NightWatch

For the Night of 16 July 2008

Thailand-Cambodia: About 250 Thai and an unknown number of Cambodian soldiers are in the vicinity of the Preah Vihear temple in northern Cambodia because of a border dispute. The site is an 11^th century Hindu temple complex dedicated to Shiva that the International Court of Justice awarded to Cambodia in a 1962 ruling. Although the Court ruled that Preah Vihear belongs to Cambodia, the border around the ruins remains in dispute and the most accessible entrance is at the foot of a mountain in Thailand. The Thai still claim 1.8 sq mi of the complex grounds

There is little danger of fighting. The soldiers from both sides were reported to be sheltering in the same pagoda. Both sides apparently are under orders to not use force, but the issue is getting news coverage and merits it but not because of the troops. In Thailand this is another issue that the Thai royalists and Bangkok political elite are using to unsettle the populist government of Prime Minister Samak. This time the accusation is that Samak’s government illegally tried to cede national territory and rights.

The UN approved the site for inclusion in its World Heritage list on 8 July. Earlier, the Thai government had signed a joint communiqué with Cambodia, but a Thai court ruled that the joint communiqué, which former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama had signed with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An, was an international agreement that could affect the national boundary. Under article 190 of the Constitution, the government had to win parliamentary approval before the signing. In the UN list, the site is listed solely under Cambodia.

Readers will recall in 2003 there were riots in Phnom Penh and the Thai embassy was burned over false rumors that a famous Thai actress said the famous Cambodian Angkor Wat ruins were Thai. Guardianship of culture is a serious issue.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has exploited this as a personal and national triumph and has organized national celebrations, as part of his election plans to have himself re-elected in the 27 July elections. Hun Sen has been Prime Minister since 1998.

In Thailand, the reaction has been quite different. Critics of Prime Minister Samak are using the temple dispute against the government. The parliamentary opposition is considering impeachment motions against the entire cabinet. The National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) – the government oversight body created by the generals before they restored democracy -- resolved to consider criminal actions against the Samak cabinet for failing to seek parliamentary approval for its joint communiqué concerning the Preah Vihear temple listing.

An example of the nationalist sentiment is a Thai political expose published today that alleged shady deals between officials in the two governments in which Thai support for the UN recognition of the site was exchanged for Cambodia approval for Thai business interests linked to the cabinet to develop oil concessions in the Gulf of Thailand, ostensibly in cooperation with Chevron.

The significance of the court ruling against the government and the yellow journalism is that these are the same issues that were used to overthrow the Thaksin government: alienation of Thai national property and corruption. Samak is considered to be a proxy for Thaksin. A military coup is not in the offing, as there was against Thaksin, but Thai politics remain unsettled, despite the restoration of democracy. This is a study in democracy.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: NATO and Afghan forces in Paktika Province, which abuts Pakistan’s North Waziristan Agency, retaliated against rockets fired from Pakistan. The counter fire was coordinated with Pakistani authorities, according to a spokesman. An International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) base had "received multiple rocket attacks from militants inside Pakistan," ISAF said in a statement. "The troops identified a qalat (mound) as the point of origin of the attacks and responded in self-defense with a combination of fires from attack helicopters and artillery into Pakistan," according to The News.

The area of this engagement is not in Konar/Nurestan Provinces north of Jalalabad, where the nine American soldiers were killed and 15 wounded on the 13^th. This area is in southeast Afghanistan. The significance is that this is the area where border region residents in both countries claimed yesterday that a buildup of forces was taking place and expected an attack. Spokesmen in Afghanistan and Pakistan denied a buildup was occurring, but today’s exchange of fire will not persuade the locals, who started making their claims two days ago. That might signify an operational security problem because the NATO/ISAF response looks like a well-prepared ambush.

Pakistan: Security. The News reported that elements of the Pakistan Army, the Frontier Constabulary (FC) and the Frontier Police, supported by gunships and artillery, began an operation today to take back control of two areas near Hangu where tribal fighters killed 17 Frontier Constabulary constables and burned their outpost. Authorities also imposed a curfew on Hangu town after the local Jirga of tribal elders failed to defuse the tension. Troops seized the “stronghold” of the local fighters, but apparently without casualties to either side.

The BBC reported that Mohmand Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas has joined Bajaur has having permanent Islamic courts created by the Pakistani Taliban. The Islamists divided Mohmand into four judicial zones with two judges each and a permanent court building in each plus one senior judge to handle appeals.

Pakistan’s laws governing religious courts in the agencies are fairly permissive, but limit their jurisdiction to religious matters, which are often difficult to discern. The religious courts do not replace civil courts but they have much more local impact because of the swiftness and harshness of their punishments. Like the original Taliban in Afghanistan in 1995 and 1996, the appeal of the Pakistani Taliban is that they bring order and the government cannot maintain it.

Mohmand has not been mentioned in Pakistani or Indian media as an area of militant attacks or as a base area for Pakistani Taliban, as have the two Waziristan agencies. Bajaur also has dropped below the limit of visibility. Nevertheless, the public establishment of a permanent judiciary is an exercise of governmental authority.

