in the past 24 hours, seven have taken place in the last 11 days. Indian press dates the resumption of security incidents along the Line of Control to May, but they were isolated.

Seven incidents in less than two weeks is the highest total for any comparable period in the last five years since the ceasefire began. They indicate a pattern of provocation to increase tension with India and evidently to embarrass Pakistan’s parliamentary government, which must contend with violence on both borders. Mortar fire, machinegun bursts and artillery exchanges are the next escalation steps. If those occur, India’s patience will be exhausted quickly, unless honest brokers intervene to keep the peace.

Pakistan: Four senior members of the Pakistan Taliban umbrella group, Tehrik-e-Taliban, from Bajaur Agency in northwestern Pakistan announced they are defecting from the group to form their own alliance, called the Tahrike-e-Taliban Al Jihad, GEO News reported today. They resigned because some members of Tehrik-e-Taliban killed innocent people in Mohmand Agency and no action was taken against them.

This is the second time this month a group of fighters has announced a break with the Pakistani Taliban leadership over an issue. The prior group was defeated on 19 July by the fighters of the mainstream Pakistani Taliban loyal to Baitullah Mehsud, according to multiple Afghan press reports. Asia Times Online analysis is that the earlier split was an attempt by Pakistan’s intelligence to cause a rupture that would pit competing militant groups against each other with one group supported by the government. The pro-government group lost the gun fight.

The first effort failed miserably and this looks very similar in style and tone. The problem with government attempts to suborn and subvert the tribes in the past seven years is that all have backfired by making the mainstream Pakistani Taliban stronger and more hostile to the government.

In Swat District of North West Frontier Province, on 28 July militants killed three government security officials because they tortured two militants while they were in custody, according to the BBC. The government has imposed a curfew and arrested suspects. Authorities officially have a peace agreement with Maulana Fazlullah, the local Pakistani Taliban leader, and his fighters, but it is not enforceable.

Turkey: The Constitutional Court formally began deliberations of the charge against the ruling Justice and Development Party that is has undermined the secular nature of the Turkish state. The Court announced last week that it will deliberate daily and a ruling is expected in early August.

Zimbabwe: Update. Press reports from South Africa indicate the four days of talks between President Mugabe’s representatives and those of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai are deadlocked over Mugabe’s offer of a “third vice presidency” position to Tsvangirai in a national unity government. The existing vice presidents are ceremonial positions. The offer appears deliberately insulting. Some news services said the parties asked for mediation, but others reported Mugabe’s men departed for Zimbabwe.

Bolivia: Six of nine Bolivian regional departments have called into question the rules regulating the 10 August referendum that will test the mandate of President Evo Morales and other elected officials, La Razon reported July 28. The regional courts have called on the National Electoral Court to clarify the referendum rules, and to place the referendum on hold until the rules are made clear. Current rules state that officials can only win approval to stay in office if they gain a greater percentage and a greater absolute number of votes than they originally obtained when elected.

President Morales is using the referendum as the mechanism to halt the move by some departments for greater regional autonomy. He clearly expects a landslide in his favor, but that is not likely to solve the quasi-secession by the richest departments. It will set the stage for the next round of the struggle which seems certain to require military force to settle at some point.

End of NightWatch for 28 July.