Note to new analysts: Quiet areas are not necessarily stable or secure, especially when there is fighting in adjacent regions. Opposition fighters require a quiet secure region for rest and medical treatment no less than the forces of order. Mohmand and Bajaur appear to be under Pakistani Taliban administration.

Politics. Pakistan Peoples Party leader Asif Ali Zardari is said to have launched a move to convince his coalition partner Nawaz Sharif to accompany him to the US in a bid to convince the White House and the State Department to let them get rid of President Pervez Musharraf so as to stabilize Pakistan.

Sources of The News claimed that Zardari was convinced that if both of them visited Washington and met the top US officials to discuss the fate of Musharraf, they might get quick and desired results. The sources believe this would end the long political deadlock between the two main ruling coalition partners over the issue of impeachment of Musharraf and restoration of the deposed judges.

The invitation is said to have come because Nawaz Sharif has decided to increase pressure on Asif Zardari, telling local reporters that the next round of talks between the PPP and the Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N would be decisive.

For the first time since the two parties formed a coalition government in March this year, Nawaz indicated that he might part company with Zardari if he failed to execute both his public and secret commitments on restoration of the deposed judges and impeachment of President Musharraf.

This is the second so-called breakthrough event that Zardari has dangled in public. Supposedly he obtained approval for impeaching Musharraf during his trip to Saudi Arabia. Evidently not. The lack of movement on basic issues is spawning these kinds of stories daily. The deadlock continues, and the coalition continues to weaken.

Afghanistan-Iran: Bloomberg published an article about Iranian investment in Herat, the largest city in western Afghanistan and the nearest to Iran. In 2006, Iran built a 200 mile highway that links Herat and Mashhad in northeastern Iran. Iran supplies electric power to Herat, which has a population of 350,000, and is in the process of building a railroad to run along the highway. When completed it will be the only major city serviced by a railroad. The only other rail link is a short spur from Turkmenistan that terminates at the border town of Torgundhi, just north of Herat.

Iran paved half of Herat's streets and 40 miles of highway leading north, built schools and health clinics and partnered with Afghan companies in an industrial park, according to the report. Observers report Herat is cleaner than Kabul, safer and more prosperous. Iranian investment in this region is estimated at $500 million, according to the Bloomberg report.

Herat was once a capital of Persia and has gravitated towards Iran more than to Kabul. Its history of passive aggressive resistance to direction from Kabul has made it a lesser claimant on national resources and should have impeded its return to normality. However, Iranian investment has negated that condition and been a source of relief for President Karzai, albeit at a cost. It is an Iranian-influenced enclave and one of the brighter spots in Afghanistan. Karzai has been very cautious in public statements to avoid offending the Iranians.

Taliban have tended to avoid Herat Province this year, attacking 32 times in six months, but only five attacks were inside Herat City. Instead they are focusing on Farah Province, the next province to the south, which has become a core province in the fighting.

Iran: For the record. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a personal threat against American President Bush on 16 July. "If George Bush orders a military strike against Iran, even if he leaves it up to the next Administration, the Iranian nation will sue and punish him even after his term in his office is over," Khamenei said.

This statement is reminiscent of North Korea’s style of public diplomacy. A predictable tactic is to have an authoritative source make a bellicose statement on the day the country agrees to hold negotiations with an enemy. The tough talk apparently is intended to assure domestic audiences that talking is not a sign of weakness and to warn enemies against trying to take advantage of the situation because the country is on guard. Even so, even the North Koreans seldom threaten a head of state, including a South Korean president.

Saudi Arabia-Iraq: For the record. Saudi King Abdallah called for Iraq to "free itself from outside interference" in an interview published July 16 by Italy's La Repubblica newspaper. The ideal solution, Abdullah said, would be "one country for all Iraqis, forgetting about ethnicity, or political and religious affiliations."

Today the King is in Spain co-hosting with King Juan Carlos an interfaith conference on tolerance. This is Abdallah’s third major event of this kind.

According to the BBC, unidentified critics charge that Saudi Arabia is the last country on earth to preach tolerance to others and forgetting about religious affiliations. In the Italian press article, Abdallah did not define to whom he was referring as the agents of “outside interference.”

Sudan: A U.N.-African Union peacekeeper was shot and killed in Darfur region today, a week after militiamen killed seven peacekeepers, a U.N. spokeswoman said. The peacekeeper for the joint U.N.-AU mission in Darfur (UNAMID) was killed while on patrol in West Darfur, U.N. spokeswoman told reporters. She had no other details about the incident.

The Sudanese parliament on Wednesday condemned the indictment of the country’s president by an international prosecutor, arguing that the move endangered vital peace negotiations, especially in the war torn Darfur region. The 450-seat house passed a resolution at the end of a heated session in which scores of lawmakers railed against the indictment of the Sudanese leader by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges in Darfur and warned that it would weaken President Omar al-Bashir and embolden rebels to abandon peace negotiations.

Together the two events above signify that westerners are now targets. The killing speaks for itself. The resolution describes acts of foreign meddling against which Sudan has a right of self-defense. Planning for an evacuation of non-combatants by NATO governments is in order and UNAMID had best be on guard.

End of NightWatch for 16 July.